Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market SP 500 1,215 & 1,191 Key Support

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011 Nov 11, 2011 - 03:22 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 held at a logical level on Wednesday. Even if stocks eventually break the October 4 lows, another push as high as 1,313 is possible. 1,215 is a widely watched level for the bulls, but 1,191 is also an important area of possible support.


Two of the three steps for a trend change have taken place (see below): (1) price broke the upward sloping trendline in early November and (2) a lower high was made (compare orange arrows). Step three would be to make a lower low via a break of 1,215. A close above 1,244ish would reduce the odds of testing 1,215 in the short run.

The S&P 500 has made two unsuccessful attempts to clear its 200-day moving average (see orange arrows).

It is not uncommon for a bear market to make several runs at and/or above the 200-day moving average. The chart below shows one example from the dot-com bust. Notice the slope of the 200-day is down-to-flat in the chart below, which is very similar to the present day.

A clear, forceful (volume), and sustained break of the 200-day (1,273) would increase the odds of stocks going on to make significant higher highs. Given slowing global growth, serious problems in Europe and central bankers with a limited menu of options, stocks have a lot to overcome. It is important that we keep an open mind since bear markets tend to end when things still look very bad fundamentally.

If you are bullish, you want to see silver (SLV) outperform gold (GLD) – you also want inflation to win out over deflation. The silver ETF is still having trouble with its 50-day (34.06) and more importantly is stalling in the gap between 32.54 and 34.51, just as it did in 2008 (see analysis). If SLV can close above 34.92 and hold above, it would be an important bullish signal for inflation and risk assets.

Some points on Italy from Thursday’s Wall Street Journal:

The latest escalation fed fears that the euro-zone debt crisis is starting down its most perilous path: going from a storm raging among small countries at Europe’s fringe to one that strikes a major economic power.

From there, the risks to the global economy are broad. The European and U.S. financial systems are deeply intertwined, and Europe is a major export market for American companies.

“We are in a war economy,” said Giovanni De Censi, chairman of Italy’s Credito Valtellinese bank, in an interview with Italy’s Radio 24 Wednesday. “I’ve never seen anything like it, liquidity has disappeared.”

Italy’s debt load of €1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion) is the second largest in Europe, behind Germany’s, and the fourth largest in the world. Next year, more than €300 billion of debt comes due, and Italy must continually tap markets to refinance it.

But the underlying worries run much deeper: Italy has a massive public-debt burden and a chaotic political system that is ill-prepared to solve it. European policy makers, who have long bickered over how to protect the Continent from an Italian-size problem, are now facing one with no solution in hand.

Big investors felt comfortable owning big stakes of Italian debt in part because they knew they could sell without much difficulty. That has changed. “It used to be one of the most liquid markets out there, but it isn’t anymore,” said Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. Not long ago, an investor had little problem buying or selling €500 million of Italian bonds at a clip, he said. “Now it’s difficult to trade more than €50 million.” The worsened trading conditions have led to more-exaggerated moves.

Unlike Ireland and Portugal, Italy is far too large to be rescued by the euro zone’s bailout fund. That means there is no backstop if Italy is unable to raise money in the markets.

Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2011 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

    Chris Ciovacco Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in