Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
How to Capitalise on the Robots - 20th June 24
Bitcoin, Gold, and Copper Paint a Coherent Picture - 20th June 24
Why a Dow Stock Market Peak Will Boost Silver - 20th June 24
QI Group: Leading With Integrity and Impactful Initiatives - 20th June 24
Tesla Robo Taxis are Coming THIS YEAR! - 16th June 24
Will NVDA Crash the Market? - 16th June 24
Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? - 16th June 24
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles - 16th June 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why Stock Market Analysts Will be Wrong About 2017

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Feb 03, 2017 - 07:23 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Stock-Markets

We're already a month into New Year and there has been an ample amount of sentiment data to suggest that investors, both retail and institutional, aren't terribly enthusiastic on the stock market outlook for 2017. Granted that institutional analysts are still bullish, as per usual, but in the round table type opinion polls I've seen they've apparently lowered their expectations. Everyone seems to be preparing for a somewhat disappointing year based largely on the assumption that after eight years of a bull market, surely another major rally is out of the question.


The decennial rhythm we discussed in an earlier commentary argues against these diminished expectations. Indeed, seventh year of the decade tends to be one of unusual volatility for stock prices. While it's true crashes, corrections and panics are quite common in the seventh year (e.g. September 1987, October 1997, February/August 2007), the seventh year also sees a pronounced tendency for sustained rallies in the first seven months of the year. Accordingly, 2017 could be a year filled with tremendous opportunity for making money in the stock market - in both directions.

For 2017, the 10-year rhythm equates to 2007. As you recall, 2007 was a momentous year characterized at once by great volatility alternating between great fear and euphoria. It was the year that saw the last major stock market top and also the onset of the credit tsunami which overwhelmed the market the following year. If the decennial pattern holds true, 2017 should witness both a meaningful rally to new all-time highs as well as a decline of potentially major proportions.  In short, it could turn out to be a big year for the bulls as well as the bears.

As for the idea that the bull market is getting "long in the tooth" and has therefore exhausted its upside potential, consider that the previous two years could well be characterized as a stealth bear market. The major large cap indices essentially went nowhere in 2015-2016 while the Russell Small Cap Index (RUT) experienced a 25% decline. That's a bear market by anyone's definition.

Retail investors have also been quite pessimistic since 2015 in the overall scheme of things. From the start of 2015 up until the election, more than $200 billion was pulled out of U.S. equity funds and ETFs, while a bit more than that was funneled into bond funds and ETFs. That two-year stretch of risk aversion, however, is apparently ending as investors have gradually embraced more risk tolerance since the election. Since the election nearly $46 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds, while nearly $3 billion has left bond funds, according to money flow statistics.

The evidence strongly suggests that the past two years served the purpose of clearing out the excesses generated by the long-term bull market which began in 2009. In other words, the market is rested and ready to resume its potential as we head further into 2017.

Another concern among investors is that the rise in interest rates since last year could stifle the stock market's upside potential. While it's true that sustained periods or rising Treasury yields have often proved a hindrance to higher stock prices, there is an exception to that rule. According to LPL Research, there have been 11 periods of rising interest rates (at least a 1% rise in the 10-year Treasury note) since 1996, each lasting an average of six months. During those times, the S&P 500 rose an average of 5.44%, thus proving that in the early stages of rising interest rates stocks and yields often rise simultaneously.

We're at a point in the long-wave credit cycle where interest rates are ready to rise after being depressed for years. According to K-Wave theory, after the 60-year economic cycle bottomed in 2014 we should see a gradual increase in rates as the economy recovers its former vigor. Of course this process will take a long time to complete - possibly decades - but we're likely at a point in the newly formed 60-year cycle where even a temporarily sharp run-up in rates won't damage the economy or even necessarily hinder the stock market.  In fact, rising rates at this point indicates increasing demand for credit and a corresponding improvement in the economy.

Following is a 10-year chart of the 10-year Treasury Yield Index (TNX). The double-bottom in the interest rate is clearly visible between the years 2012 and 2016. I believe this marks the long-term low in interest rates for the previous long-term cycle.

TNX Weekly Chart

As long as rates don't rise too high, too fast it's very possible that stock prices will rise along with Treasury yields without much interference along the way. An added bonus to the rally in T-bond yields is that bond prices are now in a downward trend. This should serve to discourage investors who piled heavily into the bond market in the last few years. It should also cause them to look more closely at stocks as a long-term investment once again, especially as painful memories from the 2008 crash gradually wear off. The underperformance of corporate debt vis-à-vis equities should also encourage investors to take a second look at the stock market. Below is the 1-year graph of the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index.

Dow Corporate Bond Index

The bottom line is that 2017 should see an increase in business activity across the board as the U.S. returns to a normal business cycle after being artificially suppressed by the actions of central banks for years. Moreover, the decennial rhythm suggests that except for a period of potential weakness in the August-October time frame, year 2017 will likely prove to be a memorable one especially from the standpoint of the upside potential in both the equity market and the U.S. economy.

Mastering Moving Averages

The moving average is one of the most versatile of all trading tools and should be a part of every investor's arsenal. Far more than a simple trend line, it's also a dynamic momentum indicator as well as a means of identifying support and resistance across variable time frames. It can also be used in place of an overbought/oversold oscillator when used in relationship to the price of the stock or ETF you're trading in.

In my latest book, Mastering Moving Averages, I remove the mystique behind stock and ETF trading and reveal a simple and reliable system that allows retail traders to profit from both up and down moves in the market. The trading techniques discussed in the book have been carefully calibrated to match today's fast-moving and sometimes volatile market environment. If you're interested in moving average trading techniques, you'll want to read this book.

Order today and receive an autographed copy along with a copy of the book, The Best Strategies for Momentum Traders. Your order also includes a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Momentum Strategies Report newsletter: http://www.clifdroke.com/books/masteringma.html

By Clif Droke

www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in