Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bull Market Resumes

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Sep 20, 2014 - 03:53 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The wild and volatile week we expected was nearly all to the upside. The market started the week unchanged, completed its 1.5 week pullback on Tuesday, then made new highs on Thursday and Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.5%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.3%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: NY FED, NAHB, leading indicators, WLEI, monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, CPI, housing starts, building permits and the Philly FED. Next week we get more reports on Housing, Durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP.


LONG TERM: bull market

This week the FED announced they will be ending QE 3 in October, and the ECB had a somewhat disappointing TLTRO 1. Nevertheless US and European markets reacted well to both events. The count we have been carrying on the SPX remains as posted. Primary waves I and II, of an expected five primary wave bull market, ended in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III has also divided into five Major waves, but this time Major waves 3 and 5 have subdivided.

The SPX count suggests the market is currently in Intermediate wave v of Major 5. The last uptrend of Primary III. The recent underperformance of the R2K and the NYAD suggest this uptrend is indeed a fifth wave. Should this count work out to be the market’s count, then Primary IV would begin when this uptrend ends. Primary II lasted about five months, and the market lost 22% of it value. Primary IV should be a similar 3-5 month decline, while the market loses about 15%-20% of its value. The key level to watch is SPX 1905. Should the market decline to this level at any time in the near future Primary IV is underway.

Due to the odd pattern in the DOW, and the smaller than expected recent correction in the NDX/NAZ, we are carrying another count on the DOW charts. This counts suggests that the last uptrend high and downtrend low were of one lesser degree: Minor waves 1 and 2. Not Intermediate waves iii and iv. Under this count Intermediate wave iii would be extending, just like the Intermediate wave iii during Major 3. The key level to watch for this count is SPX 1991. After this uptrend completes, and the next downtrend begins, if the market drops below SPX 1991 the extension is invalidated. If one is adept at Elliott Wave they will now realize, any future downtrend that drops below SPX 1991, or is confirmed below 1991, suggests Primary IV is underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend started at SPX 1905 in early August. After it completed five waves up to SPX 2011 in early September, we expected a pullback into the 1973 or 1956 pivot ranges. That pullback completed at the open on Tuesday when the SPX traded at 1979. When the market made new highs on Thursday we updated the count to display the first five waves up only completed Minor wave 1 of the uptrend. Minor wave 2 ended at SPX 1979. Minor wave 3 is currently underway.

This uptrend should complete five Minor waves before we should look for an uptrend high. Typically third waves get quite overbought on the daily RSI, and MACD before they begin to top. Thus far we have only observed a 40 point rally off the recent Minor 2 low at SPX 1979. During this rally the RSI has just reached overbought, and the MACD is just beginning to turn higher.

When this uptrend began we gave a minimum target of the OEW 2019 pivot, which was reached on Friday. Our expected target was the OEW 2070 pivot, which we have been expecting for over a year heading into the timeframe. We would now like to add one more pivot at SPX 2085. Since these last two pivots nearly overlap there should be significant resistance once the SPX reaches their pivot ranges. Medium term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2073 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the early August downtrend low at SPX 1905 we counted five waves up to SPX 2011. Waves 1 and 2 at 1945 and 1928. Wave 3 subdivided into five waves: 1964-1942-1995-1985-2005. Wave 4 was a simple decline to SPX 1991. Then wave 5 unfolded in a diagonal triangle: 2006-1995-2009-1998-2011. After that we got a somewhat complex zigzag. After a simple Wave A to SPX 1990, and wave B to SPX 2008, wave C got complex. Wave a of C declined: 1991-2000-1983; wave b of C rose: 1997-1986-1998; wave c of C declined: 1978-1987-1979. This pullback completed at the open on Tuesday.

From that SPX 1979 low the market rallied quite nicely to 2004 on Wednesday, and then had a series of reversals right after the FED released their FOMC statement. Since none of these swings actually registered quantitatively, we are considering them just post-FOMC noise. The market then gapped up on Thursday and Friday, hitting SPX 2019, and then had its first quantitative pullback since the low. Therefore, we are counting the entire rally from SPX 1979 to 2019 as one wave, potentially Minute i, and Friday’s pullback to 2007 as likely the major part of Minute ii. If Minute wave i is not subdividing, as we expect, the market should pullback a bit further Monday to end Minute ii. Then a rising Minute iii should be underway. Oddly, Minute i of Minor 1 was 40 points (1905-1945), and Minute i of Minor 3 appears to be 40 points (1979-2019). Short term support is at SPX 2000 and SPX 1993, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets ended the week mixed with a net gain of 0.1%.

The European markets were mostly higher gaining 0.4%.

The Commodity equity group was mostly lower losing 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but ended about even on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend losing 0.5% on the week.

Gold is also in a downtrend losing 1.2% on the week.

The USD continues its strong uptrend gaining 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Existing home sales at 10am. Tuesday: the FHFA housing index, then FED governor Powell gives at speech at 9:20am. Wednesday: New home sales. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Friday: Q2 GDP (est. +4.6%) and Consumer sentiment. Would be quite impressed if GDP is actually reported that high. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in