Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21
Why Tether USDT, Stable Scam Coins Could COLLAPSE the Crypto Markets - Black Swan 2021 - 6th Jun 21
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold - 6th Jun 21
Apple (AAPL) Summer Correction Stock Trend Analysis - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out - 5th Jun 21
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold - 5th Jun 21
Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Buying Levels Price Targets - 4th Jun 21
Scan Computers - How to Test New Systems CPU, GPU and Hard Drive Stability With Free Software - 4th Jun 21
Hedge Funds Getting Bullish on Gold - 4th Jun 21
THERE ARE NO SOLUTIONS When the Media is the VIRUS - 4th Jun 21
Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind - 4th Jun 21
US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon - 4th Jun 21
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 21
No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos - 3rd Jun 21
Bank run, or run from the banks? - 3rd Jun 21
This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 3rd Jun 21
The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top - 2nd Jun 21
Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? - 2nd Jun 21
Biden’s Alternate Inflation Universe - 2nd Jun 21
What You Should Know Before Buying Car Insurance - 2nd Jun 21
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Summer Prime Day Discount Sale - 1st Jun 21
Gold Investor's Survival Guide - 1st Jun 21
Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push - 1st Jun 21
Will Gold Shine Under Bidenomics? - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Consolidation Ahead - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets - 31st May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Option Traders Profit From The Passage of Time

InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants Jul 18, 2012 - 12:33 PM GMT

By: J_W_Jones

InvestorEducation

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy most recent missive discussed some of the nuances of the options Greek, Delta which deals with the change in option price with regard to changes in price of the underlying. Today I would like to examine some of the practical details surrounding the second of the primal forces describing the behavior of options with regard to the passage of time. This second Greek is Theta.

As opposed to the value of a stock position which varies only in relation to changes in price, options are subject to changes in value as a result of the interplay of three factors: price of the underlying, time to expiration, and implied volatility.


Before we delve into describing the operational characteristics of Theta, we need to talk about the anatomy of an options price. Although it is quoted as a single bid / ask pair of quotes, the options price reflected on your quote screen actually consists of the sum of two components – the extrinsic and the intrinsic value of the option in question.

The intrinsic value of an option is that portion of the option that has value by virtue of the current stock price. For example, AAPL currently trades around $607 / share as I write this. The August 600 strike call trades at around $27.00. The intrinsic value portion of that premium is ($607-$600 = $7).

Intrinsic values of a given option can vary from essentially the entirety of the option value for a deep in-the-money option to $0 for an out-of-the-money option.  In our AAPL example, the out-of-the-money strike of $610 sells for $22 and contains $0 of intrinsic value.

Conversely, the extrinsic value of the option is the value attributable to the option as a result of the perceived potential of it to move to that strike price during the life of the option. The market value of our $610 strike call consists entirely of extrinsic value. A critical point of understanding is that the extrinsic value of the option will always go to O at expiration.

It is this extrinsic value that is impacted by factors described by our two major remaining Greeks, Theta and Vega. It is important to recognize that the impact in changes  in Theta will most noticeably impact options consisting of mostly or entirely extrinsic premium. Deep in-the-money options which have little extrinsic premium will be effected little by the passage of time.

Let us now consider how these facts can help construct high probability trades.  Positions using options can be constructed to benefit from the passage of time (positive theta trades) or to be negatively impacted by time passage (negative theta trades). Since time only moves in one direction, all else being equal the group of positive Theta trades dramatically increase our probability of success.

Another important fact of which to be aware is the time course of the Theta decay of option premium. Premium does not decay at the same rate over the course of the lifespan of an individual option. The erosion of time premium occurs slowly when abundant time remains to expiration, but accelerates rapidly as the final days of an option’s life approach. This relationship is graphically illustrated below:

Options Trading Newsletter

Chart Courtesy of TradingPlan.com

As an example, consider two possible ways to construct a bullish position in AAPL. The first example is the type of position that most newcomers to our world of options typically establish. With AAPL trading at $606, the August 605 call with 32 days to expiration can be bought for around $24.50. This price reflects $1 of intrinsic value and $23.50 of extrinsic value. This is a negative theta trade; it is negatively impacted by the passage of time at a rate of around $37 / day. The P&L graph is displayed below:

Options Trade Newsletter

Several points bear emphasis in this position. First, profits are maximized with a quick move to the upside before time decay of the option has time to become pronounced.

Second, the price of AAPL at expiration must have increased by an amount sufficient to offset the extrinsic premium paid when the option was purchased.   Given the statistical probabilities we have discussed over the last several weeks, this position has a 35% chance of profitability at expiration.

Let’s now look at the other side of the coin. The August 605 put can be sold short for around $22.50. This is a positive Theta trade and accrues and benefits from the passage of time at around $37 / day. This trade has a probability of profit of 67%, almost twice that of the long call structure.

Options Trade Structure

 

These positions are obviously not identical. The long call has unlimited potential profit while the short put is capped at a maximum profit of the initial credit received. Also, the put seller has the non-negotiable obligation to buy AAPL shares at the $605 strike anytime between the time the position was opened and expiration.

The beginning options trader is well advised to understand the behavior of his positions with respect to the Greeks and the impact these metrics have on profitability.

There is no free lunch, but experienced successful traders have found that putting probabilities on your side dramatically increase the chances of a long options trading career.

Happy Option Trading!

If you are looking for a simple one trade per week trading style then be sure to join www.OptionsTradingSignals.com today with our 14 Day Trial.

 J.W. Jones is an independent options trader using multiple forms of analysis to guide his option trading strategies. Jones has an extensive background in portfolio analysis and analytics as well as risk analysis. J.W. strives to reach traders that are missing opportunities trading options and commits to writing content which is not only educational, but entertaining as well. Regular readers will develop the knowledge and skills to trade options competently over time. Jones focuses on writing spreads in situations where risk is clearly defined and high potential returns can be realized. 

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.  


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in