AMD Blow off Top Earnings After Tuesdays Close
Companies / AMD Nov 04, 2025 - 12:49 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
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It's AMD Blow off Top Earnings on Tuesday after the close.
AMD $256 - the Advance Money Deliverer has more than 3xd of it's 2025 low. The "Hard Cash % of Exposure Target" mechanism has managed to keep me invested whilst cashing out TWICE what I put in! With still enough chips left on the AI poker table to sell into a possible 4x FOMO run to $300+ Whilst folk were focused on Nvidia the real potential action was always with AMD given it's 1/20th market cap of Nvidia, which even after the latest blast off is still less than 1/10th that of Nvidia, as I used to say it's a lot easier for AMD to 2x then Nvidia.
AMD will likely beat earnings given a strong direction of travel of +18%, but the PE % of range at 168% and FOMO indicator at 72% are a chernobyl red hot pressure cooker about to blow off it's top, $256 is over a $100 bucks above the TOP of it's buying range of $148 to $112, which AMD WILL revisit, so WHEN reality sets in and AMD halves to under $130, a lot of folk buying and holding onto FOMO are going to suffer from AMD radiation sickness where even the mention of AMD will induce vomiting. But for now folk are buying the hype that OpenAI will given AMD $100 billion in revenue that OpenAI does not have to give! Only if AMD gives them $100 billion first so that they can both book $100 billion in revenue, the same holds true with EVERY OPENAI ponzi partner.
What will I do as AMD Pumps higher, keep shaking my head and trim every 10 bucks or so the stock price FOMO's all to a break above $300, much as I continue to hold onto chunks of equally insanely valued stocks such as LRCX, KLAC and AVGO, though Micron bull threw me off it's back at $200, now trading at 201% of it's PE range, FOMO 132%.
Folk worry about missing out on the next 10% to 20%, instead folk should be worried about how much they will see their portfolio crater when the music stops, though they won't recognise it just keep blinding buying the dip in over valued stocks, say AMD at $210 thinking it's cheap, whilst I'll be waiting for sub $148 to start re-accumulating.
And then we wait for the God of AI to report, Nvidia where the FOMO is even stronger than AMD at 79%! How much of Nvidia's revenue is fake? 50%?
The stock market is going to be like all those who failed to sell their crypto now waiting for ALT SEASON all whilst crypto's bleed. Overt he past couple of years Solana has had 4 alt seasons so another would be it's fifth, similar for other alt's i.e. DOGE has had 5. Eth 4 and maybe a weak 5th. So folk have had PLENTY of opps to cash in profits. BTC has done as good as one could have expected having risen from $16k to $126k, it looks like I won't get my grand finale of $134k. How many sheep are going to get slaughtered following butcher Tom Lee waiting on $250k, Eth $15k?
Stocks will roll over one by one, folk will be happy to buy the dip until they see the dip keeps dipping and then pray for a break even rally to exit on, whilst most will point to rate cuts and the end of QT for reasons why new highs are still coming and thus double down on their at the end of the bull market bets.
Your 67% in cash analyst eyeing incoming Labour tax hikes.... starting to think the unthinkable, develop a plan to bugger off.
Nadeem Walayat.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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