Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 27th Jan 2007

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 27, 2007 - 12:22 PM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

The good news is:
Since 1887 (120 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 70% of the time in the coming week (the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February) during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).

Short Term
Most of the short term indicators are at or near neutral and showing a very modest positive bias. I cannot draw conclusions from them.


Intermediate term
The intermediate term indicators are not much better.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in red Summation Indices (SI) for advances - declines (AD) in blue, new highs - new lows (HL) in blue and upside - downside volume (UD) in grey.

SI's are running total of oscillators so when the oscillator is above 0 the SI moves upward and when it is below 0 the SI moves downward.

The HL SI had a lower low earlier in the month so you could call its bias modestly positive, the UD SI has been decidedly negative and the AD SI has been slightly negative. There is nothing decisive here.

seasonal chart

Seasonality
Next week includes the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.

In the tables below, OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2003 and S&P 500 (SPX) data from 1931 - 2003 during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined beginning with 1963 for the OTC and 1928 for the SPX.

Next week has been a strong week. The OTC has been up 73% of the time since 1963 and the SPX up 79% of the time. The 3rd year is stronger than the averages for all years which are also very positive. Over all years the OTC has been up 64% of the time and the SPX 75% of the time.

Last 3 days of January and first 2 days of February.
The number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 3
Day3 Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals
1963-3 -0.03% 3 -0.48% 4 0.45% 5 -0.42% 1 0.00% 0 -0.48%
1967-3 0.02% 5 0.49% 1 0.37% 2 0.26% 3 0.19% 4 1.34%
1971-3 -0.29% 3 -0.47% 4 0.91% 5 -0.06% 1 0.93% 2 1.02%
1975-3 1.71% 3 -0.13% 4 1.15% 5 1.36% 1 -0.85% 2 3.24%
1979-3 -0.21% 1 -0.21% 2 -0.55% 3 -0.05% 4 0.05% 5 -0.96%
1983-3 1.66% 4 0.61% 5 0.58% 1 -0.08% 2 0.05% 3 2.81%
Avg 0.58% 0.06% 0.49% 0.29% 0.07% 1.49%
1987-3 0.33% 3 -0.27% 4 1.04% 5 0.54% 1 0.55% 2 2.19%
1991-3 0.96% 2 1.98% 3 1.39% 4 0.84% 5 1.70% 1 6.87%
1995-3 0.18% 5 -0.93% 1 0.45% 2 0.41% 3 0.70% 4 0.81%
1999-3 -1.10% 3 2.93% 4 1.15% 5 0.17% 1 -1.86% 2 1.30%
2003-3 1.18% 3 -2.63% 4 -0.11% 5 0.22% 1 -1.33% 2 -2.67%
Avg 0.31% 0.21% 0.79% 0.44% -0.05% 1.70%
OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2003
Averages 0.40% 0.08% 0.62% 0.29% 0.01% 1.41%
% Winners 64% 36% 82% 64% 64% 73%
MDD 2/4/2003 3.82% -- 2/2/1999 1.86% -- 2/1/1979 1.01%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2006
Averages 0.06% 0.09% 0.31% 0.16% -0.07% 0.53%
% Winners 58% 59% 67% 64% 70% 64%
MDD 2/2/2001 6.27% -- 2/3/1970 5.82% -- 2/4/2002 4.55%
SPX Presidential Year 3
Day3 Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals
1931-3 0.94% 4 0.12% 5 -0.62% 6 0.44% 1 0.50% 2 1.37%
1935-3 -0.99% 2 0.56% 3 0.78% 4 -0.55% 5 0.44% 6 0.23%
1939-3 -0.42% 6 2.96% 1 1.15% 2 -1.46% 3 2.15% 4 4.38%
1943-3 0.10% 4 0.87% 5 0.29% 6 0.48% 1 0.00% 2 1.73%
1947-3 1.16% 3 -0.32% 4 0.38% 5 0.51% 6 0.38% 1 2.12%
1951-3 0.65% 1 0.32% 2 -0.37% 3 0.51% 4 0.87% 5 1.99%
1955-3 0.11% 4 0.56% 5 1.22% 1 0.25% 2 -0.30% 3 1.83%
1959-3 -1.11% 3 0.07% 4 0.40% 5 -0.38% 1 0.13% 2 -0.89%
1963-3 -0.02% 2 -0.57% 3 0.53% 4 0.17% 5 -0.21% 1 -0.10%
Avg 0.16% 0.01% 0.43% 0.21% 0.17% 0.99%
1967-3 0.41% 5 0.58% 1 -0.06% 2 -0.21% 3 0.35% 4 1.07%
1971-3 -0.73% 3 0.34% 4 0.70% 5 0.56% 1 0.01% 2 0.88%
1975-3 1.62% 3 -1.36% 4 1.01% 5 1.09% 1 -0.27% 2 2.09%
1979-3 -0.30% 1 -0.49% 2 -1.11% 3 0.03% 4 -0.46% 5 -2.34%
1983-3 1.93% 4 0.17% 5 0.55% 1 -1.61% 2 0.19% 3 1.22%
Avg 0.58% -0.15% 0.22% -0.03% -0.04% 0.59%
1987-3 0.60% 3 -0.42% 4 -0.06% 5 0.86% 1 -0.17% 2 0.82%
1991-3 -0.06% 2 1.51% 3 0.89% 4 -0.26% 5 1.54% 1 3.63%
1995-3 0.44% 5 -0.40% 1 0.41% 2 0.00% 3 0.51% 4 0.95%
1999-3 -0.73% 3 1.79% 4 1.12% 5 -0.52% 1 -0.86% 2 0.80%
2003-3 0.68% 3 -2.28% 4 1.31% 5 0.54% 1 -1.41% 2 -1.16%
Avg 0.19% 0.04% 0.73% 0.13% -0.08% 1.01%
SPX summary for Presidential Year 3
Averages 0.22% 0.21% 0.45% 0.02% 0.18% 1.09%
% Winners 58% 63% 74% 58% 58% 79%
MDD 2/2/1979 2.32% -- 1/30/2003 2.28% -- 2/1/1983 1.61%
SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2006
Averages -0.03% 0.25% 0.15% -0.18% 0.01% 0.19%
% Winners 55% 75% 70% 60% 55% 75%
MDD 2/2/1933 6.96% -- 2/3/1941 4.51% -- 2/2/1981 3.21%

 

Conclusion
Most of the technical indicators are direction free. Seasonally the period has been quite strong, but seasonal influences have not had much effect on the market recently. For example, last week the S&P was down for only the 2nd time since 1953 while the mid and small cap indices were up. Right now, there is little to go on but seasonality which has been positive.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday February 2 than they were on Friday January 26.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://alphaim.net/signup.html . If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

Last week the major indices were split, the blue chip indices were down slightly while the small cap indices were up so I am calling last weeks positive forecast a tie.

By Mike Burke

Mike Burk is an employee and principle of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in