Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Primary IV Still, or Primary V Underway?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 03, 2015 - 09:06 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro


The week started at SPX 1931. After a gap down opening on Monday the market came within five points of retesting its August SPX 1867 low on Tuesday. Then the market gapped up Wednesday and Thursday hitting SPX 1927. On Friday the market gapped down to SPX 1894, then made a strong recovery and ended the week at 1951. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.00%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%, and the DJ World index gained 0.70%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: the PCE, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the ADP index, construction spending and the WLEI. On the downtick: pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, factory orders, GDPn, monthly payrolls, plus weekly claims rose. Next week we get reports on the FOMC minutes and ISM services.

LONG TERM: bull market

Last weekend we discussed three potential market scenarios for the next several weeks/months. First: Primary IV ends in September. Second: Primary IV ended in August. Third: Primary IV will end in a few months. Details are in last weekend’s update.

This week the market completed five waves down from SPX 2021. However, the decline ended five points short of the August SPX 1867 low. When the market confirmed an uptrend shortly thereafter scenario #1 was eliminated. The uptrend confirmation suggested Primary IV had ended in August at SPX 1867. We are not completely convinced of this as the rally off the September SPX 1872 low has been kind of choppy. Therefore both scenarios remain in play until either the uptrend starts impulsing in earnest, or the choppiness continues.

Longer term we are still tracking this bull market as a five Primary wave Cycle wave [1]. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III completed in mid-2015. Whether or not Primary IV has already completed, we are expecting Primary V and all time new highs before the bull market ends. The price targets posted on the weekly chart are relative to a SPX 1867 Primary IV low.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The market confirmed an uptrend this week about 2% off the recent SPX 1872 low. This suggests that the August SPX 1867 low ended Primary IV, and Primary V has been underway since then. If you review the hourly chart, in the short term section, you will see a potential wave count for that scenario: Major 1 SPX 1993, Major 2 SPX 1872 (an irregular zigzag). This suggests that Major wave 3 is underway.

This is kind of wave activity is an odd beginning to an uptrend, as it looks quite choppy. With this in mind, we have reason to believe a more complex Primary IV is still possible. The daily chart above displays that possibility, as we have updated the count to display a Major wave A at SPX 1867, and Major wave B underway. Should this be correct we would expect the entire Primary IV correction to take about six months and form a double three: zigzag-flat. The downside targets would still be between the OEW 1828 and 1869 pivots. Medium term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.


If we count Primary IV ending in August at SPX 1867, we have the beginning of Primary V posted on the hourly chart below. Off the recent SPX 1872 low we now have a similar type of irregular pattern as Major waves 1 and 2. We have a rally to SPX 1917 for the first wave, then an irregular second wave: 1897-1927-1894. Another odd pattern, or just more choppy market activity. The rally off Friday’s SPX 1894 low was quite impressive as the market hit 1951 at the close. Best rally in a couple of weeks. However, we would have preferred seeing a clear five waves up before any sizeable correction. Not this choppy activity.

Under the extending Primary IV scenario we can see the current rally ending at either the 1956 or 1973 pivot ranges. Then another sizeable pullback. Should the market clear the 2019 pivot without any sizeable pullbacks, then Primary V is probably underway. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought.


The Asian markets were quite mixed on the week and ended flat.

The European markets were also mixed but lost 0.8%.

The Commodity equity group were also mixed but gained 0.6%.

The DJ world index has not confirmed an uptrend yet but gained 0.7% on the week.


Last week’s odd situation all ended positive.

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.2% on the week.

Crude is also in an uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Gold is in an uptrend too but lost 0.8%.

The USD is also in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.


Monday: ISM services at 10am. Tuesday: the Trade deficit. Wednesday: Consumer credit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the FOMC minutes. Friday: Export/Import prices and Wholesale inventories. Best to your weekend and week!


After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2015 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in