Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21
Last Chance to GET FREE Money Crypto Mining with Your Desktop PC - 2nd May 21
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? - 2nd May 21
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! - 2nd May 21
Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) - 2nd May 21
What Are The Requirements For Applying For A Payday Loan Online? - 2nd May 21
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part1 - 1st May 21
INDIA COVID APOCALYPSE - 1st May 21
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? - 1st May 21
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes - 1st May 21
Stock Market Correction Time Window - 30th Apr 21
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" - 30th Apr 21
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents - 30th Apr 21
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? - 30th Apr 21
King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments! - 29th Apr 21
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase - 29th Apr 21
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher - 29th Apr 21
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues - 29th Apr 21
Get Ready for the Fourth U.S. Central Bank - 29th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? - 29th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge - 28th Apr 21
AMD Ryzen Overclocking Guide - 5900x, 5950x, 5600x PPT, TDC, EDC, How to Best Settings Beyond PBO - 28th Apr 21
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator - 28th Apr 21
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold - 28th Apr 21
Is The Covaids Insanity Actually Getting Worse? - 28th Apr 21
Dogecoin to the Moon! The Signs are Everywhere, but few will Heed them - 28th Apr 21
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution - 28th Apr 21
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited - 28th Apr 21
6 Challenges Contract Managers Face When Handling Contractual Agreements - 28th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Grand Super Cycle Overview While SPX Correction Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Apr 23, 2017 - 04:14 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started this gap filled week at SPX 2329. A gap up opening Monday took the SPX to 2349. Then after a gap down opening on Tuesday the market found support at SPX 2335. A gap up opening on Wednesday took the SPX to 2353, which was sold off into 2335 again. On Thursday another gap up opening took the market to SPX 2361. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2349 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.75%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, the WLEI, the NAHB, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, leading indicators and existing home sales. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI, durable goods and housing. Best to your week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

This week let’s look at the big picture. The very big picture. While published data on the US stock market only began in the year 1885, we have been able to piece together, using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles, how the US market would have looked from the early 1700’s. As an emerging growth economy the US would have not looked anything like the European markets that do have stock market data going back that far. That data was not considered.

From around the year 1700 to 1929 the US experienced a 200+ year grand super cycle bull market GSC 1. The 1929-1932 crash, when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value, ended GSC 2. While short in time the crash made up for it in price damage. A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low.

Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately: SC1 1700-1770, SC2 1770-1776, SC3 1776-1850, SC4 1850-1857, and SC5 1857-1929. Within the current GSC 3 there have been two completed super cycles, with the third underway: SC1 1932-2007, SC2 2007-2009, SC3 2009-xxxx. Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years, this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.

Within each super cycle bull market there are five Cycle waves. SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows: C1 1932-1937, C2 1937-1942, C3 1942-1973, C4 1973-1974 and C5 1974-2007. Notice the Cycle wave bull markets can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years. Also note, no matter the wave degree the bear markets are always much shorter in time than the bull markets. Currently the US stock market is in Cycle wave 1, from the 2009 low, of SC1. Which brings us up to the present.

Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. During this C1 bull market: P1 2009-2015, P2 2015-2016, and P3 currently underway. Thus far, from the 2016 low, we have Int. waves i and ii Apr-Jun 2016, Minor waves 1 and 2 Aug-Nov 2016, and Minor 3 completed in March, with Minor 4 underway now. When Minor 4 concludes Minor 5 should take the market to new highs to complete Int. iii. Then after an Int. iv correction, Int. v would only complete Major wave 1 of Primary III. As you can observe, Primary III should last quite a while as Major waves 1-2-3-4-5 unfold. For now we looking for a Major wave 1 high in one-three years around SPX 3000+.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

The Minor wave 3 uptrend travelled from SPX 2084-2401 during Nov-Mar. The uptrend was the longest and strongest of the three impulsive uptrends in this bull market. After the March high the market entered a Minor 4 correction. Thus far it has lasted nearly two months and has only corrected 3.3%. Quite a small correction even for this bull market. With the two previous corrections declining 5.6% and 5.0% this one probably has more downside to go.

We have been labeling this downtrend from SPX 2401 as three Minute waves: 2322-2379-2329 so far. With Minute C underway we have anticipated downtrend support in the SPX 2290’s, and the OEW 2286 to 2270 pivot ranges. We are also waiting for the NDX/NAZ to confirm downtrends. They have dipped but continue to remain near their highs. A selloff in this sector should be all that is required to put in a downtrend low across the board. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The market has been quite choppy, with a downward bias, since the SPX topped at 2401 in early March. After the Minor wave 4 downtrend was confirmed a week ago, the short term pattern within the downtrend was upgraded. Within this Minute a-b-c pattern we have noticed this week some symmetry.

Minute ‘a’ divided into three waves: 2355-2390-2322. Minute ‘b’ was also three waves reaching a 2379 high. Minute ‘c’ now looks like three waves as well: 2329-2361-underway. When we examine the three wave decline of ‘a’ in points: 46-35-68. The three wave decline of ‘c’ in points is thus far: 49-32-xx. Notice the smaller a and b, of Minute waves ‘a’ and ‘c’ are quite similar. Also similar is the time element in days: 6-4-8 and 6-4-x. Should the market continue to maintain this symmetry, the SPX should bottom in the 2290’s around May 2nd. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week below neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower for a net 0.8% loss.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.7%.

The DJ World index gained 0.6%, as did the NYSE.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 6.7%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Case-Shiller, new home sales and consumer confidence. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods and pending home sales. Friday: Q1 GDP (est. 1.0%), the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in