Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? - 30th May
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stock Markets Now Most Vulnerable Position For Major Fall Since 2008

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash Nov 09, 2011 - 07:59 AM GMT

By: Garry_Abeshouse

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bull trap has now been set and the rally in equities is showing definite signs of petering out with the USD as a contrary indicator since mid October, indicating strong signs of base building.
In fact as I write these words equities are falling due to the growing realisation that no solution to the European economic and financial crisis is in the offing.


It was John Maynard Keynes, who in 1945 famously said – “Owe your banker £1000 and you are at his mercy; owe him £1 million and the position is reversed.” These days it’s more like ''If you owe $500 million to a bank, the bank owns you. But if you owe $500 billion to a bank, then you own that bank!''  So much for the euro and bank equities.

In my last market commentary on September 30th 2011, my overview alluded to an extended bear market rally coming to an end:

“As I look over a broad cross-section of daily, weekly and monthly charts all I see is an ever expanding series of complete and/or maturing broadening/diamond tops and upward wedge formations – all with strongly bearish connotations. Historically, I have always associated these types of broadening tops and diamond formations with times of high volatility and confusion, which when resolved, result in very fast and dramatic downward moves.  So when these chart formations have been confirmed as such, especially on the longer term on monthly charts, you know the ‘Bear’ is truly back in force.  Perhaps the politicians and bankers will try their best to delay a full return to a bear market, but it is highly unlikely they will be able to stop it.”

One of the key charts, The Philadelphia banking Index showed the breakdown of a 10 year top, where “ Prices have already collapsed below the recent two year support indicating a return to what will probably be a testing of the 2009 lows. It is very difficult to even try and imagine a longer term bullish scenario for these two charts, even if there is a stronger rally from here.”

As you can see from the charts below, the current weak rally in equities has done nothing to create a more bullish outlook.
This view can be best illustrated by the associated weakness in the Euro. The longer the Euro tries and fails to stay above the 1.400 resistance, the more likely this resistance level will hold, with the most likely scenario a testing of the 2010 lows. I expect a similar outcome for the AUD and British Pound as well. 

Notice how many of the disparate group of charts below, representing a cross-section of vulnerable ‘canary-in-the-coal-mine’ market indicators, have very similar chart patterns, all suggesting bearish outcomes. When any one of these go the rest will follow – and probably soon



Oil



Industrial Metal Prices



Steel



Mining, Oil and Gas



Industrial

Heavy Machinery

 

Building Materials


Aluminium


Shipping


Top 500 USA Companies – Equal Weighted


Top 100 European Companies

Global top 150 companies – Equal weighted

Till next time.

Garry Abeshouse
Technical Analyst.
Sydney
Australia

garrya@bigpond.net.au

I have been practicing Technical Analysis since 1969, learning the hard way during the Australian Mining Boom. I was Head Chartist with Bain & Co, (now Deutsch Bank)in the mid 1970's and am now working freelance. I am currently writing a series of articles for the international "Your Trading Edge" magazine entitled "Market Cycles and Technical Analysis".

I have always specialised in medium to long term market strategies and after discovering the excellent Point & Figure Charts from Stockcharts.com in mid 2008, have concentrated on this style of charting ever since.

© Copyright Garry Abeshouse 2011

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules