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Waiting On The Fed... What The Stock Market Likely Wants...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Sep 12, 2015 - 04:34 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market seems to have found some stability after the big push lower that saw the market flash crash one day, and even though it recovered some, it saw some real technical damage, once the heavy selling episode was over. We moved from one long-term base into a new base that's actually larger than the one that saw us go nowhere for eight months.


Scary to think about how long we can go basically nowhere should this play out the same way. We can hope that won't be the case, but sometimes we see markets do things that seem impossible, but behind that seemingly impossible event is a real plan. The plan to rid the monthly charts of their very poor technical's that still exist. The market did a great job over the past few months of removing froth completely from the equation. At a minus-2.2 reading we see froth has totally gone away.

No one can say we're optimistic any longer. It took only a few months to turn extreme froth in to extreme fear. Make no mistake about it, we are experiencing extreme fear. Extreme levels of fear can stop a market from falling further. That has to be given some merit. While things look bad, we do have fear moving high quite quickly, so it is possible we have seen the lows for a while. No guarantee whatsoever, but minus 2.2 is unusual. We had a minus-20 reading years ago, but that was when the banking system was melting down. We're nowhere near that type of situation here. So, to sum it up. Fear is at extremes, which is bullish. Monthly charts are terrible, which is bearish. Fundamentals are deteriorating, which is bearish, but rates are extremely bullish. Quite the tug of war, but, for now, we are probably in a calmer-period short term, until the fed.... Well.... More on that coming up. All of this equates to a market trading mindlessly in a bear flag. No fun. Sometimes reality really isn't much fun.

Fed Yellen is out next week. It seems to me that everyone knows they will be hesitant to raise rates. My thinking is the market wants clarity. It would probably be bullish, if they would raise rates and tell everyone they will only raise rates based on fundamentals. Even then the process would be very slow. If the market can get this unknown out of the way, and recognize that it's nothing from nothing, which I believe it ultimately would, I think the market would sell for a couple of minutes, and then move higher to some degree. Again, rid the uncertainty. Let everyone know it won't be a full rate-hike cycle, and all would be well. The Fed, I believe, needs to get the dirty deed done. I actually believe the market will like it better if they do rather than if they don't. I really have no clue what they'll do, but that's what I'm thinking. Get it out there. Put it to bed and let the market deal with it. The wording is key, and can be done without hurting the market.

When bull markets end the process can be a very long one. Thus far we have not seen any big money distributing off recent tops. That's important. It doesn't have to have distribution to end a bull market, but more often than not it does. Also when bull markets end we usually have many tests back up to the old highs, and sometimes you can even temporarily make new highs. Bull markets just don't end in a straight line down, such as we've seen, so it's quite possible we will see an attempt back up to around the old highs at some point in the near future, even if that takes some months to occur. Here's the big picture problem. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts would all have negative divergences on any new highs. The daily one would be significant, but the weekly and monthly ones would be gargantuan in nature.

When all-time frames combine for negative divergences at new highs, it's pretty much the kiss of death for equities. The biggest headache being the size of those nasty divergences that would form. Just huge. So, while it's possible, if not likely, we'll make many tests up over time, but the bull market is likely on its very last leg. We can hope to see 2200, or so, and that's definitely no guarantee, but much beyond that will be difficult, and once those divergences kick in that would probably be the end of the bull market. It's my belief that most of the good times from this long-running bull are over. We can hope for a few more tests back up, and we should get some, but expecting this to go on and on is quite unlikely. Not impossible, but definitely unlikely. We shall see what the market offers up, but I feel the end is nearing and things probably won't be too much fun for some time to come. Again, let's hope for some decent upside first.

The bear flag runs from 1867 to 1993. 126 points, which are more than annoying, but let's go over those weekly charts. You can see that they have unwound quite a bit. The monthly charts are slower, but at least those weekly charts are rocking down on their oscillators. This reality plus fear tells me we should eventually try higher as I've just mentioned. That doesn't mean right away, but sooner than later. I'm thinking 1867 should hold, but we'll see. If we can eventually clear 1993, we should try a full, back test of the breakdown at 2040. That would coincide again, with testing the top etc. It's good to see how far those weekly charts have unwound, so hopefully the combination of those index charts plus fear will give us at some point soon the next move higher. If 1867 goes away something more bearish is taking place, but we'll deal with that if it occurs before 1993 gets taken out. One day at a time in a very difficult environment. Lots of cash is best. Do what feels right to you, of course.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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