Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24
THE GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE MEGA-TREND IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! - 3rd May 24
Banxe Reviews: Revolutionising Financial Transactions with Innovative Solutions - 3rd May 24
MRNA - The beginning of the end of cancer? - 3rd May 24
The Future of Gaming: What's Coming Next? - 3rd May 24
What is A Split Capital Investment Trust? - 3rd May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets

Stock-Markets / China US Conflict Aug 02, 2019 - 05:27 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.


First a reminder that the trade war is just one element of an unfolding multi-decade conflict between the emerging wannabe superpower China, attempting to break out of its box, against the worlds existing super power, the United States. And just to be clear there is no room for peaceful coexistence, that's not in the nature of super powers, instead they always seek full spectrum supremacy, economic, technological and military. As was the case with the Soviet Union, economic destruction that has left Russia a mere shell of its former self. A rust bucket of a former super power with rusting fleets of ships, now only able to express it's power through the hacking poorly protected desktop PC's or sending its military to places where they are unlikely to encounter much resistance such as Syria.

A reminder that China is busy building the infrastructure for it's Empire right across the world, fundamental to which is the One Belt Road and deep sea ports. That includes nations such as Pakistan (Gwadar), which just as the British Empire went from a series of trading companies to outright colonialism and theft of territory then so will China's trade roads and ports form the basis of a hoped for future Chinese military empire.

None of this is new of what Trump has done and what China is doing in the South China Sea, as in two pieces of in-depth analysis I set forth what I expected to follow in the US China War Mega-trend posted BEFORE Trump took office which are just as valid today as when first posted for the TREND firmly remains in the forecast direction! Trade, Economic, Cyber, Market, Corporate, Territory, Nuclear!

The Trump Reset - 2 The Putin Doctrine

The Trump trade war with China is now into it's third year, and still the mainstream press remains largely clueless at to what is actually going on and its consequences, which is why they keep getting caught out by surprise announcements that the Trade War and the likes of the North Korea conflict have NOT BEEN RESOLVED! Because they CANNOT be resolved given the mega-trend fundamentals at work of an emerging Super Power seeking to displace the existing Super Power.

Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint

Whilst today the talk is about trade wars, unfortunately it is highly probable that sooner or later we will see military conflict between the two powers, the primary trigger for which will be when China starts to rival the US in terms of military power, that the US will likely seek to pre-empt.

Military and Economic Power

  United States China India Russia UK Japan France Germany Saudi Arabia
Military Spending $600bn $220bn $50bn $66bn $58bn $45bn $47bn $40bn $85bn
Economy $18.6tr $11.5tr $2.25tr $1.3tr $2.7tr $4.7tr $2.5tr $3.5tr $0.65tr
Population 0.33bn 1.38bn 1.35bn 0.145 0.065 0.127 0.065 0.082 0.033

 

US / China Trade War

My consistent view right from the outset has remained that China will LOSE the Trump Trade War.

6th July 2018 - Trump Destroying US Empire in Trade War Against China, Europe and Canada

The strong statements out of China of tit for tat responses to US Tariffs should be taken with a giant pinch of salt for the performance of the Shanghai index makes it crystal clear of who is the big loser in this Trade War. China is and WILL continue to LOSE this Trade War! So it is highly likely there will at some point be a Trade War induced financial panic in China.

The following graph illustrates the huge trade imbalance that continues to persist between the US and China of over $300 billion that has had a devastating effect on the US jobs market as it converts into the US effectively employing upwards of a net 25 million Chinese workers, an imbalance that the Trump Presidency has been attempting to address through trade tariffs with limited results to date against what had been a run away trend.

The current state of the trade war has the US levying tariffs of 25% on $250 billion of Chinese imports, whilst China has retaliated with tariffs of 25% on $110 billion of US imports.

Whilst the mainstream media is once more convincing themselves that a resolution to the trade war could be just around the corner. However, Trump's latest tweets reveal someone who is reveling in the trade conflict. And likely aiming to use it as a corner stone of his re-election campaign.

Therefore rather than a resolution to the US China Trade war, instead it is highly probable that Trump will slap a new round of tariffs on the remaining $320 billion or so of tariff free Chinese imports so as to appeal to his voter base in the run up to the 2020 election.

China Stock Market Trade War Reality Check

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast

  • China Stock Market Trade War Reality Check
  • China Economy
  • China SSEC Corporate Earnings
  • Technical Analysis
  • China SSEC Stock Market Conclusion

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis

  • NASDAQ
  • GBP/USD
  • EuroDollar Futures
  • Bitcoin Update
  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • EUR/RUB

Recent Analysis includes:

Your mega-trends investing analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in