Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF - 26th Oct 21
Food Prices & Farm Inputs Getting Hard to Stomach - 26th Oct 21
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? - 26th Oct 21
Dave Antrobus Welcomes Caribou to Award-Winning Group Inc & Co - 26th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend - 26th Oct 21
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why The Super Bearish Gold and Silver COTs Portend a Plunging Euro...

Currencies / Euro Nov 01, 2015 - 07:31 PM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Currencies

It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying "Alimentary, my dear Watson". More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking "Elementary, my dear Watson". Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.

Today we are going make light of what to other analysts may be abstruse and possibly baffling, by "joining the dots" to demonstrate the linear connection between an extremely bearish silver COT and an imminent crashing euro, so that by the conclusion of this article, you, dear reader, will have a clear understanding of what is set to unfold, and will be able to explain to other confused souls that it really is elementary.


We will start by looking immediately at our most important piece of evidence, the latest silver COT, which is very bearish indeed, because the Commercials now have their biggest short position since 2008. This makes a big drop in silver very likely soon, and it is expected to make new lows, probably heading to the $10 area. Doubt that this is true? – then look at what happened to silver over the past year on its 1-year chart placed directly below the COT chart, when the Commercials had a high short position – I rest my case.

Silver CoT

Silver 1-Year Chart

Next we look at gold’s latest COT, with its 1-year chart placed directly below for comparison. It’s similar, although not so extreme as silver, but the conclusion is the same.

Gold CoT

Gold 1-Year Chart

So, gold and silver are going to drop a lot – what does that mean for the dollar? – it means the dollar is going to rally, and rally a lot, and on its 3-year chart we can see that it is in position to do just that. Following its dramatic rally from July of last year to March of this year, the dollar index has been stuck in a large triangular trading range, which could be either a consolidation pattern or a top. It has already started to break out upside from this pattern on the Fed meeting this past week, and it wouldn’t take much to swing its moving averages into bullish alignment. If it succeeds in breaking out upside from this pattern and following through, it is likely to mount an advance of similar magnitude to the one preceding the consolidation pattern, which means it will target the 114 – 116 area, a big move indeed.

US Dollar 3-Year Chart

COTs for the US dollar are in middling ground, but have certainly eased enough to permit a big advance, as shown by the latest Hedgers chart, which is a form of COT chart...

US Dollar Hedgers Position

If the Fed starts an interest rate rise cycle, it would of course bolster the dollar, but as we know there is precious little scope for them to do so without triggering an economic cataclysm, because of the frightening levels of debt that now exist. So what else could cause the dollar index to rise? the euro, that’s what. Don’t forget that the dollar index is some 57% composed of the euro, and with Europe threatening to fall to bits, crippled as it is by ruinous debts and with political differences between member states being aggravated by differences over how to handle the massive influx of migrants, the euro is really on the ropes and looks like it is starting another major downleg on its road to eventual oblivion. With regards to the migrant crisis, Europe is reaping what it has sown, by joining forces as an obsequious sidekick with the US in its destabilizing rampage around the Mid-East. It’s alright for the US, the migrant’s rubber boats can’t make it across the Atlantic, but they sure can make the 20 km crossing from Bodrum to Kos.

Let’s look at the latest euro chart now. As we just saw, the dollar index is starting to break out upside to start another major upleg, so we can expect to see the opposite occurring in the euro, a major downleg just starting, and that is exactly what we do see. With Europe blighted by huge debts, Germany weakening rapidly as its export markets shrink, its reputation tarnished by the VW scandal, and beset by hordes of immigrants with their hands out so that it looks set to fall to the ground, a constitutional crisis looms for the EU, especially if Britain votes to leave, and the euro is threatened with extinction, so it is not hard to see why the next downleg in the euro could easily be as bad as the one from the Summer of 2014 through the Spring of this year, and if it is, we are looking at the euro dropping to 80 or lower.

Euro 3-Year Chart

If the euro fell this far it means that we will see another huge ramp in the dollar index, which would be expected to trigger a big drop in both gold and silver to new lows. Now you should be able to grasp why the Commercials are piling on the gold and silver shorts – it’s elementary, my dear reader.

If a big ramp in the dollar ensues it is logical to suppose that many other commodities, apart from gold and silver, will get whacked down again. So let’s take a look at copper and its COT as we would expect this to get hit too. As we can see on the latest COT chart, the Commercials have been "jumping ship" in recent weeks, scaling down their long positions to a very low level. The last time this happened, back in May, a severe downtrend followed as we can see on copper’s 1-year chart, shown directly below the COT chart.

Copper CoT

Copper 1-Year Chart

On clivemaund.com we are not going to stand around staring blankly as gold and silver drop away to new lows. This is an opportunity to make big gains on the short side in the PM sector, and we will be looking at a range of vehicles which we can use to do just that, some of which we have already bought over the last week or two.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2015 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in