Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate - 20th Aug 19
Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold - 20th Aug 19
Top 6 Tips to Attract Followers On SoundCloud - 20th Aug 19
Holiday Nightmares - Your Caravan is Missing! - 20th Aug 19
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast - 20th Aug 19
The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup - 20th Aug 19
5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker - 20th Aug 19
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 12th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward - 12th Aug 19
All Eyes On Copper - 12th Aug 19
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold - 12th Aug 19
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil - 12th Aug 19
Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained - 12th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Case of the Missing Corn

Commodities / Agricultural Commodities Aug 19, 2013 - 02:24 PM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt


200 million bushels of corn suddenly disappear. Could the mystery of the disappearing corn be rich material for Erle Stanley Gardner? Probably not. Most of that disappearing corn was fantasy corn, existing only in the imagination of some forecasters. That missing corn was revealed in USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates(WASDE). Further, analysis of USDA's acreage certification report by Bryce Knorr of suggests that USDA estimates for U.S. corn acreage may be too high by as much as 2.7 million acres. Should Knorr be correct, another 300 million bushels of corn may disappear.

Much has been written about the size of the U.S. corn crop to be harvested this coming Fall. Per the latest WASDE, the world will have 58.9 days of corn consumption in reserve at the end of August 2014. That estimate presumes that the demand forecasts are accurate. Demand higher than forecast, which is quite likely, would make the situation worse. When global demand growth is considered, December corn has likely already made a long-term low, one not to be revisited.

Not part of the typical demand calculation is that represented by small speculators. Per the COT from the U.S. CFTC, small speculators were net short more than 80 thousand contracts for future delivery of corn. As contracts mature, those short corn must eventually repurchase contracts representing more than 400 million bushels. That additional "demand" should support prices.

August is when reality begins for Agri-Grain forecasts. Up till then it is all paper grains. In August the real counting begins. Latest WASDE seems to have reset the mood in Agri-Commodity markets. While admittedly too short a time, since the beginning of August a new tone has settled into Agri-Commodity markets as shown in following graph of percentage price changes thus far in August.

Agri-Food Prices Percent Change Chart

First thing to note in that chart is the world of Agri-Food is far more than corn. Agri-Commodity prices have been strong thus far in August. Material weakness is evident only in butter and the stock market, both of which are known for being somewhat "greasy". Finally, commodities in general have developed strength this month. We note that not a month ago Agri-Commodities and precious metals, Gold and Silver, were "written off" by many investment "gurus".

Tier One Agri-Equities versus S&P500 Chart

In the above chart is plotted our index of Tier One Agri-Equities. As can be readily observed, ignoring Agri-Equities, as many gurus would have had you do, has had a serious cost. Agri-Equities are in their seventh year of performance. The years ahead? People of the world will eat everyday. Consumers in developing nations are going to further upgrade their diets. Quite simply, incomes in China and the developing world are rising faster than the world's ability to produce Agri-Food. That situation suggests higher prices and volumes over time, and that means higher revenues for Agri-Industries.

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS is from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Agri-Food Value View, a monthly exploration of the Agri-Food grand cycle being created by China, India, and Eco-energy. To contract Ned or to learn more, use this link:

Copyright © 2013 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules