Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

It's Going To Get Awful Hot In The USA This Century

Politics / Climate Change Jun 26, 2014 - 02:08 PM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop


More Deadly Than The US Has Ever Seen
Bloomberg sites are giving wall-to-wall coverage to the latest “shock report” on global warming. The report titled “Risky Business” was commissioned by Michael Bloomberg himself – helping explain its promotion by Bloomberg sites -  and his tight-knit group of former and present business and political associates, including ex-Treasury secretaries Henry Paulson, George Schulz and Robert Rubin. The report kicks off the Doomster list with predictions that “by the end of the century, between $238 billion and $507 billion of existing coastal property in the U.S. will likely be subsumed by rising seas, and crop yields in some breadbasket states may decline as much 70 percent”.

Heatstroke deaths in the US will soar. About 95 000 MW of new power capacity will be needed only in the 25-year period to 2039 to turn the fans and air chillers in homes and businesses. US labor productivity growth – which was already falling or stalling – will turn to outright decline of output producing a “far bigger productivity slowdown than any of the 20th century”.

Curiously enough, the featured articles listed with this story on Bloomberg sites of course include triumphal Told You So articles about how hot it was in May 2014, worldwide, and Tesla batteries for Low Carbon motoring, but also included The World's 10 Leading Beers (which aren't the ones you thought they were). Presumably, they mean chilled beers. Keep it cool but don't have one on me.

Evolutionary Leaps
It is strange to think that even in late April, Bloomberg and other US financial sites were saturated with articles foretelling GDP doom (explaining why the Obama recovery is a fake) due to extreme and exceptional cold weather in the US. But Obama's chief science adviser John Holdren was quick to tell us all that Global Warming causes Global Cooling, in the US at least, in winter months, sometimes, and that cooling has unfriendly impacts on economic growth.

Now we are safely into late June.  Obama and a shrinking band of other heads of state, with the co-opted UN system and its agencies can now tout the bad news of heat doom for the planet, just like old times!  Learn nothing. Forget nothing.

Henry Paulson, back in late-2007 made forward-looking predictions about a complex non-linear system with multiple feedback – that is the financial markets – which he said would and could only prosper with artificially lower interest rates. The actual result did not need any climate warming or cooling. There was a complete debt induced collapse and the Obama depression starting by 2009 in which we are still embedded. Side issues like Niagara Falls freezing over early this year are pure and simple statistical noise. Our problem is that global cooling is always inevitably just as plausible, and just as possible as global warming.

The longer one trend digs in, the more likely it will be replaced.

Paulson believed that unlike CO2 you can never have enough debt. The solution to too much debt is more debt, as automatic as that, like lowering CO2 levels will automatically lower future temperatures.  The exact opposite is just as plausible, due to complex feedbacks.

Exactly like periodic cyclic financial and economic crises – which are “always a surprise” and are secondly always disputed as to their exact origins – all we know for sure is that they happened. Likewise we know there were long-term glacial periods, the most recent ending about 10 000 years ago, and we have ice core samples going back in time 1 million years, but they only enable us to know that both CO2 and temperatures changed. Simply the end of a glacial period or era can release CO2, for example, but it wasn't the CO2 which caused the warming. It can or might reinforce the post-glacial temperature recovery, but we aren't sure. Human beings can no more influence the future climate than Paulson could control financial markets in 2008.

And Black Swans
The most unhealthy direct results of the elite stampede into a wildly exaggerated version of Svante Arrhenius' CO2-global warming theory of 1908 are now everywhere. Arrhenius, for starters, was glad about human CO2 emissions possibly causing global warming because he hoped that would stave off the arrival of another glacial era. His earlier versions of the same theory went as high as a 6 degC rise in world temperatures – over “1000 years or so” - but he was forced to cut back on that estimate due to justified criticism by other contemporary scientists like Anders Angstrom. Over 100 years ago.

Obsessional fear about warming results in obsessionally trying to find – or fabricate – evidence to prove it is happening. Believing that only human CO2 emissions are causing the hoped-for but also-feared warming makes all and any other theory or observation suspect. In other words, elites and the elite-controlled media have created a context where Black Swan climate change is the default. To use Nassim Taleb's definitions, this is a “tail end statistical probability event”, that is events which are of extreme-low probability and are therefore totally discounted. Talking about them is eccentric. Peer group pressure in scientific circles further seals out any countervailing hypothesis or observation.

Professor Les Woodcock the doyen of chemical thermodynamics at Manchester University UK calls this scientific idiocy the “orbital teapot syndrome”. Only CO2 can change climate and only towards further warming. Nothing else. The massive but invisible teapot orbiting close to the Earth is the cause – and you have to prove it doesn't exist!

Bloomberg's predictably hysterical, but also self-righteous 'Risky Business' report melds together all and any “supporting hypotheses” for the CO2 story line, especially “high or extreme humidity”, which is going to kill Americans along with the heat.

The IPCC, in its own furtive and dismissive way has to admit that especially oceanic cloud cover has been increasing, possibly very fast, for at least 30-40 years but has “pulled” the more sensational reports and studies that it published on the subject pre-2007. It says: “Cloud feedbacks are the primary source of inter-model differences in equilibrium climate sensitivity, with low cloud being the largest contributor”.  In other words if cloud cover rises, most extremely in nuclear winter-style, temperatures will fall and the IPCC will be out of business.

Cloud cover increase due to burning coal and ejecting dust and SO2, as well as CO2 into the atmosphere is OK for the IPCC because its is due to Demon Coal. CO2 levels will rise, causing warming, and overbalance any cooling due to rising cloud cover. The warming doom will continue.

The insane sensitivity of scientists about “climate sensitivity” or the response of climate to changes of any factor able to influence climate, was shown in 2011 by the European CERN nuclear research centre giving a special conference before publishing reports on its CLOUD experiment. The Director General of CERN actually said that the CLOUD team’s report “should be politically correct about climate change”! Do not rock the boat.

 Basically CERN wanted to be 100% sure they would on no account endorse “the Danish heresy” – Henrik Svensmark’s hypothesis developed by himself and colleagues since the late 1990s, that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by a reduction in cosmic ray density due to livelier solar activity, deflecting cosmic radiation and resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures.  Being exact about his theory, and taking only solar sunspot cycles as the main cause of a “solar shield” deflecting CR (cosmic radiation), this process would have started seriously declining, due to weaker sunspot cycles by the late-1960s or 1970s. However, CR intensity is itself highly variable or able to vary.

Exactly how CR does increase cloud cover, especially over oceans, is part of Svensmark's “heresy” and IPCC-approved scientists were quick to dismiss the theory – for example on the grounds that CR effects on water, clouds, ice particles, and airborne chemicals will be in the nanometric and related sub-millimetric domain, with little or no chemical action in the oceans, and therefore no long-term ability to reduce global warming due to CO2. Svensmark and his colleagues completely disproved this counter argument, for example the production of ammonia with either the certain, or probable increase of oceanic plankton activity in two modes. The defence mode – shielding themselves from increased CR by emitting water vapour screens, and the growth mode – increasing in numbers and density due to increased nutrients. The net final result is more oceanic cloud cover and lower temperatures. The only subject to define is the delay period for the changeover from a warming cycle to a cooling cycle.

Always The Knife Edge
We can't expect either former US Treasury secretaries or Michael Bloomberg to have the time and make the effort to wade through scientific theory concerning any kind or type of complex multivariate system or process with large numbers of dependent and independent feedbacks exposed to those uber-famous “sills and thresholds”. If they did, they would know the Earth's climate is always finely balanced but has its own protective subsystems.

Catastrophic climate change – nothing to do with human CO2 – can and does provenly happen, however. Apart from “mechanical and chemical” catastrophic change due to so-called Milankovitch cycles and asteroid or bolide impacts, and volcanic-tectonic and orogenic events, there are also GRB-gamma ray burst events.

The type of GRB event hitting our planet in the late Ordovician (about 440 million years ago) was an example. The architecture of “our” galaxy, at the time, permitted a GRB event to “fry the planet” wiping out 75%-95% of all existing life. And the event probably only took either seconds or minutes to trigger a nuclear winter-type sudden and massive fall of world temperatures that endured for thousands of years, due to climate feedbacks.

Because GRB events happen about once every 30 years in “our” galaxy we have to be thankful that galactic architecture almost but not quite always protects us from being fried. Changes of the atmosphere's chemistry of the type that human CO2 emissions are able to cause, are vastly smaller than the above examples. Increasing CO2 levels may only be due to post-glacial temperature recovery and the increase may only be partly-due to human fossil fuel burning.

Nevertheless climate is changing and will go on changing. Generating a massive doomster media and political campaign to capitalize on public fear, and use this for corporate and personal profit, and scientific kudos, is not only morally degenerate but deflects public attention to the real subject of climate change and its real causes.

By Andrew McKillop


Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2014 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

Andrew McKillop Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in