Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
USDT Ponzi Scheme FINAL WARNING To EXIT Before Tether Collapses Crypto Exchange Markets - 22nd Jun 21
Stock Market Correction Starting - 22nd Jun 21
This Green SuperFuel Could Change Everything For the $14 Trillion Shipping Industry - 22nd Jun 21
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! - 16th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How You Can Profit From the Natural Gas Market's Next Big Collapse

Commodities / Natural Gas May 12, 2012 - 04:15 AM GMT

By: Marin_Katusa

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research writes: If you think the bloodbath is over for natural gas stocks, think again...

Despite falling 50% over the past year, many natural gas stocks are about to enter another major decline.

And if you know what's going on here, you can use this coming decline to make huge capital gains over the next 12 months.


The key idea in this coming trade is something called "reserve write downs." It will cause billions of dollars of market valuation to vanish... overnight. Some very well-known energy firms (that you might own) will suffer huge share price declines.

Here's how it's going to work...

A resource estimate is a geologic "best guess" of how much of a commodity exists within a particular deposit, be it ounces of gold, barrels of oil, or cubic feet of natural gas. A geologist takes information about the deposit's size and grade from drilling results... and then creates a statistical model of the deposit. From that model, he or she can estimate the size of the resource.

However, the amount in the ground is not the amount that can be produced. That's where the reserve estimate comes in. Reserves are a whittled-down subset of total resources. That whittling-down process has two steps.

First, geologic and technologic factors determine a resource's recovery rate, reducing the resource to the parts that are "technically recoverable." For example, recovering oil in conventional fields like those in Saudi Arabia is much easier than recovering oil trapped in tight layers of rock.

Then, economic considerations further reduce the resource to only the bits that are "economically recoverable." In other words, the higher the price of a given commodity, the higher the "economically recoverable" reserves are. If oil is at $120 per barrel, a field has much more "economically recoverable" oil than it does when oil is at $60 per barrel. The higher prices allow firms to spend more money to recover more oil.

With natural gas, the advent of horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing altered the first parameter dramatically, ballooning North America's technically recoverable gas resources. And while natural gas prices held steady, reserves ballooned too.

The key bit there was "while gas prices held." 

But that honeymoon is over. Natural gas prices in North America have declined roughly 35% this year and are down approximately 60% over the last 12 months. Compared to the unsustainable highs reached in 2008, gas prices have fallen more than 80%.

Natural gas has become a victim of its own success. The incredible technological successes of the last decade enabled producers to book massive volumes of natural gas resources... and increase output significantly.

The result: supply overwhelmed demand, and natural gas prices tanked. This has already crushed natural gas producers... But it's going to get worse.

Companies are valued according to their reserves. And remember, reserves are defined as resources that are economic to extract using existing technology.

Natural gas is now worth less than $2 per MMBtu (the standard pricing unit for natural gas), less than half the $5.82 per MMBtu it has been worth on average over the last decade. A much-reduced price means that less of North America's new natural gas bounty is anywhere close to economic.

And that means reserves – and stock prices – are about to fall dramatically.

Companies haven't downgraded their gas reserves yet because reserve calculations use the 12-month strip price, which is based on gas futures over the coming year. Changes in the strip price lag changes in the spot price.

"AECO" is the price of natural gas in Alberta... and is one of the leading gas benchmarks for North America. Right now, the AECO spot price is C$1.53 per MMBtu... while the year-to-date average AECO 12-month strip – which is the price producers use for reserve estimates – is C$3.21.

But even though it is a bit behind in its decline, the strip price is on the same downward spiral as the spot price... And soon, it will take reserve counts down with it.

When the strip price comes into line with the spot price – and the reserve overvaluation that a higher strip price has been creating disappears – I expect most natural gas companies will be forced to downgrade their reserves by 40%.

When they do, investors will flee, share prices will fall, and the already-pummeled natural gas sector will have to endure another beating. That's why I recommend investors avoid – or consider shorting – companies vulnerable to the coming decline.

In tomorrow's essay, I'll show you a few specific companies... and the other dynamic that will drive them much lower.

Regards, 

Marin Katusa

P.S. In the coming weeks and months, I plan to show readers of my Casey Energy Report how to make some of the biggest, safest gains of their lives from the coming wipeout in gas stocks. I know it sounds crazy, but I believe this situation offers a very low-risk way to make a lot of money in 2012. You can get all of my research, and my favorite ways to trade this idea, by coming on board as a subscriber. You can click here to learn more.

© 2012 Copyright Casey Research - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in