Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Primary Bear Market Trend and Crude Oils Unsustainable Advance

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Jul 26, 2008 - 06:32 PM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn late June I posted an article here explaining that Crude Oil was in an unsustainable parabolic spike. Then, on July 15th I had a short-term sell signal that immediately evolved into a sell signal of intermediate degree. The question now is whether or not this intermediate-term sell signal further evolves into marking an even longer-term top, or if it is a mere correction in the path of an even longer-term advance. Monitoring the Cycle Turn Indicator at the various levels will be key at answering this question.


Below is a long-term chart of crude oil showing the 1,322 percent advance that occurred from the 1998 low, at 10.35, into the recent high at 147.27. Since the July 11 th high, crude oil dropped 23.77 into the most recent low. This decline in and of itself does not necessarily mean that crude oil has also made a longer-term top. But, given the nature of the recent parabolic spike along with some of the other statistical factors that I'm watching, this is indeed a window of opportunity. The key item for me at this point is whether or not this intermediate-term decline is successful enough to also turn my monthly Cycle Turn Indicator negative. Also, the other key element is whether or not this occurs within the statistical window surrounding the entire commodity complex that I have been watching and telling my subscribers about for months now.


Since we are on commodities, I next want to briefly discuss gold. In doing so I am also going to show you how my Trend and Cycle Turn Indicators can be used to help identify primary and counter-trend moves. The chart below is a weekly chart of gold, which I use for my intermediate-term work. I have also included both my intermediate-term Trend Indicator as well as my Cycle Turn Indicator . If we begin at the low last August, note that both the Trend and the Cycle Turn Indicator were negative as that low was made. Then, the first week in September both indicators turned up as gold began to climb out of the cycle low that was associated with that price low. With the Trend Indicator positive, this told us that the longer-term trend had turned back up. As price continued to move up, note that the Trend Indicator remained positive all the way up into the March high capturing that entire advance.

When the Cycle Turn Indicator turned down at various points along the way it was signaling counter-trend cyclical moves within the context of the longer-term up trend. Then, when the Cycle Turn Indicator turned back up another buying opportunity was confirmed. To say this another way, the fact that the Tend Indicator remained positive during the downturns, seen by the Cycle Turn Indicator , told us that these dips were buying opportunities.

 


But, once the Trend Indicator rolled over below its trigger line in late March it told us that the trend at this level had turned down. This also told us that as long as the Trend Indicator remained negative that any rally was to be considered a counter-trend move. The week of July 18 th the Trend Indicator came within a hair of crossing back above its trigger line. However, this crossover never quite materialized and this past week the weekly Cycle Turn Indicator turned negative. As a result, the current picture suggests that the May to July rally was a counter-trend affair at this level. Until the Trend Indicator turns back up, the trend at this level remains negative and any bounce must still be considered a counter-trend move.

As for equities, from a Dow theory perspective we still have a mixed bag. The longer-term primary bearish trend change that was confirmed on November 21, 2007 remains intact. This confirmation occurred when the blue horizontal line on the chart below was jointly violated by both averages. Since that violation both an upside and a downside Dow theory non-confirmation has evolved. The upside non-confirmation occurred when the Transports moved above their previous secondary high point and ultimately into all time new highs in June, but with the Industrials failing to better their previous secondary high point this upside non-confirmation was born. To clarify, this upside non-confirmation is marked in red and has a bearish bias that until corrected will remain intact.

 


At the same time, we also still have a downside non-confirmation, which is noted in green. This downside non-confirmation occurred when the Industrials moved below their previous secondary low point, while the Transports held above their corresponding secondary low. Downside non-confirmations are indicative of an upside reversal, which is now underway.

To date, the November 21st bearish primary trend change remains intact and takes precedence over everything else. The upside non-confirmation is also bearish. But, the downside non-confirmation was last to occur and given the fact that non-confirmations tend to indicate trend reversals we must also respect this fact as well. At present, price is advancing out of what I believe to be a secondary low point. From a Dow theory perspective, the key is whether or not this advance is sufficient enough to invalidate the existing primary bearish trend. From a cyclical perspective, which has nothing to do with Dow theory, the key is the cyclical structure of the market and the Cycle Turn Indicator at the intermediate and longer-term levels.

I have begun doing free Friday market commentary that is available at www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm so please begin joining me there. Should you be interested in more in depth analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator, which has done a fabulous job, on stock market, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, and more, those details are available in the research letter and short-term updates. In the June research letter I specifically covered commodities in great details and outline the parameters and benchmarks for the coming months. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the Dow theory, and very detailed statistical based analysis plus updates 3 times a week.

By Tim Wood
Cyclesman.com

© 2008 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved
Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in