Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Gold Dragons Grand Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Richard_Mills
Zheng Bijian, a leading Chinese intellectual and reformer said: "The most important strategic choice the Chinese made was to embrace globalization."
China has made a new most important strategic choice - Asian Regionalization.
Read full article... Read full article..."In the past few years, both Chinese and foreign analysts began to reach the conclusion that China has developed a fairly consistent and coherent grand strategy... Because economic development is taken as the only way for tackling all the pressing challenges that China is facing and will face, China's grand strategy must serve the central purpose of development. Therefore, the central objective of China's Grand Strategy in the past two decades (which may well last to 2050) can be captured in just one sentence: to secure and shape a conducive environment (security, economic, and political) so that China can concentrate on its development (economic, social, and political)." ~ Tang Shiping and Zhang Yunling, China's Regional Strategy
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Whatever Happened To $100 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Paradigm Shift
Business news provider Bloomberg, November 14, cited a Tass interview in which Vladimir Putin says that Russia is prepared for "catastrophic falls" of world oil prices and export revenues – on a day when Nymex oil market players and manipultors engineered a classic "sucker's rally" with a one-day 2.5% jump in Brent and WTI prices! Putin is unlikely to be fooled by that rally and Russia, like China has been making very large gold purchases as an insurance policy on likely or probable major currency upheavals, in Russia's case including intensified attacks in the present "war on the ruble" to punish its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Austin_Galt
“Finally!” in English, “Por fin!” in Spanish and “About bloody time!!” in Australian. The belated rally in gold and silver finally got underway when it was least expected. The contrarian wins again!
The final bear market rally in gold and silver kicked off after a fake out move lower and should end with a fake out move higher. That’s the way I see it anyway. Of course the permabulls will be back out in force again calling the next great bull market now in progress and this rally should terminate when those calls reach fever pitch.
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Sunday, November 16, 2014
IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades.
In its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current period of oil abundance may be fleeting, and in fact, without heroic levels of production increases, oil markets will grow dangerously tight in the coming years.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
Gold And Silver – A Change In Suppressed Down Trend? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Until there is a clear break of elite’s central banking dominance over the gold and silver
markets, there will be no dramatic recovery reflective of where the true price for both
metals should be. Whether it is $5,000 or $10,000 for gold or $100 or $200 for silver
[the ounce], the current distorted pricing, as dictated by the paper derivative market and
not actual physical metal, will prevail demonstrating the power the elites exert at will.
The probability of the elites being “all in” has not even reached the stretching point, yet, although it may be getting there. All that remains, really, is to wait and let events take the unnatural course they have been on for several decades. The undoing of too many decades of gold/silver manipulation/suppression will not be accomplished in a single year, as it has not been over the past few years, and there is no way of knowing the time factor for change in the year[s] ahead.
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Saturday, November 15, 2014
Gold Market Capitulation? Not Likely / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_J_Kosares
If you’re waiting for capitulation in the gold market, don’t hold your breath – An argument for why the bottom in gold will come with a whimper, not a bang and why the mainstream media might be looking for capitulation in the wrong place.
Read full article... Read full article...ca·pit·u·la·tion noun \kə-ˌpi-chə-ˈlā-shən\
When investors give up any previous gains in stock price by selling equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Still Lower Prices Ahead For Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sy_Harding
Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further.
In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure could build further through the first half of 2015.”
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Gold Stocks Apocalypse / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
This latest capitulation by gold-stock investors has left this hated sector at truly apocalyptic lows. Bearish consensus is so extreme that pretty much everyone believes the gold miners are doomed to spiral lower forever. But today’s horrendous gold-stock price levels aren’t righteous, they’re a temporary emotional fiction conjured by epic fear. Trading at fundamentally-absurd levels, gold stocks are due to mean revert far higher.
Friday, November 14, 2014
The Looming Uranium Crisis: Strategic Implications for the Colder War / Commodities / Uranium
By: Marin_Katusa
In the wake of one singular event—the disaster at Fukushima in March 2011, the effects of which are still being felt today across the planet—nuclear power has seemingly fallen into utter disrepute, at least in the popular mind. But this is largely an illusion.
It’s true that Japan took all 52 of its nuclear plants offline after Fukushima and sold much of its uranium inventory. South Korea followed with shutdowns of its own. Germany permanently mothballed eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022. Austria and Spain have enacted laws to cease construction on new nuclear power stations. Switzerland is phasing them out. A majority of the other European nations is also opposed.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
My Secret Gold Strike Investing Strategy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Gold has taken a tremendous beating in recent weeks and is now tumbling along at four-year lows of $1,160/ounce.
Things are so bad that you can actually buy the Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (NYSEMKT:CEF) – a popular gold and silver bullion investment vehicle – at a 10%-11% discount to the price of gold, because traders think the price of gold will drop even lower.
Frankly, I think that’s fantastic news.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Why Lower Crude Oil Prices Won’t Kill the Renewable Energy Boom / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Money_Morning
Kent Moors writes: Whenever oil prices drop, everyone always wonders how it will affect wind and solar power.
It follows from the traditional assumption that renewables like these are only competitive when oil and natural gas prices are high.
After all, the early stages of wind and solar power came with a hefty front-loaded price tag, requiring massive government subsidies to both producers and end users to get off the ground.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Gold Price Support at $1000/oz / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and gold miners have rebounded but remain in a technically weak position. Both markets have failed to move beyond the highs made last Friday. The same happened to the gold stocks in early October. They exploded higher one day but failed to muster anything after that. At that time Gold continued its rally for a few weeks. This time Gold has struggled to sustain Friday’s gains. While we are coming to the end of the bear market and one should not be too bearish, the downside target of $1000/oz Gold remains well in play.
Friday, November 14, 2014
Silver Wheaton and Agnico Eagle Mines Gold and Silver Stocks Chart Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Austin_Galt
Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW)
Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW) is the largest precious metals streaming company in the world and is listed on the Canadian Stock Exchange (TSX) with a market capitalisation of over CAD$6.5b. The company generally focuses on low cost, long life gold and silver assets and currently has 19 operating mines around the globe. Price last traded at $20.41. To learn more about the company, please visit its website at www.silverwheaton.com
Let's investigate the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold Sector Review - Inflation, Fundamentals, Psychology/Sentiment and Technicals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Gary_Tanashian
Below is a summary of some of the aspects we follow in NFTRH to gauge a future investment stance on the gold sector. It is much more complex than simply hearing dogma that seems to make sense and then holding on for dear life…
Inflation
The hype is dying. 10 years of inflation hysterics have gone down the drain even as global policy makers pull out inflationary bazookas and use them at the slightest hint of economic trouble. The BoJ’s recent action was just the latest and most striking in its timing. Global markets were bouncing within correction mode and the Yen had just pinged a key resistance level. The BoJ then blew the Yen up with policy designed to at once reward risk takers and asset holders and mercilessly punish the Japanese people, renowned for the ethic of saving.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold Three Steps Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: John_Mauldin
Jared Dillian writes: I have been a gold bull, unrelentingly, since 2005. It has been quite an adventure.
Nine years ago, I was 31—still pretty young. I hadn’t read enough Austrian economics to even understand why I should like gold, but I did nonetheless. Besides, it was going up. And coincidentally, the folks at State Street had just come out with GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and I was a market maker in it. Without GLD to invest in, I wonder if I would have had the inclination to learn about investing in gold futures or physical gold.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
“Paper Gold” and Its Effect on the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Casey_Research
By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist
Gold dropped to new lows of $1,130 per ounce last week. This is surprising because it doesn’t square with the fundamentals. China and India continue to exert strong demand on gold, and interest in bullion coins remains high.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Our Take on the Swiss Gold Referendum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We have recently been asked to comment on the upcoming referendum in Switzerland on gold. In particular, we were asked if this could be the turning point for the gold (and other precious metals) market that has been declining for more than 2 years now. The simple law of supply and demand dictates that when the demand for something increases, its price should go up. However, things are rarely simple in the financial markets and it’s definitely not simple in case of gold. Will this be the start of a domino effect and escalation of gold price? You’ll find our take on this timely matter below.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Now Is A Good Time To Buy Gold Says Fidelity Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Joe Wickwire, research analyst and portfolio manager at Fidelity investments, presented some very grounded, reasonable arguments as to why one should buy gold at the LBMA Precious Metals Conference in Lima, Peru which concluded on Tuesday.
Fidelity Investments are a largely family owned mutual fund and financial services company. It is one of the largest mutual fund and financial services groups in the world. Founded in 1946, the company has since served North American investors. This year they were voted best investment company in an online broker review by Stockbroker.com. They have gradually moved up in the rankings from eighth place in 2011.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold's Smoking Gun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I want to explore the relationship between the US dollar, the Japaneses Yen and gold. Most investors know that a rising US dollar is usually a bad sign for commodities and the precious metals complex. When the US dollar is falling commodities and the precious metals complex usually do pretty well. When the US dollar topped out in 2000 that's when gold and commodities started their bull markets that lasted until 2011. Since that time the US dollar has been slowly trending higher while most commodities and the precious metals complex have been moving lower. This long term monthly chart for the US dollar shows you the high in 2000 which marked the beginning of gold's bull market. At the bottom left hand side of the chart, in big base #2, point #4 marks the high for gold's bull market. Since that low at point #4 you can see how the US dollar has been slowly rising since 2011 which was the peak for gold and most commodities. One last note on the chart below. The US dollar is now in its third month of a breakout move from big base #2 which is a fractal of big base #1. If you've been wondering why the US dollar has been so strong lately it's because it's in breakout mode. This is what a breakout looks and feels like.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold Long Short GDXJ, DGZ ETF Technical Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
By: Austin_Galt
The analysis includes GDXJ which is a long gold fund and DGZ which is a short gold fund.
GDXJ Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF
The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) is an equity index that provides exposure to small and medium sized companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining. It is listed on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) with price last trading at $25.73.
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