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Gold Price Balanced on a Knife Edge at $1200

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018 Sep 09, 2018 - 01:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The Gold price that began 2018 strongly continuing it's bull run from a Mid December 2017 swing low of 1238, rising to a February peak of $1365 before correcting to a March low of $1309 that set the scene for a trading range of $1365 to $1309 pending a breakout higher. Then two further attempts at breaking above $1365 failed to materialise, instead resulting in the Gold price breaking below $1309 support during May which put the Gold price on a decidedly downwards trend trajectory where each rally off each subsequent low failed to follow through, thus resulting in a relentless downtrend all the way to what at the start of the year would have seemed a completely unimaginable price for Gold to trade down to by Mid year of $1167.


My last look at the Gold price was during Gold strength, trading at £1342, barely off of its's high of $1365 that had galvanised much bullish expectations amongst gold bugs. However, unlike most at the time I warned that the most probable direction for the Gold price was a trend to well below $1300, and where I even penciled in a bottom target of $1250. Therefore my forecast was contrary to the prevailing bullish mantra at the time and as about as far as one could be able to infer a contrarian target for the Gold price i.e. targeting a trend to between $1240 to $1250, which it would trade down to over the following 5 months.

01 Feb 2018 - Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update

The gold price having hit my resistance area of $1375 is now under going its first significant correction of the year before it next attempts to break above resistance of $1375. So unfortunately for the Gold bugs, February looks set to be a month for the Gold price to correct and prepare for that next assault on $1375, which means to expect the Gold price to go much lower than the current $20 or so retracement ($1350), likely falling to below $1300, where an eventual bottom in the $1250 to $1280 support zone.

Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update

Now here we stand with the Gold price balancing on a knife edge of $1200. And so I will seek to answer the question in this analysis of what to expect next for the gold price for the whole of the remainder of 2018.

TREND ANALYSIS

The rest of this analysis is first being made available to Patrons who support my work. To get immediate access right now and First Access to ALL of my future analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold price trend forecast will be made available to non Patrons in approx 10 days time.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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