Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
INVESTING IN HIGH RISK TECH STOCKS - ALL OR NOTHING - 16th May 21
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? - 16th May 21
Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
Budgies Birds of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Singing, Chirping and Flying Parakeets Fun 3D VR180 UK - 16th May 21
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? - 16th May 21
Inflation Going Stag - 16th May 21
CHIA Coins After 1st Week of Plotting 140 Plot 14tb Farm. Crunching the Numbers How to Win - 15th May 21
Tips to Create the Best Cross-Functional Teams - 15th May 21
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War - 14th May 21
Are You Invested in America’s “Two-Hour Boom” Fast Shipping Stocks? - 14th May 21
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
6 Solid Signs You Should Have Your Smart Device Repaired Right Away - 14th May 21
Ways to Finance Your Business Growth - 14th May 21
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why Gold and Silver Stocks Are Likely to Rally from Here…

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Nov 05, 2011 - 03:15 AM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs Greece the canary in the coal mine? Less than a week after European leaders crossed the T’s and dotted the I’s on the debt-restructuring plan for Greece, the prime minister's ruling party called for a surprise referendum on the E.U. debt deal. Then on Thursday he called it off.  Sovereign debt and fiat currencies are all paper.
 
All that is happening only heightens talk about gold as money. But first, let’s have a definition of money, it being a subject that interests almost everyone on the planet. Like Voltaire said: “When it’s a question of money everyone is of the same religion.”


Wikipedia defines money as: “Anything that is generally accepted in payment for goods and services and in repayment of debts. The main uses of money are as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value.”

No other commodity has been as universally valued over time and across as many societies as gold and silver. There is an emotional and cultural attachment to it handed down to us through the generations. It is undoubtedly a store of value, it is a unit of account, but is it used as a medium of exchange?

Not really, other than in Utah which took steps recently toward making gold legal tender. Other states have proposed similar measures. But people today are completely unfamiliar with the use of gold as money since everyone uses paper money or bank credit money, such as checks and credit cards.

According to the Austrian economist Carl Menger, its acceptability in trade is the defining property for money and gold does not fit that criteria. According to Menger, while money undoubtedly does serve as a store of value and a unit of account, these properties are derivative, not definitional properties. The reason that a medium of exchange (money) necessarily is also a store of value is the anticipation of its exchange value in the future. The question of whether any particular good is money, can be articulated thus: Is it accepted as the final means of payment for transactions?

At present almost all the nations have their own fiat money or else they belong to a currency union such as the European Union. Some nations use the US dollar. Hardly anywhere do we see gold accepted as a means of payment. So gold must fail the definitional test of being money.

So gold is not really money anymore (not yet?), but keep in mind that it does have most of the desirable properties of money. It is durable, portable and easily divisible into bars and coins that share uniform properties. It is easily recognizable. Gold's value and purchasing power are stable over time, as its supply grows slowly and it cannot be created ad infinitum as fiat paper currency can be.

For nearly three thousand years since the first gold coins were struck in Lydia in 700 BC, Gold's primary use has been recognized as a medium of exchange. The history of gold as money in coin form spans 2630 years, from 700 BC to about 1930 AD. In comparison, the history of paper and base metal and silver coin in circulation spans only about 40 years, from 1930 to 1970. And the history of paper and base metal coin with no connection to Gold or silver, also spans a period now approaching 40 years - from 1970 until today.

So it’s 2, 630 years of history for gold as money versus about 40 years for fiat currencies not tethered to gold.

Leaving history alone, let’s see how the situation looks in the precious metals market this week. We’ll begin the technical part of this essay with the analysis of mining stocks. We will start with the very long-term XAU chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

In the very long-term XAU gold and silver miners’ index chart, we see that index levels are once again trying to move above their 2008 highs. Once this is accomplished, the next stop appears to be considerably higher, and an upside target levels of 220 and 230 (previous highs) seems reasonable. We have a bullish situation at hand.

In the long-term HUI Index chart, the outlook is also bullish. It’s important to note that the RSI level here is still not yet in the overbought range. In the past, tops have previously formed when the RSI level was close to 70. This is not the case today, and although price corrections along the way have been significant, the time that it took was pretty insignificant.

Gold stocks are now close to the 600 level and once this is taken out will likely approach 640. This is the trading range of the September highs and could very well be reached again. The situation here remains bullish at this time.

In the short-term GDX ETF chart, we have seen a breakout which has not yet been confirmed. Based on this factor alone, the situation is only slightly bullish. However, other factors mentioned earlier (XAU and HUI charts) suggest that a move higher is more likely than not. The next target is at the $67 level - at the previous highs.

As far as analysis of the junior mining stocks is concerned, we take the long-term approach, so in most cases we review it on a monthly basis. While we will leave our stock picks to our subscribers, we would like to provide you with a quick overview of the whole sector. We will use the TSX Venture index as a proxy for the junior sector.

Over a month ago, our SP Long-term Junior Indicator had flashed a buy signal which suggested moving back to the junior sector, and so far it appears to have been a profitable move.

The above indicator flashes a buy signal when it moves below the lower dashed line and starts to rise and it flashes a sell signal when the indicator is above the upper dashed line and starts to decline. In this case, we’ve seen the former and it the outlook for juniors is bullish.

As you see, the outlook for juniors reinforces the outlook for senior mining stocks. This is also in line with our outlook on precious metals themselves. The latter was reflected in our latest essay on precious metals and the stock market. In that essay, we wrote the following:

As of now, we are still inclined to think that in the very-short term a move up in gold is more possible than not. This obviously doesn’t alter our long-term bullish outlook in any way.

(…) the analysis of long-term interest rates and of the general stock market suggests possible higher prices across the PM sector in the immediate (!) term.

The situation was bullish last week and continues to be so today. At present, this is also backed up by the developments in miners.

Summing up, the gold and silver mining stocks appear poised to move higher across the board. This is additionally confirmed by the information coming from the junior market.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in