Category: US Debt
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, April 05, 2020
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
In my decade forecast, I projected that in the next recession that the deficit would climb to over $2 trillion. Clearly, that demonstrates I am an optimist. Here’s a chart I shared back in January.
Between reduced tax revenues and increased spending, I now expect this year’s deficit will be at least $4 trillion.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
US National Debt is About to Surge Like Never Before! / Politics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits running over a $1 trillion; and projected to be at least that amount for the next dozen years. But then, the stock market and economy crashed due to the catalyst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pricked the massive bubble in junk bonds and equities that I have been warning about for years.
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Thursday, February 27, 2020
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt / Politics / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
Whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican installed in the White House this November, you can count on fiscal discipline going out the window. Neither the incumbent, President Donald J. Trump, nor the leading Democratic contender to replace him, Bernie Sanders, appears to give a hoot about shoveling more onto the enormous pile of debt that a few months ago shot past $23 trillion.
Why does this matter? Because debt impedes economic growth . And just like a business, if a country isn’t growing, it’s dying.
Keep that in mind as we explain how the real problem with the US economy, and what is driving gold prices ever higher, is not the coronavirus (though Covid-19 is certainly making things worse), but the 500-pound debt gorilla that is sitting on Uncle Sam’s chest, fattened by an all-you-can-eat buffet of dollar-denominated debt.
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Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Former Fed Official Says Government Can Borrow a LOT More / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Narayana Kocherlakota, the former President of the Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis wants you to know the Federal Government can never borrow too much money.
Our government already borrowed $23 trillion and deficits are expected to exceed $1 trillion per year. He knows many Americans feel anxious about the federal government going bankrupt, and he has a simple solution.
Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Elephant in the Room: Why Nobody Talks About Ballooning Federal Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The presidential race will mesmerize Americans over the next 11 months. The country hasn’t been this polarized since the Civil War.
Voters on the left desperately want a story which undermines support for President Trump. They are also searching for a candidate who can actually win.
Many Republicans are outraged about the Deep State and corporate media campaign obsession with unseating a duly elected president – and they worry an avowed socialist could win the Democratic primary and, just possibly, the general election.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials / Politics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails.It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard.
Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary incom source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement.
Life expectancy when Social Security began was around 56. The designers made 65 the full retirement age because it was well past normal life expectancy.
No one foresaw the various medical and technological advances that let more people reach that age and a great deal more, or the giant baby boom that would occur after World War II, or the sharp drop in birth rates in the 1960s, thanks to artificial birth control.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
The Later United States Empire / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
In 1917, the United States created the federal debt limit (or ceiling) to make it easier to finance World War One, essentially allowing Congress to borrow money to pay for the war effort by issuing bonds.
By 1939 with World War Two looming, Congress passed the first aggregate debt limit, but it meant little. For nearly 60 more years the debt ceiling caused nary a ripple, until 2011 when Congress delayed approval of the annual budget, nearly causing a government shutdown. Then a minority in the House of Representatives, Republicans balked at the $1.3 trillion deficit, the third largest in history, so Democrats suggested a $1.7 billion cut in defense spending, since the war in Iraq was winding down. The GOP wouldn’t agree to that, instead offering $61 billion in non-defense cuts including Obamacare. Finally the two sides agreed on $81 billion worth of cuts.
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Friday, August 23, 2019
Modern Monetary Theory Could Destroy America / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp.
The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago.
CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed,” but it is really just a meeting of wickedly smart people focused on economics and markets. (I am allowed to attend for comic relief.)
We discussed the world’s problems and the general mood was that many of those problems are beginning to catch up.
Among other topics, there was an open “debate” about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and US fiscal strategy.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
The Tip of the Debt-Bomb Iceberg / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
This week I wanted to bring your attention to a key development. And while overlooked by many, is part of the trigger that will set off the next financial crisis.All eyes were focused intently this week on US Treasury yields. And a lot of people might have missed what I believe will prove to be a very big event – after the dust from the next big implosion finally settles.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Trump Debt Deficits Then and Now : What a Difference 3 Years Make! / Politics / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets have been consolidating their recent gains.
A big move in metals markets could come after the Fed’s policy meeting next Wednesday. Of course, the magnitude and direction of the move will depend on what Chairman Jerome Powell and company do and say.
Central bankers are under immense political pressure to lower interest rates and resume purchases of government bonds. A recent downturn in manufacturing and home sales data may well give them cover to roll out new stimulus even as the stock market sits near a record high.
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Federal Debt Ceiling Reached as Federal Spending Rages / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The federal government will soon run up against its self-imposed borrowing cap once again.
Current estimates are for the government to max out its credit limit at a little over $22 trillion in early September. Congress goes on recess in August, so there is some pressure to address the cap right now.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been fulfilling what seems to be the most sacred responsibility of his position: borrowing money. It’s one that each of his predecessors has also undertaken, without fail and without regard to party affiliation, in recent decades.
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Fed Encourages Runaway US Debt as “Minsky Moment” Approaches / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Federal Reserve officials like to pretend they can use interest rates like a motorcycle throttle on the U.S. economy. They can either rev things up by dropping interest rates or slow things down by moving rates higher.
The public has been led to believe the central planners can do whatever is needed with rates to keep things purring along.
The truth is the central planners at the Fed are meddling with forces beyond their control. They are encouraging consumers, companies, and government to take on debt. Soon, the nation will choke on it.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
Smart people are worried about out deficit. They should be.Never mind the chaos around the world (like mass shootings, terrorist bombings, Armageddon marches, etc. ad infinitum), it was recently report that Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, is “doubly concerned” about the level of global debt. She was speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference last week, where she explained why excessive debt is going to become a serious problem for developed and developing countries alike.
In case you’re wondering – I had to look it up – the Milken Institute is a research driven, non-partisan think tank that develops policy initiatives aimed at increasing economic growth to improve the standard of living for people across the globe.
I assure you. The levels of global and U.S. debt are way beyond concerning. They’re also way beyond being repayable.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Real US National Debt Might Be $230 Trillion / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Trump has promised to free the US of debt. He pledged to pay all federal debt off in eight years.
But so far, it’s been just talk. Two years into Trump’s presidency, the US national debt has grown by $2 trillion.
The official, on-the-books federal debt is now at $22.1 trillion. $22.1 trillion is the face amount of all outstanding Treasury paper, including so-called “internal” debt.
It comes to about 105% of GDP, and that’s only the federal government.
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
US Overdosing on Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
On Friday, I talked about how the last 11 years have been no better than cumulative GDP during the Great Depression (1929-1940). I’ll talk more about that on Thursday. Today I want to point out the biggest difference between this Economic Winter Season and the one 80 years ago…That is: Central banks!
Thanks to their interference, our massive debt bubble didn’t deleverage as it should have!
Total debt peaked at $58.4 trillion, or four times GDP, in the first quarter of 2009 and just barely deleveraged in the financial and consumer sectors during the Great Recession.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
US Federal Borrowing Crosses the Rubicon / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
A year ago, Republicans in control of Congress suspended the cap on federal borrowing. The limit was automatically re-imposed on March 1st. Politicians now have a few months to hammer out legislation to raise the cap as the Treasury employs “extraordinary measures” to fend off default.
The federal deficit is mushrooming once again. The 2017 tax cuts have taken a bite out of receipts at the IRS and economic growth has not met expectations.
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Friday, March 01, 2019
US Consumer Debt Is Actually in Better Shape Than Ever / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jared_Dillian
I saw a headline last week:
“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”
Sounds ominous. It’s even worse when you dig into it.
Seven million car loans were more than 90 days past due in the fourth quarter of last year. That’s more than during the Great Recession, when unemployment was twice as high.
A lot of the perma-bears seized on this, saying how the economy sucks because everyone is defaulting on their car loans.
Friday, February 22, 2019
US Auto Loans - Americans Missing Car Payments Is a Symptom of a Much Bigger Problem / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
By Robert Ross Transportation is a big issue in most of the US.
It’s so big that for the majority of Americans having a car is a matter of survival. Most people can’t even go to work without a car.
That makes auto payments a high priority. And yet, the number of people who can’t make them is rising fast.
Last week, the Fed warned that auto delinquencies—or missed payments on auto loans—are on a steep rise.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”
“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman
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Friday, January 18, 2019
Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
Never in our lifetimes has American politics been so marked by division and dysfunction.
The longest partial government shutdown in history occurred after the Democrat-controlled Congress wouldn’t compromise with President Trump on a border wall. The impasse is but one symptom of a deeper malady – one that threatens to wreak wider social and financial instability in the years ahead.
Put plainly, the pillars of the American system as we have known it are eroding.
No longer are we unified in support of the Constitution and a (more or less) free market economy. A growing faction within one party favors socialism and outright rejects foundational American principles such as free speech, gun rights, and limited government.