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Stock Market Of Nothing....What Is It Waiting On?.... Sentiment Bullish...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Dec 29, 2015 - 01:05 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


We've all seen markets that seem to go nowhere day after day. In fact, month after month, but this market is really tough on the nerves and one's emotions. We have spent a year at the flat line, but it's not just that it's flat, it's how it's going about its business. There are just no moves that sustain themselves. It would be fun if we could ramp up and ramp down, but we do neither for the most part. Some bigger moves for sure along the way, but in reality very few of them thus there's that word we all hate again, but there's no CONVICTION. Neither side is showing the ability to establish itself. No accumulation off bottoms. No distribution off tops. Nothing from nothing.

Look at today's action. A gap down that doesn't fill, but hammers nicely. Gives you some hope, but with the gap open, even just a little bit, it makes life tougher. It's almost as if the market is chasing everyone away. It doesn't want folks involved. So while you do try to participate you want to be sure you don't go overboard. It's hard to fight your emotions because you want to fight them. You want a lot of action, but this market is telling you not to do that. It's like a predator is waiting for you to do something you know you shouldn't do, but it knows in time you will. Try not to be that person. Stay involved, but do so appropriately. A very difficult environment is showing no signs of letting up any time soon. Be smart and adjust to what you're seeing. There will be easier times on your soul.

There is one shining light in all this market to nowhere stuff if you're a bull. It's not very difficult to see, based on volume or the lack thereof, that the bulls are getting very frustrated, so we're seeing very low levels on the bull-bear spread. I don't think this reality should be looked upon without the great interest it deserves. Having the spread at or below 10% is a really good thing to see. It shows little faith in the market overall and tends to keep large bear markets away. It doesn't mean we can't fall decently, because we can, but I think, even in the present moment, it's having an effect on things. The bears are ramping up. The bulls are ramping down. The combination tells us it won't be easy to put the hammer down on the bulls, even if we fall 3-5%. Any move lower will have us below zero on the spread, and to that, I say to the bears, good luck creating a bear market for an extended period with those types of numbers. Correction, for sure, but a longer-term bear won't be easy for now. Just trying to spread a little light on what all of this frustration is doing in a positive way. It's definitely helping underneath the surface.

So, in the end, we watch to make sure those exponential moving averages can hold. 2043 is a very important level for the S&P 500, but there are levels below that matter a lot as well, and ultimately it is about 1993. A close below 1993 with some volume, and the show is over for the bulls for the short- to medium-term. For now, if we can hold above 2043 we have a shot to move higher, and hopefully create our first higher high in some months. That would be very helpful to the bullish, short-term case. A day at a time in a very difficult environment.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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