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Gold's Bull Days Are Back? Making Green from Gold, Palladium and Pollution

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Mar 11, 2014 - 10:20 AM GMT

By: Frank_Holmes

Commodities

Gold is coming back with a vengeance, experiencing a clear recovery and grabbing the attention of market cynics. Analysts from Noruma Securities even upgraded its outlook for gold, expecting bullion to climb over the next three years, according to Barron's.

Nomura analysts attribute their increased gold forecast to real interest rates that "don't seem to be heading anywhere at the moment." In addition, there appears to be "long-term demand support from Asian nominal income growth, an evolving post-QE macroeconomic environment and lower disinvestment potential."


Gold is also gleaming a little brighter in Japan, as its central bank announced that monetary policies will remain very accommodative. With a weakening yen, gold will likely be seen as a store of value for Japanese investors.

Palladium Near Its Highest Level in Almost a Year

Two global events recently colluded that dramatically affected the palladium and platinum market. The situation in Ukraine and Russia along with six-week-long strikes in South Africa began raising concerns that these palladium-rich countries may not be able to continue supplying the commodity at normal levels.

Currently South Africa supplies around 37 percent of the world's palladium; Russia supplies close to 40 percent of the world's palladium.

What does this all mean for the palladium and its sister platinum? It seems that fear surrounding the international political landscape is helping to push the precious metals prices higher and higher.

You can see the effect the political landscape is having on palladium. Over the past year, the metal has mainly traded sideways, but this week hit its highest level in almost a year. The precious metal reached $775 per ounce while its sister, platinum, climbed to nearly $1,500 an ounce.

In January, I indicated that platinum and palladium looked extremely compelling. There were supply and demand drivers I felt would drive the metals higher.

Just last week, the U.S. Mint is "ending a four-year exit from the market" by selling one-ounce American Eagle platinum bullion coins, writes Frank Tang from Reuters. According to a wholesaler last week, initial demand is strong, as 1,000 coins have already been scooped up.

Like I discussed with Resource Investing News at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, industrial demand has been gaining strength. Take rising automobile sales in the U.S. that I talked about a few months ago. With interest rates on car loans so low, Americans have been replacing their clunkers with more fuel efficient cars, which is positive for platinum and palladium.

It's a similar story in emerging markets. In Africa, the GDP without a leveraged economy is still growing at 5 percent, and you definitely need platinum and palladium for their vehicles, even if they are diesel.

In China, vehicle sales last year rose faster than expected, climbing nearly 14 percent compared to a year earlier, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The country is already the biggest automobile market in the world and millions of new cars on the roads add up fast.

See the interview here.

We're pleased that our technical models signaled initial bullish signs, as our palladium- and platinum-related holdings helped boost the returns of the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX).

Renewable Energy Could Get You More Green

In our webcast last week, Brian Hicks, portfolio manager of the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), talked about four opportunities he sees in resources over 2014.

One relates to China's focus on alternative energy.

See the other three opportunities now.

In BP's latest Energy Outlook 2035, you can see the incredible long-term growth anticipated in the renewable energy industry. In terms of volume growth, China is expected to surpass the European Union countries by 2035. Based on this secular transformation, the local clean energy sector should continue to benefit.

China's Commitment to Combatting Pollution Should Benefit Renewable Energy Industry

Specifically, wind power and solar look especially attractive, especially given the excessive pollution in the Asian giant. Take a look at CLSA data: In 2009, the country had about 0.2 percent of the global market. By 2014, it's estimated to grow to one third of the global market.

China isn't the only country with a growing renewable energy market. After the massive earthquake hit Japan in 2011, the solar market is taking off there too.

Chinese Solar: From 3 Percent of the Global Market to One Third in Three Years

If you were too busy to tune into our webcast last week, you missed a good discussion among Brian Hicks, John Derrick and me. It was an hour chock-filled with investing ideas in the U.S. market, emerging countries, resources and gold. However, it's not too late to watch the replay at your leisure this weekend.

Watch it now.

Want to receive more commentaries like this one? Sign up to receive email updates from Frank Holmes and the rest of the U.S. Global Investors team, follow us on Twitter or like us on Facebook.

By Frank Holmes

CEO and Chief Investment Officer

U.S. Global Investors

U.S. Global Investors, Inc. is an investment management firm specializing in gold, natural resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure opportunities around the world. The company, headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, manages 13 no-load mutual funds in the U.S. Global Investors fund family, as well as funds for international clients.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.

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