Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Stock Investors Buy GDX and GDXJ

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Sep 09, 2011 - 02:05 AM GMT

By: George_Maniere

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday morning I had a conversation with a brilliant reader of mine. We spoke about precious metals, the blatant manipulation of the metals (which I am happy to report the Central banks have been unable to sustain) and to point out two stocks that I had not given their fair due.


In fairness, I first learned about the GDX from a fine young analyst but truthfully I could not get my hands around it. If I don’t believe in the fundamentals of the company you can show me charts all day long, I will not buy into the trade until I am convinced that this can be a profitable trade. There have been times that cost me dearly but I simply have my style or system and I don’t stray from it. Part of my style is that when I am wrong I promptly admit it.

Well Mea Culpa! I was wrong. The GDX has seemingly proved me to be wrong. I had espoused my view that this was not anything more than human reaction to gold and silver. I believed that investors would rather own gold and silver above the ground rather than real wealth under the ground.

I have always tried not to be stubborn and not be arrogant. Sadly this stock was recommended to me at $52.00 and I watched it flounder for months and was convinced that I was right in my original premise. What I didn’t see coming was that at some point investors would realize that the cost to bring gold and silver out of the ground were at unbelievably cheap valuations. Oil is cheap and labor is cheap and this only adds to a company’s profit margins. Sooner or later I too would recognize that these stocks were selling at amazingly discounted prices. So rather than bemoan the fact that I came to the party late I choose to embrace the fact that I came at all.

For the last few days I have been studying the GDX (which broke into all time highs yesterday) and the junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ). On any pull backs I'm going to be a buyer and here's why. I know who's who in the GDX. They are the best of the breed mining companies like Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Kinross (KGC), Anglo Ashanti (AU) just to name a few. While I am conversant in these companies, I have no inside knowledge of when one of these companies will make an acquisition so I think while I do own Barrick and Goldcorp. I feel it would be the most prudent to scale out of them on strength and buy the GDX.

elow is a chart that my reader sent me that overlays the price of gold, the gold miners and The GDX. A study of this chart courtesy of AgoraFinancial.com shows that in the last two weeks the GDX is up 6%, gold is up 4% and the S&P is down 6%.

That leaves me wanting the GDXJ. When one of the majors makes an acquisition it will be from the pool of the GDXJ. There are too many companies in the GDXJ and as Bernard Baruch taught us you only have to be right 2 out of 10 times with small companies like the GDXJ to be successful. There is no doubt that there will be majors trying to make acquisitions. Which ones do we buy? The answer of course is to buy them all - Buy the GDXJ. Please see the chart of the GDXJ below.

Today the GDXJ was up 3% to close at the line of resistance at $39.18. This stock is poised to breakout to the upside. With the demise of the Swiss Franc gold rose $54.00 to close at $1872. These cash rich major mining companies will be looking to add to their staple gold and silver rich properties and when they choose a company the place they will be looking will be in the GDXJ. The GDXJ is above the 200 day moving average, it is just at the point of breaking resistance and when it does I see nothing but upside potential for the trade. 

I am long GLD, PHYS, IGL, IAU, SLV, PSLV and AGQ.

By George Maniere

http://investingadvicebygeorge.blogspot.com/

In 2004, after retiring from a very successful building career, I became determined to learn all I could about the stock market. In 2009, I knew the market was seriously oversold and committed a serious amount of capital to the market. Needless to say things went quite nicely but I always remebered 2 important things. Hubris equals failure and the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. Please post all comments and questions. Please feel free to email me at maniereg@gmail.com. I will respond.

© 2011 Copyright George Maniere - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in