Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.

And then we have political chaos, both in the UK where we have a crippled Prime Minister trying to trigger a general election so that Britain can get the damn Brexit done and dusted instead of the permanent paralysis that the UK finds itself in, one of a REMAIN Westminster majority determined to subvert the will of the people where the latest ploy deployed is the so called SURRENDER ACT aimed at ensuring that Britain can NEVER actually LEAVE the EU hence the Governments desperate attempts to trigger a general election that Westminster's REMAIN MP's are running scared of.

Which brings us to the United States and the launch of formal Impeachment inquiry by the Democrats against Trumps various nefarious activities. The only surprising thing is that it's taken this long to get things going for before Trump took office I imagined he would been ejected from office by now. So has done well to be still around in the White house. Nevertheless it is inducing market uncertainty.

That and growing economic uncertainty in advance of soon to kick in corporate earnings season all of which have contributed towards putting downward pressure on stock prices these past few weeks that saw the Dow retreat from it's attempt at setting a new all time high early September with it's last close at 26,820.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019

My in-depth analysis of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in a forecast for the Dow to trend towards 28,000 by Mid September 2019 before correcting into October.

My last update of 31st August 2019 had the Dow at a significant deviation from the trend forecast of -4.5%.

However that analysis concluded to expect a strong September with the Dow at targeting a trend to at least 27,400 for a probable double top pattern ahead of a seasonal weak October that 'should' set the stage for a Santa rally.

31st August 2019 - Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide

This analysis suggests the Dow should have another run higher at it's all time high during September, i.e. target a break of 27,360 before it can reach 28,000 by perhaps early October. However, more probable now is that the Dow is unable to break above 27,360 and turns lower for October with a double top pattern of sorts.

So in conclusion, in terms of the bull market, nothing much has changed, were still trending towards 28,000, even if we fails to get there this time i.e. by the end of September ahead of a weak October. Likewise expectations for later in the year remain largely intact i.e. a santa rally towards Dow 30k. The prospects for which I will seek to update towards the end of September.

Which brings us to the current state and the conclusion of my trend forecast.

The Dow had a strong September, hitting the 1st target high of 27,300 before turning lower to the last close of 26820 with a pattern that resembles a double top of sorts. Therefore this analysis will seek to determine the trend for the remainder of 2019, where my existing expectations are for a weak October, followed by a strong November / December towards a new all time high as iterated in my updates of the past 6 months.

The rest of this analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast into the end of 2019 has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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