Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Stock Investors Buy GDX and GDXJ

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Sep 09, 2011 - 02:05 AM GMT

By: George_Maniere

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday morning I had a conversation with a brilliant reader of mine. We spoke about precious metals, the blatant manipulation of the metals (which I am happy to report the Central banks have been unable to sustain) and to point out two stocks that I had not given their fair due.


In fairness, I first learned about the GDX from a fine young analyst but truthfully I could not get my hands around it. If I don’t believe in the fundamentals of the company you can show me charts all day long, I will not buy into the trade until I am convinced that this can be a profitable trade. There have been times that cost me dearly but I simply have my style or system and I don’t stray from it. Part of my style is that when I am wrong I promptly admit it.

Well Mea Culpa! I was wrong. The GDX has seemingly proved me to be wrong. I had espoused my view that this was not anything more than human reaction to gold and silver. I believed that investors would rather own gold and silver above the ground rather than real wealth under the ground.

I have always tried not to be stubborn and not be arrogant. Sadly this stock was recommended to me at $52.00 and I watched it flounder for months and was convinced that I was right in my original premise. What I didn’t see coming was that at some point investors would realize that the cost to bring gold and silver out of the ground were at unbelievably cheap valuations. Oil is cheap and labor is cheap and this only adds to a company’s profit margins. Sooner or later I too would recognize that these stocks were selling at amazingly discounted prices. So rather than bemoan the fact that I came to the party late I choose to embrace the fact that I came at all.

For the last few days I have been studying the GDX (which broke into all time highs yesterday) and the junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ). On any pull backs I'm going to be a buyer and here's why. I know who's who in the GDX. They are the best of the breed mining companies like Barrick (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Kinross (KGC), Anglo Ashanti (AU) just to name a few. While I am conversant in these companies, I have no inside knowledge of when one of these companies will make an acquisition so I think while I do own Barrick and Goldcorp. I feel it would be the most prudent to scale out of them on strength and buy the GDX.

elow is a chart that my reader sent me that overlays the price of gold, the gold miners and The GDX. A study of this chart courtesy of AgoraFinancial.com shows that in the last two weeks the GDX is up 6%, gold is up 4% and the S&P is down 6%.

That leaves me wanting the GDXJ. When one of the majors makes an acquisition it will be from the pool of the GDXJ. There are too many companies in the GDXJ and as Bernard Baruch taught us you only have to be right 2 out of 10 times with small companies like the GDXJ to be successful. There is no doubt that there will be majors trying to make acquisitions. Which ones do we buy? The answer of course is to buy them all - Buy the GDXJ. Please see the chart of the GDXJ below.

Today the GDXJ was up 3% to close at the line of resistance at $39.18. This stock is poised to breakout to the upside. With the demise of the Swiss Franc gold rose $54.00 to close at $1872. These cash rich major mining companies will be looking to add to their staple gold and silver rich properties and when they choose a company the place they will be looking will be in the GDXJ. The GDXJ is above the 200 day moving average, it is just at the point of breaking resistance and when it does I see nothing but upside potential for the trade. 

I am long GLD, PHYS, IGL, IAU, SLV, PSLV and AGQ.

By George Maniere

http://investingadvicebygeorge.blogspot.com/

In 2004, after retiring from a very successful building career, I became determined to learn all I could about the stock market. In 2009, I knew the market was seriously oversold and committed a serious amount of capital to the market. Needless to say things went quite nicely but I always remebered 2 important things. Hubris equals failure and the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. Please post all comments and questions. Please feel free to email me at maniereg@gmail.com. I will respond.

© 2011 Copyright George Maniere - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in