Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

DOW Joins the Stock Market New All-time Highs Party

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Jun 04, 2017 - 10:57 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started at SPX 2416. After a pullback to SPX 2404 by Wednesday morning the market rallied to all-time highs on Thursday/Friday, hitting SPX 2440. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.55%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, the Chicago PMI, pending home sales, construction spending, monthly payrolls, the WLEI, the Q2 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the CPI, Case-Shiller, the ADP, ISM manufacturing, plus the unemployment rate declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by ISM services and factory orders.


LONG TERM: uptrend

After breaking out of the SPX 2400 area late last week, the bull market headed into unchartered territory this week. Even the DOW joined the party and made all-time new highs. With the TRAN in an uptrend, it looks like the cyclicals are now joining the techs as they continue to extend higher in a seven month uptrend.

The bull market count remains unchanged. A Primary II low in February 2016. Intermediate waves i and ii, of Major 1, of Primary III, completed in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Intermediate iii, completed in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. And Minor wave 5 is currently underway. When Minor 5 concludes, Intermediate iii will also conclude, then Intermediate wave iv could generate the biggest correction of this bull market thus far. The largest correction of this bull market, thus far, have been about 120 points.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 5 uptrend began in mid-April with a failed flat (sign of strength) at SPX 2329. Thus far it has completed Minute i at SPX 2406, Minute wave ii at SPX 2353, and Minute wave iii is currently underway. Minute i subdivided into five waves on one timeframe, and nine waves on a lesser timeframe. Minute iii has not subdivided at all on one timeframe, and displays three waves on the lesser timeframe.

Minute iii has already surpassed the length of Minute i (87 pts. v 77 pts.). Should Minute iii subdivide like Minute i, this uptrend has a long way to go. This does not have to occur, but it could. Let’s just take it one pivot at a time and see what the short term wave structure looks like as we approach each pivot. Medium term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots.

SHORT TERM

On the hourly chart we labeled five Micro waves (orange) during Minute wave i. These Micro waves were the subdivisions of the larger timeframe we use to track the short term waves. Since there have not been any subdivisions during Minute iii, on this timeframe, we have not offered any labeling yet.

We did note earlier, however, there has been one subdivision (three waves) on the shortest timeframe, and we tracking that for now. Applying this subdivision we have: wave one (2353-2419), a wave two pullback, then wave three underway (2404-2440). The third wave will equal the first wave at SPX 2470. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week and gained 0.8%.

Europe was quite mixed and gained 0.1%.

The DJ World index gained 1.1%, and the NYSE gained 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds confirmed an uptrend and gained 0.6%.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 4.3%.

Gold confirmed an uptrend and gained 1.0%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: ISM services and factory orders at 10am. Wednesday: consumer credit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims. Friday: wholesale inventories.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in