Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

When Will U.S. Interest Rates Rise?

Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Jan 10, 2013 - 03:25 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Interest-Rates

Recently I was asked a question that I suspect has been on many investors' minds. Here's the question: "Is it possible that the bond market will be the market to tumble into 2014, and as it does, the general market decline is mitigated by the rotation of money out of bonds and into stocks?"

Here's my answer: Anything is possible in today's upside-down world. As my late friend and mentor Bud Kress used to ask, "Does anything surprise you anymore?" But I'd have to say here - and I firmly believe Bud would echo this sentiment - if there's any validity to the 120-year Kress cycle, a sustainable rising interest rate trend isn't likely until after October 2014.


The 120-year Mega Cycle - and its 40-year and 60-year components - is deflationary whenever they're in the "hard down" phase, as they are between now and then. I make no claims to being an expert in bonds, but isn't the scenario described above (viz. rising rates) essentially part-and-parcel of an inflationary environment? With deflation still making its presence felt in the global economy, I can't see rising interest rates on a sustained basis until after 2014.

Structural deflation is chiefly characterized by three things: 1.) falling wages, 2.) falling interest rates, 3.) falling money velocity. One of the best illustrations of the deflationary long-term cycle can be seen in the graph of the 10-year Treasury rate shown here.

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10)

Note the peak in the interest rate in the early 1980s - exactly when the 60-year Kress cycle of inflation/deflation peaked. The next scheduled bottom of the 60-year cycle is for late 2014. To date, long-term interest rates have conformed to the deflationary implication of this cycle as you can see in the above graph.

Money velocity (that is, the turnover in money within the domestic economy) also peaked around 1980 and has been declining ever since.

Velocity of MZM Money Stock

On a short-to-intermediate-term basis it may be possible to see rising interest rates, much as we did in the year 2007. Year 2007, you may recall, was an extremely volatile year and was a precursor to the credit crisis year of 2008. I strongly suspect 2013 will in some ways mirror 2007. In 2007, Treasury rates rallied in the first half of the year before collapsing heading into the hyper-deflationary year 2008.

Note the firmly established long-term downtrend channel in the interest rate below. Rates have recently fallen below the lower boundary of the channel, which constitutes a "channel buster." This in turn suggests an "oversold" condition and therefore suggests that rates could rise in the near term to recovery temporarily back inside the channel. I don't expect the rally (assuming it materializes) to persist for more than a few months.

tNX Monthly

Now the big question is what happens to all those hundreds of billions of dollars created in recent years - the record corporate cash pile, bank reserves, etc. - AFTER 2014? It doesn't take much imagination to foresee a period of hyper-inflation being stoked once the downside pressure of the 120-year cycle is lifted. Unless I miss my guess, it will be in 2015 and thereafter when we'll see rising interest rates and the corresponding long-term collapse in bond prices

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at:

http://www.clifdroke.com/books/destiny.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Momentum Strategies Report newsletter.

By Clif Droke

www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in