Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 09, 2009
The Fed’s U.S. Treasuries Bubble Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
A few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff’s social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of “buy the rumor and sell the fact”.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Debt Crisis 2009, What must our Creditors be Thinking? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Chris_Galakoutis
I read an article recently about problem gambling. You can't help but notice all the poker on television these days. Gambling, lotteries, and all forms of speculation become more popular in inflationary times, as more people have difficulty making ends meet. Problem gambling has been known to strain relationships, interfere with responsibilities at home and work, and lead to financial catastrophe, as more good money is thrown after bad.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
UK Interest Rate Cut to New All Time Low of 1.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England cut UK interest rates earlier today by 0.5% to 1.5%, the lowest that the base rate has been in the BoE's 315 year history. The series of rate cuts are a belated panic response to the UK economy plunging over the edge of a cliff that looks set to endure GDP contraction of 3% this year which is worse than any 12 month period since World War 2. Sterling rallied from near record lows against the Euro buoyed by a less than expected cut as many market commentators had expected rates to be cut by 1% today. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bills, Can you hear the Bond Market POP!? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Daniel_Smolski
Keynesian capitalism continues to bring with it a saga of never ending bubbles. In just the past decade, we have been faced with the internet bubble bursting of 2000 and a massive real estate bubble that has brought the American economy to its knees. All are examples of a gross misallocation of resources caused by an excess money supply searching for home. The recent credit crunch has provided us with an opportunity to deflate and wipe away all unnecessary liquidity but the Federal Reserve, along with their posy of world bankers, have chosen instead to attempt to reflate a balloon that has already burst. Turning on all the world's liquidity taps has thus far proven to be working. We have beaten down the “evil” that is deflation and we look forward to an era of continued inflation. Inflation that will, undoubtedly, spiral out of control and potentially lead to a period of hyper-inflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Your Country Needs You to Buy Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adrian_Ash
"Are you 100% American? Prove it! Buy US government bonds..." - Poster from the US Treasury promoting the Third Liberty Loan, 1918
THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER, David Lloyd George, joked in 1915 that it was Britain's political and financial stability which would always enable it to raise "the last million".
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Dollar Dead Bounce Ends, Treasury Bond Bubble Begins to Dissipate / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The marquee line best describing the past two to three months has been that the Dollar Death Dance has been fueled by failure of US banks & corporations, along with sponsored assaults against speculative hedge funds. The climate has changed from liquidation and bankruptcies, obviously steered and exploited by the Powerz, toward more legitimate attempts to have a recovery initiative take root across the landscape, It is fast approaching a wasteland. The most vivid signal of market manipulation, intended to benefit the USGovt borrowing costs, and designed to promote the totally false notion of a Flight to Safety, has been the USTreasury bubble. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I have been bearish on long term Treasury bonds long before it was fashionable, and this past week, Barron's has a cover story on Treasuries entitled, "Get Out Now!" It is their belief that "the bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on government debt sharply lower." Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Zero Interest Rate Policy and the Liquidity Trap / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report (published 4 Jan 09). I had a nice break over Christmas and the New Year, having spent a week in Norway skiing enjoying guaranteed snow and a good exchange rate to Sterling, thus avoiding the horrible reality of a less than 1:1 Sterling/Euro tourist rate. Sometimes all this macro-econobabble has its uses.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Captain_Hook
They've done it now. The Fed has revealed the level of panic they are in behind the scenes by cutting rates to zero and promising unbounded quantitative easing . Here, it should be noted that based on remarks from the Fed Policy Statement Tuesday, quantitative easing is now set to go beyond the bailout style monetiziations of financials that have primarily characterized re-inflation efforts under the gaze of Bernanke and Paulson so far to include just about anybody who needs ‘social assistance', which apparently includes all degrees of bad investors / speculators these days. Make a bad investment. No worries if you're an American apparently as ‘the check is in the mail'. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
U.S. Banks Refuse to Detail How They’re Spending Federal Bailout Money / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: After receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded federal bailout money, the biggest U.S. banks say they can't track how that money is being spent.
Some of the banks are outright refusing to discuss the matter, a new study has found. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Primed for Inevitable Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_Lamont
As Treasury Bill yields fell during the early 1930's, Treasury Bonds moved in the opposite direction . As you can see from Table 48 (also from A History of Interest Rates ), Bonds rose in yield (fell in price) during the banking crises of 1930-32. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 02, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Ripe for Explosion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Browne
Bonds in 2009: A Tough Call - The second half of 2008 will be remembered as the era in which justifiably panicked investors fled the global equity markets and flooded into the bond markets, particularly the U.S. Treasury market. As I write this, the migration largely continues.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Investment Opportunity in Municipal Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Derrick
We all know that 2008 has been a rough year for virtually all investors, and the municipal market has not been immune. Municipals, however, have weathered the storm better than most asset classes. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Grossly Overbought Bond Markets Continue Chugging Higher into New Year / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for an 8th consecutive week as the Long Bond future continues its unstoppable march higher. There are a couple of undercurrents that I would like to discuss heading into the New Year. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
U.S. Corporate Bonds Show Recovery Progress / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Several US bonds types have mostly recovered from the steep losses of October. The differences in recovery generally correspond to the position of the bonds in the capital structure, or to credit quality.
After this difficult year, we expect more investors will consider bonds as part of their portfolio and a volatility moderator.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
ETF Bond Yields Confirm Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
The table below presents the SEC 30-day yield and the portfolio yield-to-maturity reported for most of the Barclay's iShares bond ETFs.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Investment Tip / Interest-Rates / Investing 2009
By: Richard_Shaw
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are more attractively priced than ordinary Treasuries of the same maturity.
About Ordinary Treasuries
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Credit Crisis Watch: Credit Market Freeze Continues to Thaw / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Are the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world's financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about – a regular review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is under way.
Updating the report at this time is also to gauge the credit markets' reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) announcement of a week ago about a Fed funds rate cut and specific actions that would move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “ Words from the Wise ” review.)
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Monday, December 22, 2008
Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 2) / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
This post is a continuation of Dangerous Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 1) . If you have not yet done so, please read part 1. The symptoms of the FIV disease are complex. Part 1 addresses the symptoms and part 2 below continues with more symptoms and a discussion about preventative measures and cures.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bond Steamroller Keeps Chugging Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for a 7th consecutive weeks as the Long Bond future rallied an unprecedented 29 points since the end of October. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be just another blow-off top. It is really no big deal, blow-offs have been a dime a dozen this year, so there is no reason to get too excited. I apologize for plagiarizing my own work from last week, but I just could not think of presenting it in a more appropriate manner. Heading into the year end, the signs of extreme distress remain evident in the bond market. Read full article... Read full article...