Despite my known disdain for time and price predictions, I base the plausible forecast for an October 2014 generational low in the dollar-denominated value of Silver upon the cyclical duration of a prior elongated bear market that occurred from May 1968 thru November 1971.

Monthly Silver Chart

Back then, the price of Silver declined by more than 50% over the course of 3.46 years. We have already surpassed (-62.57%) the magnitude of the previous decline amid the current bear market, and we are rapidly approaching symmetry with the previous time duration - hence, the probability of a similar cyclical low soon forthcoming.

How low can the dollar-value of Silver go before the next generational bottom is in? - From my perspective, there are three such price targets following a retest and plausible breach of the standing bear-market low at $18.18. The nearest is $16.76, and so long as the price of Silver remains beneath $25.12, the second is $15.15, and the last downside price target we have on record is $13.00.

Daily Siler Chart

Our Long-Term Trend Monitor subscribers have been hedging their physical rather successfully for nearly two-years now. (See below stats)

Long-Term Trend Monitor

Until Next Time, Trade Better / Invest Smarter

Until Next Time,

Trade Better/Invest Smarter

By Joseph Russo
Chief Publisher and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology
Email Author

Copyright © 2011 Elliott Wave Technology. All Rights Reserved.
Joseph Russo, presently the Publisher and Chief Market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991 and currently maintains active member status in the "Market Technicians Association." Joe continues to expand his body of knowledge through the MTA's accredited CMT program.

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