Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF - 26th Oct 21
Food Prices & Farm Inputs Getting Hard to Stomach - 26th Oct 21
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? - 26th Oct 21
Dave Antrobus Welcomes Caribou to Award-Winning Group Inc & Co - 26th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend - 26th Oct 21
Investing in Crypto Currencies With Both Eyes WIDE OPEN! - 25th Oct 21
Is Bitcoin a Better Inflation Hedge Than Gold? - 25th Oct 21
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot - 25th Oct 21
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds - 25th Oct 21
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Next Great Depression in the Making

Economics / Great Depression II Jun 25, 2019 - 10:48 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Economics They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!

With all eyes focused on Facebook’s cryptocurrency reveal tomorrow, what the Fed will do this Wednesday, and Slack’s IPO on Thursday, all of which we’ll address in the coming days, let’s turn our attention to another major issue that is silently unfolding: the great baby bust. More than any of the current hot events, it will have a significant impact on the future of our economy and the success of your investments…

Decades before births peaked in 2007, I was projecting it would happen. But how could I know that? Easy. Because births fall when the economy slows, especially in the Economic Winter Season, which we’re in the latter part now.



A warning: I’ve got to get technical here to make my point clear. Bear with me…

The first wave of Millennial – or Generation Y – births peaked in 1990, at 4.16 million, just below the Baby Boomer peak of 4.3 million in 1957. The second wave, now increasingly called a new Generation Z or Zillennials, peaked in 2007 at 4.32 million, just barely abovethe Boomer peak.

The Boomer plateau peak was 40 years after the Bob Hope peak in 1921. That’s right on the typical 40 years generation cycle. However, the difference between the Boomer top in 1961 and the Y top in 1990 was just 29 years and between Y and Z was only 17 years.

The generation cycle is collapsing in the U.S. and our next four-season economic cycle will be shorter, more like 50 years, taking us back towards the Kondratieff Wave average 60-year rhythm.

That means we’ll get the next Spring Spending Wave peak around 2036-37, an inflation or summer peak around 2039-40, and a fall bubble boom peak around 2055-56… and here’s the kicker… a longer depression into around 2072 – 2073-plus.

That’s bad news for today’s young kids and future grandkids. The Fed’s actions today, won’t help them. Nothing Facebook or the next IPO or the Donald does will change this. Really, it’s up to you to get them ready and we’re here to help (something we’re focusing on this week in The Rich Investor, so be sure to read your emails). Particularly because, besides the numbers, these economic cycles will also have different drivers going forward.

With the emerging world, especially India and Southeast Asia, leading the way in the coming decades and next four-season economic cycle.

The massive baby booms in the western world all peaked between 1960 and 1964 and both exaggerated the magnitude of the inflation cycle, stretching that 60-year cycle to two 40-year generation booms and busts – 80 years from boom tops and between bottoms, like the depression bottoms of 1942 and the one I project for 2022.

But the inflation cycle that was always the foundation of the K-wave didn’t change. It continues to peak about every 60 years. It’s still the real four-season economic cycle rhythm.

Here’s what actual and projected birth and immigration trends say…

Births peaked at the top of the “real” fall boom in 2007 (before QE). They’ve fallen ever since, despite a modestly growing economy after the Great Recession of 2008-09 and the greatest stock bubble ever from QE.

The blue line is the U.S. birth rate. The green line includes legal and estimated illegal immigrants. Immigration had a huge impact on the immigration-adjusted birth index through the early 1970s. Immigration peaked in 2001 and the average immigrant is age 30. Since then the immigration impact has continued to narrow with the crash in immigrants from 2.71 million in 2001 to 1.00 million in 2015.

Note, that the next fall bubble boom from around 2045 – 2056 will be minimal due to the declining immigration trends.

When we see a stronger downturn and debt deleveraging into 2023 or so, births and immigration will plummet even faster.

Note my projections into around 2023 of about 3.0 million actual births and 3.4 million immigration-adjusted births. The birth lag for the Spending Wave should be 49 – 50 by then.

All of this is to warn you that the Millennial (Y Generation) Spending Wave decline is shaping up to be steeper than the one after the Bob Hope or even the Baby Boom generations. It points toward the next winter or depression season between 2057 and 2072/73.

Stock prices adjusted for inflation are not likely to exceed the 2019 projected top, and will then likely retest the projected 2022 bottom by 2073. That means a sideways market for the rest of your kids’ lives… unfortunately. But that’s why we will advise you – and them – to invest more in Asia and the best demographic sectors in coming booms.

The U.S. will fade more noticeably as a major power unless we both attract immigrants in the coming Economic Spring Boom – which is not typical historically – and/or we start living a lot longer to amplify our aging demographic trends. Such a life expectancy surge is likely to hit in the rising tide of the next 45-year Technology Cycle between 2032 and 2055…

That’s our last great hope, especially for your kids.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

P.S. Another way to stay ahead is by reading the 27 simple stock secrets that our Seven-Figure Trader says are worth $588,221. You’ll find the details here.

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2019 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in