Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 22, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Remains Focused On Inflation Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market improved a point in the long end, as traders focused on what ultimately matters for bonds: the inflation data. As per the comments below, the latest slew of data showed that inflation remains subdued both at the wholesale and retail level. As a result bonds remain well supported regardless of an ongoing relentless rally in equities and other risky assets. Last week the market traded based on the Fed meeting and the inflation data, next week the focus may shift back to the Treasury auctions again.
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Monday, March 22, 2010
BubbleOmics: U.S. Treasuries are Not a Bubble, Federal Debt Target 150% GDP / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Last September I started jumping up and down crying “US Treasuries are a Bubble – TAKE COVER”.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
The Dummies Guide To Valuing A CDO: Reference Barnett-Hart’s Thesis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
The “News” over the past eighteen months, is that the people who said that they knew how to do a rating on a CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation), now say they don’t know how to do that.
And the people who said they knew how to value a CDO, or a RMBS (Residential Mortgaged Backed Security), now say they can’t do that either.
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Saturday, March 20, 2010
Faber Expects U.S. Interest Rates to Stay at Zero Forever (Below the Rate of Inflation) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Submissions
"I think interest rates forever in the US will be at zero. By zero I mean below the rate of inflation" Marc Faber told CNBC. A slowing U.S. Economy will be followed by more money printing that will prevent a stock market crash. Eventually Governments will go bust, but before they will go bust they will print a lot of money.
Friday, March 19, 2010
The Taylor Rule Tool for Predicting Fed Interest Rate Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Casey_Research
Bud Conrad, Editor, The Casey Report writes: On March 3, I heard John Taylor over lunch at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. In his talk he reviewed the government’s bailouts and their effects on our economy. If you aren’t familiar with Taylor, he co-authored, along with Bob Hall, the macroeconomics textbook most widely used these days. In addition, he served as undersecretary of the Treasury in the early Bush years where, among other responsibilities, he was tasked with bringing a new currency to Iraq.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Another Challenge for Government Bonds? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Mike_Larson
It should be pretty clear that I’m bearish on the bond market. The massive budget deficits and debts we’re racking up should hammer Treasury prices. So should the steadily growing concern about the credit quality of sovereign debts.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
The Great Credit Squeeze 2010 / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Martin_D_Weiss
If you think that the sovereign debt crisis is mostly behind us … that America’s federal deficit is turning into a non-issue … or that we can just go back to business as usual … you’d better consider the drama now unfolding in the hard numbers just released last week:
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Tison's Fiasco: Your Money's at Risk and You Don't Know It. / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
I walked the streets of Tison's Landing yesterday...
I admired the incredible neighborhood center for the use of residents, complete with soccer fields and the largest, most fully stocked playgrounds for kids I've ever seen.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, It's All The Same Trade! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
One of the frustrating aspects about this market environment is that all assets look like the same trade. Betting on equities is a bet against bonds or vice a versa, betting on bonds is a bet against equities. It is that simple. Consequently, using a tactical asset allocation strategy makes it hard to diversify away my risk as I end up being all in on essentially what has become the same trade.
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Monday, March 08, 2010
Tax Payer Bailed Out Banks Over Charging on Mortgage Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Last week saw the one year anniversary of the Bank of England dropping its base rate to the historic low level of 0.50%.
During the last year some of the biggest lenders increased competitiveness, while others appear less willing or able to do so.
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
U.S. Treasury Scrambling to Offload Junk Bought During 2009 Bailout Frenzy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Martin_D_Weiss
With global investors attacking any sovereign government that’s running massive deficits or stuck with a pile of bad debts …
And with Uncle Sam obviously the world’s greatest debtor, beggar and fiat money printer …
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Brits Pounded As Debts and Deficits Hit Home. Next the U.S. / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Mike_Larson
Boy are things getting ugly in the U.K. The British currency, the pound, is getting crushed. The price of long-term British debt securities, called gilts, is heading down. And the cost of default insurance on the country’s debt is rising steadily.
My takeaway: This is but a preview of what’s to come here in the U.S.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, Till Debt Do Us Part / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Sagami
Millions, billions, trillions. It is hard to wrap your brain around numbers that big, but I think our politicians don’t even bother to try.
On February 1, President Obama released his 2010 budget that projects the U.S. deficit to grow to a record $1.56 trillion, an increase over last year’s record of $1.4 trillion deficit.
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Friday, March 05, 2010
Prospects for U.S. Dollar Treasury Debt Exports / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Prospects Not Good for What Was Once One of USA’s Greatest Export Success.
Beginning in the late nineties up to 2007 exports of debt (at that time mainly private sector “products”, now called “legacy” or “toxic”), was America’s biggest export category accounting for 21% of total exports (including debt) compared to 19% for Capital Goods (including autos and auto parts which were 4%).
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Friday, March 05, 2010
U.S. Negative Real Interest Rates, Case-Shiller CPI Now Tracking CPI-U / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's been about 4-5 months since I last talked about Case-Shiller CPI (CS-CPI). Case-Shiller CPI is formulated by substituting the Case-Shiller housing index for Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) in the CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U) index, commonly shortened to CPI.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Three ETFS to Protect From Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ron_Rowland
Wall Street is obsessed with interest rates. Many consumers are, too, especially anyone who wants to buy a home or car.
There’s a good reason for this: Debt — or you might call it “leverage” — is the lubricant that keeps the financial markets moving. Imagine a car without oil … it would soon grind to halt. The same is true of the modern economy.
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
ECB - Greece is Convincing / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
At its monthly press conference, European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet announced a further gradual reduction of emergency lending facilities. Focus of the meeting was the fiscal austerity package passed by Greece's parliament the previous day. Unlike previous commentaries, Trichet was full of praise for Greece, saying it was "extremely important that the decisions taken by Greece could be convincing because they would credibilize [sic] the adjustment program that was absolutely necessary."
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
Marc Faber Discusses U.S. Debt Default and Hyper Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Submissions
Marc Faber sets out how he expects the U.S. will handle the growing debt mountain by first monetizing the debt, then defaulting on interest payments to foreigners as the U.S. inflates the debt away through high inflation or even hyper inflation.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Investors Beware of Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Thorsten_Polleit
I. The Incentives for Holding and Issuing Government Debt
Many people invest their savings in government bonds. They are obviously of the opinion that government bonds offer an attractive yield and represent fairly little risk.
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Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Long-end Treasuries Drives Valuation Of Stocks And Real Estate: Where Are They Going? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Not many people say this, but recently I noticed one of the guys at Minyanville saying…out of the blue, that the “fundamental” value of a stock is the best estimate of what the earnings will be discounted using the best estimate of what the 30 Year will be.
I almost had a heart attack!
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