Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - Nadeem_Walayat
2.UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Downtrend Looks Set to Continue - Clive_Maund
4.Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - Austin_Galt
5.New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - GoldCore
6.Gold and Silver Stocks or General Stock Market Indices? - Rambus_Chartology
7.“Forgive Us Our Debts” – Only Way To Prevent Economic Meltdown - GoldCore
8.UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - Nadeem_Walayat
9.12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - GoldCore
10.Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - Mike_Shedlock
Last 5 days
Gold Price and Mining Stocks Decline Together - 3rd Mar 15
Financial Slaughter - The Silence of the Lambs - 3rd Mar 15
Bondholders “Bailed In” In Austria – New Banking Crisis? - 3rd Mar 15
How to Profit from the Coming Oil Price Crunch - 3rd Mar 15
Is Japan Zimbabwe? Could Japan go Hyperinflation? - 3rd Mar 15
Bill Gross Says Fed May Raise Rates 25 Basis Points in June - 3rd Mar 15
The Secret Behind My Hedge Fund Trade on U.S. Housing Market - 3rd Mar 15
BLS CPI Lie - How's That Dsflation Working Out for You? - 3rd Mar 15
Tesla Bonfire of the Money Printers’ Vanities - 3rd Mar 15
Gold Demand in UK, Europe and U.S. – Reuters Interview GoldCore - 2nd Mar 15
Watch the Skies... for Investor Profits - 2nd Mar 15
How Investors Can Identify the Best Small-Cap Stocks - 2nd Mar 15
Gold and Silver - What If the Precious Metal Stocks Bulls are Back - 2nd Mar 15
Students Getting a PhD in Subprime Debt - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 3 - 2nd Mar 15
The Stock Market is in The Process of Major Top! - 2nd Mar 15
Stock Market Weakening Trend - 2nd Mar 15
Gold Price Glimmer of Hope - 1st Mar 15
Stock Markets Are Riding High on Thin Air - 1st Mar 15
Varoufakis vs. the Troika - Showdown in Athens - 1st Mar 15
Subprime Rising - U.S. Debt Breaking Bad Part 2 - 1st Mar 15
Gold CoT Improving, But ... - 1st Mar 15
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? - 28th Feb 15
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others - 28th Feb 15
Stocks Bull Market Continues - 28th Feb 15
U.S. Debt Breaking Bad - 28th Feb 15
NATO Frankenstein - When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control - 28th Feb 15
Gold And Silver Insanity Prevails; Precious Metals Without Direction - 28th Feb 15
Fed Raising U.S. Interest Rates - Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide - 28th Feb 15
Don't Let This Stock Market Myth Cost You Your Gains - 28th Feb 15
Recession is On The Way; Beat The Stock Market Crowd, Panic Now! - 28th Feb 15
Stock Market Indexes Creeping Towards the Edge - 28th Feb 15
GGD Going for Mexican Gold - 27th Feb 15
Foreign Real Estate Is the New Swiss Bank Account - 27th Feb 15
10 Reasons Washington Has War Fever - 27th Feb 15
Gold and the Euro Tragedy, Iraq 3.0, Ukraine Conflict Three Ring Circus - 27th Feb 15
Deepak Chopra - New Age Genius or Bullshit Expert? - Video - 27th Feb 15 - Videos
New Greece Drachma Revealed Amid Bank Runs - Greeks Buy Gold Sovereigns - 27th Feb 15
Will Month Long Stocks Rally Continue? - 27th Feb 15
The Only Public Hedge Fund You Should Own - 27th Feb 15
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election - 27th Feb 15
Why America is Ungovernable - The Republicans’ Civil War - 27th Feb 15
Gold vs Gold Stocks: Bullish Anomaly Developing? - 27th Feb 15
I Heart Capitalism, Nasdaq Stocks, Then And Now - 27th Feb 15
The Fed’s History of Assassination - 27th Feb 15 i
Gold Bull Market Forecast - Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments - 27th Feb 15
"Audit the Fed"? We've Already Done That (Well, Kind of) - 26th Feb 15
Forget Peak Oil; Worry About Peak Demand - 26th Feb 15
Currency Wars, Again - 26th Feb 15
The Fed Waited Too Long: Here Comes Inflation - 26th Feb 15
Investing Inertia Won’t Keep Your Cash Safe - 26th Feb 15
The Net Neutrality Scam - 26th Feb 15
Will Conservatives Out of Control Immigration Crisis Boost UKIP Election 2015 Prospects? - 26th Feb 15
EU Warns Ireland and Euro Zone of Debt Dangers - 26th Feb 15
Commodity Prices Set To Plunge Below 2008 Lows - 26th Feb 15
Ukraine Hyperinflation as Currency Plunges 44% in One Week! - 26th Feb 15
The State of the Global Markets 2015 - 53 Page Report - 26th Feb 15
NASDAQ New 15 Year High - Stock Market Death By Overdose - 25th Feb 15
12 Reasons Why Barry Ritholtz and Many UK Experts Are Mistaken On Gold - 25th Feb 15
Sugar Commodity Price To Sweeten Up - 25th Feb 15
Investor Profits from China 2,000-Year Unstoppable Trends - 25th Feb 15
How to Borrow Cheaply from a Government-Owned Bank - 25th Feb 15
Debt Be Not Proud - 25th Feb 15
Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? - 25th Feb 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The State of the Global Markets 2015

The Worst Case Scenario: Seven Potential Consequences of a U.S. Debt Default

Stock-Markets / US Debt Jul 27, 2011 - 07:44 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: Each day that passes without a deal to prevent a U.S. debt default brings the United States closer to a financial calamity that would be more severe than the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Dueling speeches from U.S. President Barack Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-OH, Monday night did nothing to resolve the impasse between Republicans and Democrats over how to reduce budget deficits and raise the debt ceiling past the $14.3 trillion limit by Aug. 2.


The contentious rhetoric of recent days has raised concerns that lawmakers will fail to reach a compromise by the deadline – with disastrous consequences.

"I've never, never seen a breakdown like this," Paul Light, a U.S. government scholar, told Reuters. "This is a defining moment in America's inability to act."

Should the deadlock over avoiding a U.S. debt default endure past Tuesday's deadline, it will trigger a financial crisis of vast proportions:

  • Plummeting equities: When Lehman Brothers failed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 504 points in one day, and kept falling for months afterward. A default by the United States on its debt could hit even harder. Lance Roberts, CEO of Streettalk advisers, told The Fiscal Times that stocks could fall 50%. That would torpedo retirement accounts and hurt investors large and small.
  • Missing payments: the government borrows about 40% of what it spends every day. If it can't borrow, then it will have to cut spending by 40% immediately – more than 10% of gross domestic product (GDP). That could mean missed payments to government contractors and recipients of government assistance. It may also mean that hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed without pay. In addition to the personal pain, billions of dollars in government spending will vanish from the economy.
  • Interest rates: Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's already has warned of a 50% likelihood that it will downgrade the credit rating of the United States in the coming months – as much for its high debt levels as the possibility of default. If lawmakers allow a U.S. debt default, S&P says it will cut the country's credit from AAA to D. That would mean higher interest rates (and higher costs) not only for U.S. debt, but for all credit. Because other types of lending – including home loans, credit card rates and student loans – are based on U.S. Treasurys, the cost of borrowing would skyrocket for consumers and businesses alike.
  • States and cities: Likewise, states and municipalities would face higher borrowing costs, since their rates, too, are tied to Treasurys. That will make all capital projects – roads, water systems, hospitals, schools – more expensive.
  • Credit crunch: Higher borrowing costs and financial turmoil could lead to another credit crunch like the one we saw following the Lehman Brothers collapse. And that would further strangle the U.S. economic recovery.
  • Bank crisis: A less obvious problem arising from a U.S. debt default would be how it affects large banks, which use Treasurys as collateral for their own borrowing. "What happens if treasuries as collateral aren't seen as the risk-free instruments they have been?" said Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani, who is worried about the impact of discounted Treasury holdings on the banks' leveraged positions. "Could an ugly round of global de-leveraging undermine investor confidence again and derail hoped-for economic growth?"
  • Lower dollar: Already in a years-long slump, the dollar will sink even further against the world's other currencies. S&P has estimated a U.S. debt default could cause the dollar to drop 10% or more. A weaker dollar will make imports more costly, but that's not the worst of it. A default or credit downgrade could cause the dollar to lose its status as the world's reserve currency. And that would be very bad for the U.S. economy.

Combine all of the above and you can see how a U.S. debt default could implode an already shaky economy. Not only would the recession return with a vengeance, but the economy could sink even lower than it did in 2008-2009.

"It's conceivable the worst-case scenario is that the entire financial system of the world just freezes up, and it will make what happened with Lehman Brothers look much less by comparison,"Bruce Bartlett,a former Reagan White House policy adviser, told The Fiscal Times.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2011/07/27/u-s-debt-default-would-be-worse-than-lehman-brothers-collapse/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2011 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014