Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? - 25th Sep 21
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling - 25th Sep 21
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? - 25th Sep 21
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences - 25th Sep 21
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield - 25th Sep 21
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Preparing to Launch as U.S. Dollar Drops to Key Support

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Apr 12, 2014 - 10:51 AM GMT

By: Jason_Hamlin

Commodities

Gold bugs have been forecasting a dollar collapse for years. They have been correct about the gold price, which has advanced nearly 400% in the past 12 years versus a gain of just 64% for the S&P 500. They were also correct about the dollar during the first phase of the gold bull market (2001-2008), when the USD index fell from 120 to around 72.


But the dollar did not continue to plummet after 2008 and indeed has held up remarkably well. The USD index has put in a series of higher lows over the past few years, showing strength against other currencies. But this strength is being tested once again as the index has fallen to critical support around the 80 level. While these tests of support are typically spaced out by several months, this will be the second test of support in the past month. Pressure on the U.S. dollar appears to be increasing and failure of support could ignite a massive decline.

Looking back to the start of the gold bull market, we see that gold and the dollar have maintained a fairly consistent inverse relationship. When the dollar moved up, gold moved down. When the dollar fell, gold pushed higher. The only major exceptions were 2005 and early 2010, when gold and the dollar moved higher in lockstep.

It is interesting to note that over the first 12 years on this chart, there was never been a prolonged period where gold and the dollar dropped together. This has changed over the past year.

When we zoom in on the chart, we can see a new anomaly in boxes 1, 2 and 3, whereby the gold price has been dropping alongside the dollar, rather than rallying. If we add together gold’s losses in these three boxes, we get a decline of nearly $300, despite a weakening of the U.S. dollar. Something is clearly out of whack as gold has failed to push higher against the backdrop of a lower dollar for the first time in over a decade.

Lastly, in box 4 we can see gold rising alongside the U.S. dollar for the first time since 2010. When combining these time periods, gold and the USD have actually had a positive correlation for a good part of the past 18 months.

I believe the anomaly is due to increased manipulation and use of HFT algos in the precious metals market. I don’t suspect that the positive correlation will persist, especially with the increasing spotlight on gold price manipulation. Additionally, fundamental conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for a major drop in the value of the U.S. dollar.

There is a growing movement to dump U.S. dollars in global trade in favor of local currencies or even gold. Russia and China appear to be spearheading these efforts, with new bilateral trade deals that bypass the U.S. dollar and additional agreements with BRICS nations to use Rubbles or local currencies. Russia has also set up agreements to purchase oil from Iran with Rubbles, Yuan or even gold. Central banks are increasingly replacing dollar reserves with Yuan reserves and the increased spotlight on the manipulation in the gold market could hamper the ability of the United States to continue propping up the dollar.

These developments are all very bearish for the U.S dollar, whose days as world reserve currency appear to be numbered. Given the debt levels of the U.S. government, unprecedented money printing to bail out the banks and keep the economy afloat over the past 5 years and growing distrust and distaste for the U.S. following the NSA revelations, one has to wonder if the whole house of cards could come crumbling down sometime soon.

Gold has been the major benefactor, up roughly 10% year to date. The technical chart has turned bullish, with gold breaking through long-term resistance in February. It put in a rough double bottom, followed by outlines of a cup and handle pattern, both bullish indicators. The RSI is pointing higher with room to run and I expect gold will be above $1,500 within the next few months.

Gold bugs may have been too early in their call for the dollar’s demise, but the prediction may prove true yet. With the stock market looking to be in the midst of a major crash, precious metals would seem the obvious buy at the moment. Gold is one of the only asset classes that does not appear overheated and wildly overvalued at current levels. Whether the dollar collapses suddenly or dies a slow death, you will want to have gold and silver in your portfolio to protect your wealth.

To get regular updates like this in your inbox and more thoughts on why I believe the end of the current monetary system and collapse of the petro-dollar is near, consider signing up for the Gold Stock Bull premium membership. You will get our monthly contrarian newsletter, access to the GSB model portfolio, email trade alerts whenever we are buying/selling and a free subscription to our technology newsletter with updates on Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies. You can try it out for just $39 before committing to a full year subscription.

By Jason Hamlin

http://www.goldstockbull.com/

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Gold Stock Bull and publishes a monthly contrarian newsletter that contains in-depth research into the markets with a focus on finding undervalued gold and silver mining companies. The Premium Membership includes the newsletter, real-time access to the model portfolio and email trade alerts whenever Jason is buying or selling. You can try it for just $35/month by clicking here.

Copyright © 2014 Gold Stock Bull - All Rights Reserved

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in