Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Life Sciences Biotech Smaller Cap High Risk Stocks Investing Binge - 24th Jun 21
Central Banks to Keep Buying Gold - 24th Jun 21
Will Gold Survive Hawkish Fed? - 24th Jun 21
The Clean Energy Compound That Could Change The World - 24th Jun 21
Everybody's Getting Rich (and Having Fun) Except Me - 24th Jun 21
WESTERN DIGITAL WDC Stock Trend Analysis - CHIA! - Risk 1 - 23rd Jun 21
AMC Is the Best-Performing Stock in America: Don’t Buy It - 23rd Jun 21
Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff - 23rd Jun 21
Could Bitcoin Price CRASH Target A Bottom Below $7500? - 23rd Jun 21
Bitcoin and cryptos: Your 'long-term investment'? - 23rd Jun 21
Unlocking The Next Stage Of The Hydrogen Boom - 23rd Jun 21
USDT Ponzi Scheme FINAL WARNING To EXIT Before Tether Collapses Crypto Exchange Markets - 22nd Jun 21
Stock Market Correction Starting - 22nd Jun 21
This Green SuperFuel Could Change Everything For the $14 Trillion Shipping Industry - 22nd Jun 21
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! - 16th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Global Stocks Bear Market Is Upon Us

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Aug 22, 2011 - 12:28 PM GMT

By: Richard_Shaw

Stock-Markets

Or At Least Knocking On The Door... QVM Clients:

The attached letter provides charts showing evidence that we are in, or nearly in, a global bear market for stocks.

Important news events that will impact the coming week are:


1. The rebel victory in Libya tonight. The first impact might be a somewhat lower oil price, as concerns about future oil supply decrease. However, the pace of getting production back on line is uncertain, and while the battle with Gaddafi is over, new battles between factions among the rebels may delay stabilization of the country. As one commentator said, the situation now is like the dog who finally catches the car he was chasing -- what does he do then?

2. Utterances from Merkel of Germany and Sarkozy of France concerning the European financial stability fund, and more importantly the German reluctance to accept creation of Eurobonds. Eurobonds would permit financially weak countries to issue debt backed by Europe (read that as in great part Germany). Markets will be on edge about that. The story there is far from over, and not solved.

3. On Friday, Bernanke is making an important speech in Jackson Hole (titled "Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy"), on which the market will hang on every word. The Fed has made the unprecedented decision already that the economy needs low interest rates until 2013. Will he announce some further action?

4. Some other data of importance next week, in addition to continuing second quarter earnings reports: Tuesday (July new home sales), Wednesday (July durable goods orders and petroleum stockpiles), Thursday (weekly initial and continuing jobless claims), Friday (Commerce Dept. second quarter revised GDP estimate; and the Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August)

5. Lastly, the President will be back from vacation soon with some form of plan to be announced for revitalizing the economy. That will have the potential to move markets either way, but the more we talk about the need for government action, the more nervous markets may become.

Looking out a little further, the super-panel in the US will possibly have public leaks of their debate prior to their recommendation in late November. Then the full Congress gets the ball back in their lap, where they must once again make a decision in December. The chance that the battle between the members of the super-panel is likely to be any less bitter and stalemated than the full Congress is unclear at a minimum. The chance that the Congress will be settled enough to approve the super-panel without a nasty fight is low. We should expect some market gyration leading into Thanksgiving and approaching the New Year relating to that mess.

All the while, economists, analysts and central bankers are reducing global economic growth projections in developed and emerging markets alike. Can corporate earnings growth projections be far behind? No. If corporate earnings growth projections decline, can we expect valuation multiples to resist some compression? No.

These factors will quite possibly act as forces tending to keep the short-term momentum on the downside. Defense is the best policy at this time. Better risk entry points probably are farther in the future -- either at lower prices, or at prices that have rebounded sufficiently to allow belief that the market up trend has resumed.

By Richard Shaw 
http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Copyright 2006-2011 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Richard Shaw Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in