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Russell Napier on Generational Cycles, Stocks Bear Market Bottoms and West Vs. East

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Nov 22, 2011 - 05:40 AM GMT

By: Aftab_Singh

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRussell Napier (renown financial historian and consultant for CLSA) has articulated some fantastic insights on the generational cycle, bear market bottoms and currencies in recent years. So for this reason we decided to compile a ‘Russell Napier’s Greatest Hits’ video for you to enjoy. See below for the video and summary.


Summary:

  • The Q ratio (the market value of a company over the replacement value of its assets) and the CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE ratio) influence the supply and demand for physical capital and therefore have significant roles in secular trends.
  • An equity is a balance of assets and liabilities – thus an equity can go to 0 in a deflationary (or seemingly deflationary) environment. Movements in commodity prices can indicate when deflation risk is passing.
  • ‘The Great Reset’ in asset prices would involve a surprise rise in real interest rates where the distortion in the US treasury market would be unwound.
  • Bear market bottoms are characterised by apathy rather than despair — ‘it’s when people don’t want to play anymore’.
  • The stimulus ‘required’ for the West is far too large for the East.
  • The West is on a trend towards more intervention and bureaucracy, whereas the East may be on a trend towards stagnating or even decreasing intervention and bureaucracy.

Aftab Singh is an independent analyst. He writes about markets & political economy at http://greshams-law.com .

© 2011 Copyright Aftab Singh - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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