Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK - 25th June 22
Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? - 25th June 22
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level - 25th June 22
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally - 23rd June 22
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks - 23rd June 22
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet - 23rd June 22
How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market - 23rd June 22
Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here - 23rd June 22
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend - 22nd June 22
Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook- 22nd June 22
Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? - 22nd June 22
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast - 21st June 22
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet - 21st June 22
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing - 21st June 22
How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered - 21st June 22
How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation - 21st June 22
AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? - 20th June 22
Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup - 20th June 22
Personal Finance Tips: How To Get Out Of A Tough Financial Situation - 20th June 22
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth - 19th June 22
Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? - 19th June 22
Useful Things You Need To Know About Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern - 19th June 22
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend - 17th June 22
Why I’m buying the “new” value stocks… - 17th June 22
Optimize Benefits from R&D in Software Product Development with an R&D Tax Credit Software - 17th June 22
Want To Save On Your Business Energy? Here Are Some Helpful Tips - 17th June 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Silver Market Lacks Integrity

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Nov 23, 2011 - 12:17 AM GMT

By: Ron_Hera

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an incredibly powerful interview with Keith Neumeyer, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR / NYSE:AG).

Mr. Neumeyer began his career at the Vancouver Stock Exchange and worked in the investment community for 26 years beginning his career in a series of Canadian national brokerage firms including McLeod Young Weir (now Scotia McLeod), then Richardson Greenshields and then Walwyn Stogell McCuthchen (which became Midland Walwyn).


Mr. Neumeyer moved on to work with several publically traded companies in the natural resource and high technology sectors. His roles have included senior management positions and directorships in the areas of finance, business development, strategic planning and corporate restructuring. Mr. Neumeyer, who has listed a number of companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange, has extensive experience dealing with financial, regulatory, legal and accounting issues.

Hera Research Newsletter (HRN): Thank you for joining us today. Let's begin by talking about silver supply and demand.

Keith Neumeyer: Silver mine production was around 736 million ounces in 2010. Demand was around 1 billion ounces. Scrap silver recycling and some government sales filled the gap. We're at historic lows in terms of above ground silver. Eric Sprott recently said there are 1 billion ounces of triple nine silver left aboveground. Unlike gold, silver gets used. We're at historic highs in supply when it comes to gold, but the exact opposite is true for silver.

World Silver Supply

HRN: Is there a deficit in terms of mine supply?

Keith Neumeyer: We've had a supply deficit for the past 13 years. 2009 was the first year we created equilibrium. We only went into a surplus in 2010, in terms of industrial and jewelry fabrication demand. The surplus mine supply was purchased by investors, obviously. A lot of mining companies are showing lower production because a lot of silver comes from base metals and, with lower base metals prices, it's becoming more difficult. I don't see any major supply drivers for silver in the next several years.

HRN: Do you expect more scrap silver to enter the market?

Keith Neumeyer: That's what happened in 2009 when gold rallied over $1,200 and then corrected to below $1,100. It was primarily caused by scrap gold entering the market. I believe the same thing was happening for silver. We'll see that again as the metals make new highs. It's the same as a stock. You replace part of the shareholder base at different levels.

HRN: Are you optimistic about future demand?

Keith Neumeyer: Yes, I've been optimistic about silver since 2002 because silver is a strategic metal. I think it's more important than gold.

HRN: Are there new applications that could increase demand?

Keith Neumeyer: We're seeing all kinds of new applications. A recent report by Barclays forecast that 120 million ounces of silver will be used for solar power generation in 2012 versus 40 million ounces in 2009. The battery industry is growing as well. Zinc-silver batteries provide very stable capacity--their output doesn't degrade like lithium batteries--and they deliver 40% more energy compared to nickel metal-hydride batteries. They're safer than water-based chemical batteries because they don't heat up or explode. They're also mercury free and 95% recyclable. Lithium-ion batteries in cell phones, for example, need to be replaced after 12 to 18 months. I'm very optimistic about battery technology. There are also robotics and other applications on the horizon.

World Silver Demand

HRN: What's your long term price target for silver?

Keith Neumeyer: Silver will reach a value based on its natural ratio of 15:1 with gold. I expect to see at least $2,000 gold and most likely $3,000 in the next 3 to 5 years, so silver will be between $130 and $200. It's a big number from where we are today but that's where I think we're headed. We're dealing with a market that needs to be corrected.

HRN: Isn't the price of silver set by supply and demand?

Keith Neumeyer: I don't think supply and demand has anything to do with the price, unfortunately. The world we live in today is a paper environment where silver is priced by financial circumstances. Banks, traders and investors around the world move markets to where they want them to be. Governments and commercials--big banks like HSBC and JP Morgan--all have a piece of the action. They alternately work together or sometimes against each other. All these forces price the metal. That's one reason we're seeing the volatility that we're seeing today.

HRN: How can supply and demand be irrelevant?

Keith Neumeyer: In short term trading, the price is financially driven. Eventually, markets do correct themselves over time. In the long run, supply and demand does have influence. That's why the price will ultimately return to its natural ratio of 15:1.

HRN: How is the price of silver financially driven?

Keith Neumeyer: It has to do with the financial instruments that we trade in and with the fact that silver trades a billion ounces per day on the COMEX alone when there are 26 to 30 million ounces of silver available for delivery. With that kind of leverage, you just don't have a proper market.

HRN: It has been reported that there are 100 ounces under contract for every ounce in the COMEX warehouse.

Keith Neumeyer: The governments, regulators and bullion banks have let the silver market get more and more leveraged. We've seen a lot of wealth destruction as a result of this leverage and we're going to see a lot more until, finally, the governments decide to change the system.

HRN: Isn't the COMEX guaranteeing market integrity, by raising margins, for example?

Keith Neumeyer: I don't buy the argument on margin hikes at all.

HRN: Don't margin hikes prevent dangerous asset price bubbles?

Keith Neumeyer: It's not up to them to decide what is parabolic. They're not investors themselves. They don't have money in the market. They decide a bubble is going to happen if they don't raise margins but no one knows when a bubble is forming. It is only apparent after it's already happened. By hiking the margins, they create the appearance of a bubble bursting. They create the bubble. They create the proof that it was a bubble. If they let it alone, the market would stabilize by itself.

HRN: What should the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) do?

Keith Neumeyer: The job of the regulators is to protect the retail investor. That's their only job. It's not to protect the banks or the brokerage firms. The little guy is the primary taxpayer. Why were the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CFTC put in place? They were put in place to protect retail investors. Prior to regulation, the banks controlled the market. Today, the banks control the market again. Who should control the market? Retail investors. Who's protecting them? No one.

HRN: Are you saying that the CFTC does nothing while the COMEX caters to banks and brokerage firms?

Keith Neumeyer: Yes.

HRN: And the COMEX doesn't serve retail investors?

Keith Neumeyer: No. Absolutely not.

HRN: Do you foresee a return to a free market in the future?

Keith Neumeyer: I'm an optimist. I believe one day that governments will rewrite the rules and force the regulators to protect investors. That's where we were back in the '70s and that's where I think we have to be again to correct the problems that have arisen over the past 40 years. Silver is being revalued. It's going to affect a lot of people along the way and it will change the financial system. Ultimately, we're going to have a new financial system and, hopefully, we'll go back to natural markets, completely driven by supply and demand. It may take another 20 years but I think it will happen.

HRN: A new financial system?

Keith Neumeyer: If I'm wrong, the banks will run the world, even more so than they do today, 10 or 20 years from now. God forbid that we ever get there because that's a one currency, one government world that would absolutely be a disaster for the human race. There would be no freedoms at all to move or to invest. It would be like having shackles on our ankles. There is a movement to go in that direction, unfortunately. There are a number of very wealthy people that want to see that. I hope that we can find the politicians to prevent that type of world from coming to pass.

HRN: Thank you for your time and for your candor.

Keith Neumeyer: It was a pleasure.

 


Keith Neumeyer, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR / NYSE:AG) is an industry leader who analyzes the silver market with the gloves off. In the wake of the failure of commodities trading firm MF Global, Mr. Neumeyer's lack of confidence in the CFTC and in the integrity of the COMEX appears to be justified.

First Majestic Silver, which is one of a small number of primary silver producers, has consistently increased its production, cash margins and mineral resources while lowering production costs. With three operating mines and a fourth mine under construction, the company is growing steadily from a junior producer to a mid-tier producer that expects to produce 10 million ounces of silver in 2012.

Editor's Note: Hera Research, LLC or its Directors are shareholders in First Majestic Silver Corp.

By Ron Hera

http://www.heraresearch.com/

About Hera Research
Hera Research, LLC, provides deeply researched analysis to help investors profit from changing economic and market conditions.  Hera Research focuses on relationships between macroeconomics, government, banking, and financial markets in order to identify and analyze investment opportunities with extraordinary upside potential. Hera Research is currently researching mining and metals including precious metals, oil and energy including green energy, agriculture, and other natural resources.  The Hera Research Newsletter covers key economic data, trends and analysis including reviews of companies with extraordinary value and upside potential.

###

Articles by Ron Hera, the Hera Research web site and the Hera Research Newsletter ("Hera Research publications") are published by Hera Research, LLC. Information contained in Hera Research publications is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in Hera Research publications is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet individual financial situations. The opinions expressed in Hera Research publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in such publications may become outdated and Hera Research, LLC has no obligation to update any such information.

Ron Hera, Hera Research, LLC, and other entities in which Ron Hera has an interest, along with employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. The policies of Hera Research, LLC attempt to avoid potential conflicts of interest and to resolve conflicts of interest should any arise in a timely fashion.

Unless otherwise specified, Hera Research publications including the Hera Research web site and its content and images, as well as all copyright, trademark and other rights therein, are owned by Hera Research, LLC. No portion of Hera Research publications or web site may be extracted or reproduced without permission of Hera Research, LLC. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as conferring any license or right under any copyright, trademark or other right of Hera Research, LLC. Unauthorized use, reproduction or rebroadcast of any content of Hera Research publications or web site, including communicating investment recommendations in such publication or web site to non-subscribers in any manner, is prohibited and shall be considered an infringement and/or misappropriation of the proprietary rights of Hera Research, LLC.

Hera Research, LLC reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund to the subscriber the amount of the subscription payment previously received relating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of Hera Research publications or website, any infringement or misappropriation of Hera Research, LLC's proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of Hera Research, LLC. ©2011 Hera Research, LLC.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in