Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21
Why Tether USDT, Stable Scam Coins Could COLLAPSE the Crypto Markets - Black Swan 2021 - 6th Jun 21
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold - 6th Jun 21
Apple (AAPL) Summer Correction Stock Trend Analysis - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out - 5th Jun 21
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold - 5th Jun 21
Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Buying Levels Price Targets - 4th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Can Stock Market Mood Analysis Also Predict Social Turbulence?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Oct 05, 2017 - 08:19 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

Many of you have noted through the years that you simply do not understand how our analysis methodology works. Yes, it can be more complex than most other forms of analysis, but it is also often more reliable and accurate in identifying targets and trends. As an example, where we have used it at the end of 2015 to call for a drop in the market from the 2100 region down to the 1800 region, to set up a rally to the 2500 region. Yet, many still view it as a form of “voodoo.”


But, what we are doing is attempting to analyze market sentiment, as presented by the manner in which the way the stock market acts. And, the benefits of understanding the broader trend utilizing this methodology has greater implications than simple profitability through trading and investing.

You see, studies have been done about when the overall mood of society is ripe for war or peace. It does not necessarily mean that a large-scale war will certainly break out, but it does give you warning that the environment is one in which war has become more likely. Remember, we are unable to tell the future, but are able to understand what the implications of social mood may mean to society as a whole.

Along those lines, over the last few years, I have gotten to know Dr. Cari Bourette of MarketMood.net. Dr. Bourette has been studying the overall impact of market mood upon society and the stock market for many years. In fact, she has built an algorithm which is able to identify not only turning points in the markets based upon this algorithm, but also to identify potential effects of mood upon society.

Eerily, her weekend update posted this past Saturday morning (September 30) was entitled “Terrorist Alert Through October 12, 2017.” Moreover, her expectation was that an attack can occur near Denver, Colorado:

“While this does not imply that we are certain that a terrorist attack will occur in the Denver area by October 12, it does mean that during a period where increased terrorist activity is likely, that the highest probability for such an event to occur within the U.S. is near Denver, Colorado.”

We all know what happened in Las Vegas the very next day, a sickening, horrific attack.

Dr. Bourette's mood forecasts are based on an analysis Internet search trends, using research spanning two decades. To understand more about how she arrived at her uncanny forecast last Saturday, I'll point you to her article here.

Whether or not the tragedy in Las Vegas was what her analysis was pointing to -- and let's hope and pray that there is nothing more -- it does raise the question of whether analyzing social mood can help us predict more than just the stock market. As further study is done into the effect of mass sentiment, I think there are many more aspects of life for which this study can prepare us.

As for how social mood and sentiment analysis can produce relatively accurate predictions regarding the stock market, I hope you have seen evidence of this in our analysis over the years. Further evidence is presented when you look at the impact of news and exogenous events on the markets.

Market expectations

Amazingly, there has been no exogenous event over the last year and a half which has had any effect upon the market trend. Sadly, the market has struck further all-time highs even after the horrific events witnessed in Las Vegas.

As I have noted time and again, exogenous events do not effect market direction until the market sentiment patterns have run their course. And, we can sadly add this event to the list of exogenous events which have not stopped this trend at all over the last year and a half, in addition to the Spanish referendum unrest seen at the same time:

Brexit – NOPE

Frexit – NOPE

Grexit - NOPE

Italian referendum - NOPE

Rise in interest rates - NOPE

Cessation of QE - NOPE

Terrorist attacks - NOPE

Crimea – NOPE

Trump – NOPE

Market not trading on fundamentals – NOPE

Low volatility – NOPE

Record high margin debt – NOPE

Hindenburg omens - NOPE

Syrian missile attack - NOPE

North Korea – NOPE

Record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico

Spanish referendum – NOPE

Las Vegas attack - NOPE

The overall market structure still suggests that as long as the SPX remains over 2487-2496 support, we can subdivide to the 2575SPX+ region by Thanksgiving before this wave (3) tops and provides us another pullback to the 2350-2400SPX region. However, if the market should break that upper support on the coming test of support, that provides initial warning that wave (3) has topped as an ending diagonal. For now, the bulls remain in charge, and negative exogenous events will continue to have no effect upon the market until this wave (3) pattern off the February 2016 lows has completed.

Prayers

Please join me in praying for those who lost their life in the horrific Las Vegas attack, along with those who were injured, and for those whose lives have been forever changed.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2017 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in