Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters - 10th Jan 21
An Urgent Message to All Conservatives, Right-Wingers and Patriots - 10th Jan 21
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top - 10th Jan 21 -
Ultimate Guide On The 6 Basic Types Of Index Funds - 10th Jan 21
Getting Vaccinated at TESCO - Covid-19 Vaccinations at UK Supermarket Pharmacies and Chemists - 10th Jan 21
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" - 9th Jan 21
How to Plan Your Child With Better Education - 9th Jan 21
How To Find The Best Casino - 9th Jan 21
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms - 8th Jan 21
Have Big Dreams? Here's How to Pay for Them - 8th Jan 21
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? - 8th Jan 21
Stocks trading strategies for beginners - 8th Jan 21
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 - 8th Jan 21
Clap for NHS Heroes 2021 as Incompetent Government Loses Control of Virus Again! - 8th Jan 21
Ultimate Gaming and Home Working PC System Build 2021 - 5950X, RTX 3080, Asus MB - Scan Computers UK - 7th Jan 21
Inflation the bug-bear looking forward through 2021 - 7th Jan 21
ESG ETF Investing Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs - 7th Jan 21
5 Financial Market Surprises in 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Time to ‘Reset’ Your Investment Portfolio in 2021? - 7th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Collapses almost 20% at the start 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Fed Taper Nervous Breakdown - 6th Jan 21
What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021? - 6th Jan 21
Stock market frenzy- Ride the bandwagon but be sure to take along some gold coins - 6th Jan 21
Overclockers UK Custom Build Gaming System Review Heat Test and Final Conclusion - 6th Jan 21
Precious Metals Resuming Bull Market, Gold, Silver, GDX Trend Forecasts 2021 - 5th Jan 21
Trump’s Iran-COVID-Gate Anniversary  - 5th Jan 21
2021 May Be A Good Year For The Cannabis / Marijuana Sector - 5th Jan 21
Stock Market Approaching an Important Target - 5th Jan 21
Consumer Prices Are Not Reflecting Higher Inflation; Neither Is The CRB - 5th Jan 21
NEW UK Coronavirus PANIC FULL Lockdown Imminent, All Schools to Close! GCSE Exams Cancelled! - 4th Jan 21
The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole - 4th Jan 21
A Year Like No Other for Precious Metals… and Everything Else - 4th Jan 21
The Stocks Bull Market is Only Half Completed - 4th Jan 21
An In- Depth Look At Gold Price Trend - 4th Jan 21
Building America Back After a Dark Covid Winter - 4th Jan 21
America's Dark Covid Winter Ahead - 4th Jan 21
Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? 3 Year Driving Review - 3rd Jan 21
Stock Market Major Peak in Early April 2021 - 3rd Jan 21
Travel and Holidays 2021 - Flight Knight Cabin Bag Review - 3rd Jan 21
�� Happy New Year 2021 Fireworks and Drone Light Show from London and Sheffied - BBC�� - 2nd Jan 2
The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus - 1st Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Fannie Freddie Mortgage Loan Delinquencies Soar

Housing-Market / Credit Crisis 2009 Apr 23, 2009 - 11:52 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Tuesday, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported Mortgage Delinquencies Rose 50% in a Month.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage delinquencies among the most creditworthy homeowners rose 50 percent in a month as borrowers said drops in income or too much debt caused them to fall behind, according to data from federal regulators.


The number of so-called prime borrowers at least 60 days behind on mortgages owned or guaranteed by the companies rose to 743,686 in January, from 497,131 in December, and is almost double the total for October, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report to Congress today.

Of all borrowers who ended up in default, 34 percent told Fannie and Freddie they were earning less money, about 20 percent cited excessive debt as a reason for missing mortgage payments, and 8.1 percent blamed unemployment, FHFA said.

Those are pretty nasty numbers.

Mark Hanson (aka Mr. Mortgage) at The Field Check Group said "We saw this coming well in advance by watching notices of default (NODs)."

GSE Notices Of Default Rate of Change




Fannie and Freddie data is woefully late. The GSEs are just now reporting January delinquencies.

In the meantime, Mark is tracking actual notice of default data (90-120 days late) for March. If defaults are soaring, it stands to reason that delinquencies will be soaring as well. In this way, someone watching Notices of Default (NODs) is able to know in advance whether or not an upcoming GSE report is going to be bad.

Mark is also tracking California specifically. Please consider the following chart.

Notices Of Default Rate of Change Total Universe (Not just GSEs)



A key point for the above charts is that Fannie and Freddie loans are now blowing up at a faster rate than the entire universe of loans!

Mark's data is for the west coast, primarily California. However, his assumption is that if his west coast data is bad, the overall numbers for the GSEs will be bad as well.

SB1137 Effect

Note the effect of SB1137, a ridiculous foreclosure prevention act that gave give delinquent payers 30 days grace period before the actual foreclosure process begins. All that bill did was add red tape and delay the inevitable.

CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up

A new CA law dubbed the CA Foreclosure Prevention Act comes into effect in July that will essentially do the same thing. It's primary purpose is to delay the time between the Notice-of-Default (foreclosure stage 1) to the Notice-of-Trustee Sale (stage 2) by 90-days further delaying the foreclosure process and ultimate end of the foreclosure and housing crisis.

Hanson says, "It is likely we are already seeing unintended consequences of the new law. A certain percentage of the last few month's surge of new loan notice-of-defaults was likely servicers gaming the calendar in order to get borrowers into the foreclosure process prior to the July enactment of the new law."

FHFA Expands Reporting On Homeowner Assistance


Inquiring minds are digging into news that FHFA Expands Reporting On Homeowner Assistance

Since late November, the Enterprises had suspended foreclosure sales and evictions on owner-occupied properties. The suspensions, which ended on March 31, 2009, allowed servicers additional time to work with borrowers in foreclosure who were eligible for the Streamlined Modification Program (SMP). The impact of the suspensions caused completed foreclosure sales and third-party sales to decline 77 percent from the prior three-month average of 16,342 to 3,711 in December, and 79 percent to 3,391 in January. At the same time, loans that were 60+ and 90+ days delinquent increased. All loans 60+ days delinquent increased from 834,831 as of November 30 to 1,229,051 as of January 31, representing an increase of 47 percent over the period. However, prime loans 60+ days delinquent increased by 69.6 percent while nonprime loans increased by 23 percent.

Total Delinquencies

The reported 743,686 in the first widely read article was only Prime loans. The total 60-day and worse delinquent/defaulted loans stood at 1.229 million as of Jan 31st from 834k in November, up 47%. This represents 4.1% of their entire portfolio. This was led by prime that was up 70% while Subprime was up 23%.

Successful loss mitigation is increasing BUT in January only 9k loans were successfully modified. That would have to increase 10 fold to make a dent in the upcoming foreclosure wave.

The multi-month foreclosure suspension that ended on March 31st came at the same time as the new GSE loss mitigation initiative -- but with a 400k increase in distressed loans over the past 2 months and a recent record of 9k mods per month, the broken dam has a lot of water coming over it.

It's no wonder why the Fed is buying Agency MBS. Foreigners are likely a tad worried about now about this trash they were peddled by the trillions carries no explicit guaranty.

Fannie Mae Certificate




MBS Purchase Program

Please consider the MBS Purchase Program.

On Wednesday, March 18, the FOMC announced the expansion of the Federal Reserve's program to purchase agency MBS to a total of $1.25 trillion by the end of the year.

...

Does the agency MBS program expose the Federal Reserve to increased risk of losses?

Assets purchased under this program are fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, so the Federal Reserve's exposure to the credit risk of the underlying mortgages is minimal. The market valuation of agency MBS can fluctuate over time based on the interest rate environment; however, the Federal Reserve's exposure to interest rate risk is mitigated by the conservative, buy and hold investment strategy of the agency MBS purchase program.

When did the purchases begin?
Purchases began in early January, 2009 and will continue until the end of 2009.

Defaults and delinquencies are soaring an the Fed has the gall to say there is no risk because the principle is guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Pardon me for asking, but I have two questions:

1. Exactly who is guaranteeing Fannie and Freddie?

2. How the hell does the Fed think it can get away with such a blatant lie about the risks?

Those who think that lie would be hard to top need to think again. Please consider the GSE MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES PURCHASE PROGRAM FACT SHEET

Risk. Treasury is committed to protecting taxpayers and will ensure that measures are in place to reduce the potential for investment loss.

Under most likely scenarios, taxpayers will benefit from this program - both indirectly through the increased availability and lower cost of mortgage financing, and directly through potential returns on Treasury’s portfolio of MBS.

Any idea that taxpayers will benefit from gains on the MBS portfolio is complete nonsense and the Fed and Treasury both know it.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2009 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules