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Bears Still a Threat in EUA Carbon Emissions Trading

Commodities / Climate Change Feb 25, 2010 - 06:14 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

A marked consolidation has been unfolding in the EUA (ICE ECX) contract, displaying a slow downward bias. So far bears have been unable to develop this more in their favour, but, now, they have another chance – will they take it?


The Commodity Specialist view


WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:

The 38.2% recovery level remains first key resistance on this long term chart.

The current multi-month consolidation (with slight bear bias) continues to unfold.

Any shorter term weakness should prove temporary though.

DAILY CHART – DEC-10:

Note how nicely support has developed at the 50% retracement.

It is again under pressure, following lacklustre rally attempts, with current risk of a better break.

This would turn initial focus towards the channel base projection at 11.10 currently. However, also note lower 76.4% level at 10.30 which lies close to a Fibo projection at 10.38 – the temptation would be to target this area.

Overhead, the hurdles include s/term 76.4% bounce level at 14.48, falling resistance line just above and then 15.17 08-Dec high. A breach of the latter would violate the pattern of falling highs and lows, and turn the tables in favour of the bulls.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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