Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Bond Yields vs Stocks and The Fed

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015 Sep 07, 2015 - 12:54 PM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Stock-Markets

The widely anticipated US August jobs report headlined with a disappointing 173k increase in nonfarm payrolls (lowest since March). The silver lining was in the 44k upward revision of the previous two months and the decline in the unemployment rate to fresh seven-year lows of 5.1% from 5.3%. The decline 41K decrease in the labour force was too small to reduce the participation rate, which remained unchanged at 62.6%.


Average hourly earnings rose by a 5-month high of 0.3% m/m and 2.2% y/y in August. Both series are above their 3-month average, but they remain far below their 2007 highs of 0.6% m/m and 4.0% y/y. Some economists deem the rates as disappointing given the notable increases in minimum wages.

Are both the establishment and household surveys strong enough? Fed hawks require continued evidence of tightening labour markets at a time when the inflation mandate remains undershot. The evidence was obtained in the unemployment rate but not in non-farm payrolls. Renewed decline in energy prices will further drive inflation below the Fed's goal while jobs continue to offer low-paying employment.

Don't forget the Fed's other goal

Aside from the Fed's goal price stability and maximum employment, its3rd goal is to preserve financial system stability. A 10% decline in most US indices off their highs is no tragedy, neither is a 16% decline in Germany's Dax-30 or a 26% plunge in the Hang Seng Index. But tightening of financial market conditions becomes an issue when the borrowing environment becomes treacherous. We're not only talking about energy debtors, but all-sector high yield debt, which is at its worst measure since 2011 when using 10-year junk spread.

Asian corporate spread is also on the rise. After reaching 8-month highs back in January, Asian spreads are back up near 7-month highs. USD-based debt gone turned highly expensive is part of the problem. Relying on demand from a slowing China is another.

Fed's 1998 Backtrack

For those who claim the Fed is and should be focused on domestic issues and ignore China, think again. In spring 1998, the Fed was mulling a rate hike as US GDP growth was at 14-year high s and CPI was stabilizing. But as the 1997 emerging market route spiralled into a crisis from Brazil to Russia and Hong Kong in 1998, the Fed was forced to cut rates in Sep, Oct and Nov of that year. The collapse of LTCM also helped. Today, US growth remains subpar and the exogenous risks are considerable.

SPX and SPX?10-Year Yield Ratio Chart

Back in the US, financial market stability is not exactly an ocean of calmness. But the rise in high-yield spreads and escalation in the VIX will grow more notable.

Finally, the uncharacteristically high level of US 10-year yields relative to the recent declines in US equity indices raises the following question: "If China were not selling treasuries to prevent CNY declines, then how low could yields be?" And if stocks continue to plummet (expect another 7% from today's close in US indices), then the relative relationship between indices and yields should reveal less tightening.

The above chart highlights the declining SPX/Yields ratio, suggesting that it's a matter of time before yields catch-down with stocks, regardless of whether the Fed raises rates or not. Earlier in the year, stocks were seen as too high relative to yields. Things have changed, but this too, will be temporary.

For more frequent FX & Commodity calls & analysis, follow me on Twitter Twitter.com/alaidi

By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com

Ashraf Laidi CEO of Intermarket Strategy and is the author of "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets" Wiley Trading.

This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Copyright © 2015 Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in