Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
WESTERN DIGITAL WDC Stock Trend Analysis - CHIA! - Risk 1 - 23rd Jun 21
AMC Is the Best-Performing Stock in America: Don’t Buy It - 23rd Jun 21
Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff - 23rd Jun 21
Could Bitcoin Price CRASH Target A Bottom Below $7500? - 23rd Jun 21
Bitcoin and cryptos: Your 'long-term investment'? - 23rd Jun 21
Unlocking The Next Stage Of The Hydrogen Boom - 23rd Jun 21
USDT Ponzi Scheme FINAL WARNING To EXIT Before Tether Collapses Crypto Exchange Markets - 22nd Jun 21
Stock Market Correction Starting - 22nd Jun 21
This Green SuperFuel Could Change Everything For the $14 Trillion Shipping Industry - 22nd Jun 21
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold at Both Ends of the Economic K Wave Cycle

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Nov 06, 2009 - 10:04 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNow that the 10-year cycle has peaked, fear will become the dominant emotion in the financial marketplace in the years ahead. Risk aversion is on the rise since the credit crisis and investors must look to those assets which tend to benefit from fear. Gold is of course the chief beneficiary of fear and has the added feature of being a hedge against a hyper-deflationary environment. Hyper deflation will be the order of the day in 2012-2014 when the final leg of the 60-year cycle descends.

Many observers share the opinion that the latest move to new highs in the gold price is a premonition of a coming inflation. The more likely explanation is that gold’s rally is a sign of fear over continued deflation in the financial sector, especially now that the 10-year cycle has peaked. Remember our discussion from September when we looked back and saw how the gold price spiked in dramatic fashion in the fall of 1999 at the previous 10-year peak? This occurred simultaneously with a decline in the broad equities market as measured by the S&P.

The similarities between today’s market behavior and that of 1999 are self evident. The difference is that this time gold is in a secular bull market and heading into the final years of long wave hyper-deflation (economic winter). As we’ve talked about previously, gold tends to benefit strongly on both ends of the economic K Wave: both from hyper-inflation and from hyper-deflation. This is one of the things that makes gold so unique among all other financial assets categories.

What happened on Tuesday was another example of how investors and money managers flock to the yellow metal when fears and economic concerns are high in the air. And yet there are no signs of the ebullience that always accompanies a major top. The frothiness over the gold price rise hasn’t yet become evident, which suggests the interim uptrend still has strength in spite of running into channel resistance (see discussion below).

Previously we saw that the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) pulled back only to only the 30-day moving average during last week’s correction and was above it as of last Friday’s close. This relative strength suggested that gold wasn’t ready yet to “give up the ghost” and was expected to rally to a new high before the next phase of the correction gets underway. GLD did just that on Tuesday in breaking out to a new high for the year.

GLD is pushing against the upper boundary of its short-term trading channel and a breakout above the upper channel boundary would constitute an upside “channel buster,” which is often a precursor to a sharp pullback. The channel buster often occurs at the end of an up-move but in gold’s case the investor psychology doesn’t match the profile of a major top, as we discussed earlier. There isn’t much enthusiasm over this rally and this suggests the top isn’t in yet, ergo a move to around the 110 level isn’t out of the question before this rally has peaked.

Concerning silver, in total contrast to last fall when the credit crash was raging, producers are more optimistic about the future outlook for the white metal. Speaking to the heads of several junior and mid-tier mines, I get the sense that producer sentiment has done a complete about-face from the year-ago period.

Robert Boaz, Director and CEO of Aura Silver Resources, is generally optimistic on the silver price outlook. He told me, “We’re looking over the coming months at a range of $15 to $20 an ounce. As you know, both gold and silver prices have seen considerable volatility,. I think that if you look at the historic ratios of gold to silver, silver has to rise relative to gold in order to maintain that historic trend. There are a number of studies recently published that show that silver demand is increasing in industrial processes. That’s one reason why we entered the silver exploration business as we felt that silver was drastically underpriced relative to gold when it was $7 to $8 an ounce. Now it has recovered to higher levels and we think it can go a little higher and maybe punch through $20. That’s not a forecast, it’s a guess, but we are confident that silver will maintain its current price level or higher.”

Lenic Rodriguez, President and CEO of Aurcana Corportaion, a silver miner, agrees with Boaz. “I’m generally optimistic on the continuing recovery,” he said. “Based on the ratios of silver to gold we anticipated we’ll be seeing a $20/ounce silver price at some point. People in the business say as high as $30. So yes I’m optimistic and I think we’re in a long-term upward movement in the metals.”

By Clif Droke

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in