Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20
The Growing Weaponization of Space - 14th Feb 20
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? - 14th Feb 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days - 14th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 - 14th Feb 20
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold - 14th Feb 20
How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets - 14th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - 13th Feb 20
Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review - 13th Feb 20
Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow - 13th Feb 20
Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession - 13th Feb 20
PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… - 13th Feb 20
Bitcoin: "Is it too late to get in?" Get Answers Now - 13th Feb 20
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 - 13th Feb 20
Crude Oil Price Action – Like a Coiled Spring Already? - 13th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks - 12th Feb 20
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally - 12th Feb 20
Copper Market is a Coiled Spring - 12th Feb 20
Dow Theory Stock Market Warning from the Utilities Index - 12th Feb 20
How to Get Virgin Media Engineers to FIX Hub 3.0 Problems and NOT BS Customers - 12th Feb 20
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints - 12th Feb 20
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? - 12th Feb 20
Stock Market 2020 – A Close Look At What To Expect - 12th Feb 20
IBM AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 11th Feb 20
The US Dollar’s Subtle Message for Gold - 11th Feb 20
What All To Do Before Opening A Bank Account For Your Business - 11th Feb 20
How and When to Enter Day Trades & Swing Trade For Maximum Gains - 11th Feb 20
The Great Stock Market Dichotomy - 11th Feb 20
Stock Market Sector Rotation Should Peak Within 60+ Days – Part II - 11th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video - 11th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Strong Stock Market Rally Expected

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 May 15, 2019 - 03:17 PM GMT

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Stock-Markets The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal.  As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).

The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX.  It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).

So, we are not out of the woods just yet.  My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October.  The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August.  For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price.  This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.


Below, I have my preferred count (on shaky ground as I mentioned) and that is Wave B of “Y” terminated May 13th and it rallies hard into early July.  Early July is 9 months (39/40 week cycle) from the October 2018 top. The recent irregular top on the SPX on May 1 has me concerned that I could be wrong as wave ‘z’ would have counted out –xyz- itself, which is not likely with this kind of formation. It could be xyz “x” May 13th and then “y” into May 21 with “z” of Z into June 5th.

 If I’m wrong, at least we have a strong wave back up into May 21 to above the last top near SPX 2954 and that would count as “y” of an xyz Z Wave pattern). 2980 beckons this Friday with 2990/3000-ish by May 21.  The day after OPEX could sell-off hard as Mercury trines Pluto over the weekend.  Mercury trines Saturn on Thursday and that set-up portends a bullish tone for Friday, as we squeeze in between the two aspects.  The week looks bullish to me. Whatever comes after that may end up being the rub, we’ll see.  It bears watching May 21st through May 28th.  If the 28th fails to go higher than May 21st, watch out below!





Gold and the miners have diverged, as gold has become overbought while the mining sector is becoming oversold.  My take is, we have one more down draft for both into late next week to fulfill four 9-week cycle lows (36 weeks).  GDX could go below 19.00.  If it does, my opinion is that it will be a nice buying opportunity with a target of 26 in the coming months.



As you can see by the weekly chart above, I believe this to be a counter trend ABC rally.  The best buying opportunity may be early next year if the 4 year cycle has anything to do with it.

The chart below of the S&P 500 has my alternate count, which suggests a move to new highs by May 17-21 and then a hard drop into June 5th. The irregular top of May 1 and the xyz pattern (in orange) from April 23-May 13 is very bullish for the short term.  The alternative wave count has a huge drop from May 21st - June 5th.

Normally, when there is a break of a Rising Wedge, the expectation is for a false break, a rebound back to or inside the wedge (snap back rally) and then a water fall type decline. This alternative count , if it happens places the C wave top out toward August 1, and not early July (as the Dow charts show) with an equal wave of time and price. With the Trump/China banter going on, this could be what happens.

Brad Gudgeon
Editor of The BluStar Market Timer

www.blustarmarkettimer.info

The BluStar Market Timer was rated #1 in the world by Timer Trac in 2014, competing with over 1600 market timers. This occurred despite what the author considered a very difficult year for him. Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look atwww.blustarmarkettimer.com

Copyright 2019, BluStar Market Timer.  All rights reserved.
Disclaimer:  The above information is not intended as investment advice.  Market timers can and do make mistakes.  The above analysis is believed to be reliable, but we cannot be responsible for losses should they occur as a result of using this information.  This article is intended for educational purposes only. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

Brad Gudgeon Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules