Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
USDT Ponzi Scheme FINAL WARNING To EXIT Before Tether Collapses Crypto Exchange Markets - 22nd Jun 21
Stock Market Correction Starting - 22nd Jun 21
This Green SuperFuel Could Change Everything For the $14 Trillion Shipping Industry - 22nd Jun 21
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bear Market NOT Over, Stocks WILL Crash this Fall!

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Aug 05, 2009 - 01:47 AM GMT

By: Graham_Summers


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday we detailed the different between this current economic contraction, and your usual run of the mill plain vanilla recessions. We also went over the MASSIVE consumer credit contraction that needs to occur before American households have finished de-leveraging.

Today, we’re detailing why stocks will Crash this coming fall. As you know the media is rife with folks calling the end of the recession and the beginning of a new bull market. It’s clear to me that this is a load of nonsense. Today I’ll show you why.

Because a lot of the alleged “analysis” that is backing up the bulls’ claims of a new bull market comes from technical analysis and charts, I’m presenting the below chart from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Shef. It charts today’s bear market over that of 1929-1932.

As you can see, today’s bear market is mirroring that of the ‘30s almost to perfection. Indeed, the correlation between the two charts is an incredible 0.8, meaning it’s 4/5ths perfect. In finance, you’re lucky if you get a correlation above 0.6. (gold and the dollar are only 0.28 inversely correlated). A 0.8 correlation is virtually unheard of. But that’s exactly how closely today’s market is mirroring that of the ‘30s.

I can’t take full credit for this insight. Ron Coby, an investment manager at Coby Lamson in Oregon first started pointing out the similarities between this market and that of 1929 back in February ’09. No one wanted to listen to him then.

They’re listening now.

Coby notes that from October 29, 1929 until November 13, 1929, the stock market collapsed 48% (the 2008 Crash was 52%). Then from November 1929 to April 1930 the market staged a 155-day rally of 50%. Today’s rally (starting in March ’09) has lasted 150 days and the market is up an average of 50% (average of Nasdaq, DJIA, and S&P 500).

Unfortunately for the bulls today, the 1929 market then rolled over and collapsed another 70%. “Bottom callers” INCLUDING legends like Jesse Livermore, Benjamin Graham and others bought ALL THE WAY DOWN, losing entire fortunes.

Ok, so the charts for today and 1929 are identical, what about the earnings? After all, profits are ultimately what drive the stock market: you buy based on expected future earnings of the companies.

Earnings today are even lower than they were in the ‘30s during the Great Depression. They’ve fallen 98% from their peak in 2007. Adjusted for inflation, stocks have NEVER been this unprofitable in the last 80 years.

The US was already in a recession in 2008. And 2Q09 profits are actually down 31% even from THAT. Indeed, based on ACTUAL posted earnings, the S&P 500 is trading at a P/E of 700 today. Even if you go by operating earnings the multiple is still 24: hardly cheap.

Looking over this, I can’t see where any claims of a “bull market” are coming from. The people who are saying today is a new bull market probably went long Tech Stocks in 2001, Housing in 2006, and Financials in 2008.

In light of the rampant bullishness, the parabolic rally in the S&P 500, the horrific earnings, and the similarity between today’s rally and that of 1929, I believe the likelihood of another Crash (like 2008) is quite high. In fact, I would not be surprised to see stocks collapse within the next eight weeks.

I’ve put together a FREE Special Report detailing THREE investments that will explode when stocks start to collapse. I call it Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. These investments will not only protect your portfolio from the coming carnage, they’ll also show you enormous profits: they returned 12%, 42%, and 153% last time stocks collapsed in 2008.

Swing by to pick up your FREE copy!!

Good Investing!

Graham Summers

Graham Summers: Graham is Senior Market Strategist at OmniSans Research. He is co-editor of Gain, Pains, and Capital, OmniSans Research’s FREE daily e-letter covering the equity, commodity, currency, and real estate markets. 

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

    © 2009 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    Graham Summers Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


05 Aug 09, 14:54
Stocks crash

I am making a note and will remind you in October, good luck!

Dave Nolan
05 Aug 09, 19:44
This chart is not up-to-date!

The chart that's shown at the beginning of this article only extends about 100 days from the March 9 bottom. Yet, as the article notes, we are now about 150 days out, and the US markets are all up even more than they were at day 100, while the 1929-1930 chart collapsed during the most recent 50 days. So while the parallels were strong for a while, the market has behaved very differently in the last couple of months.

05 Aug 09, 22:45
Reply to "Stocks Crash"


Take a look at the DJIA from Fall 1929 thru 1932.

Crash, sucker's rally, crash, sucker's rally, crash...

Same old, same old. The only thing that will be different this time is the timing.

06 Aug 09, 17:46
Agree with ToyotaWhizGuy


I agree with you 100%. I think there is a chance that we may see this rally extend out until early next year. The rally could end as early as tomorrow though... really hard to know exactly when.

My thoughts are early next year because most economist (even the bearish Roubini) felt that we would likely be out of this by end of 2009. When that deadline comes and goes and reports aren't getting better but rather worse, then that's when it really hits the fan and we begin the descent to the real bottom of this cycle.

08 Mar 10, 05:17
Seems the prediction went wrong?

seems the economy is still sticking up. its more than 300days from the date of prediction

I'm still bearish.. but seems the above co-relation is changing..

Raj kumar
07 Nov 10, 06:44
Crash is coming

I agree with you and I think that correction may begin from Monday (08-11-2010) onwards !

07 Nov 10, 10:24

The will keep calling for the crash as the mkt goes to new highs.

07 Nov 10, 15:26
Is a Crash is Imminent?

I was reading this article always interested to hear any contrarian point of view particularly given the recent bullish run and then I got to the last few lines in the article:

"I’ve put together a FREE Special Report detailing THREE investments that will explode when stocks start to collapse"

and thought............would it not be more profitable to be out shorting the market than selling "exploding" stock recommendations?

Apparently not......the bull is still on

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in