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Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Feb 26, 2020 - 03:39 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.


However, the September high marked the start of a period of consolidation that just went on and on all the way into the end of November when off a $1446 low the Gold bull finally awoke with the price starting to trend higher once more, to end the year at $1520. With Gold rocketing to above the September high taking place early January when the drama queen in the White house launched his own rockets with the risks of igniting a new war in the Middle East, that luckily Iran proved incompetent at countering, including shooting down a passenger plane by mistake. This illustrates that we are living in an age of being ruled by MORONS! And whilst all this is going on the British media are wholly focused on just ONE story, MEGAN and HARRY tripe!

GOLD TREND ANALYSIS 2020

QE4EVER

The same money printing mega-trend drivers pushing stocks into the stratosphere are continuing to inflate all asset prices, precious metals and other commodities.

So continued upwards bias because as I've often iterated, once money printing starts it does not stop! However, markets usually tend to discount the future and so will have priced in future QE to some degree, so we may see a pause in the Gold bull trend after the recent surge to $1610.

US DOLLAR

Normally there tends to be an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the Dollar rises, the gold price tends to fall and visa versa.

The dollar has been drifting lower since peaking in September 2019 just shy of $99. Where my analysis at that time was to expect the USD to trend lower to 95.50. Overall there is not much to indicate that the USD is going to move out of a range of between 98 and 95 anytime soon. So expect a tight trading range for at the first half of 2020, which is overall neutral for Gold. Beyond which it may make a break lower to target 93 which would be bullish for Gold. So implies a quiet first half of 2020 for Gold, with the bull moves more likely during the second half of the year.

LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS

The long-term chart shows Gold retreating from it's first attempts to clear heavy resistance in the $1530 to $1630 area that I suspect will take significant effort to over come to then target $1800. So at least implies to expect several failed attempts to clear this resistance area before Gold can finally target a trend to $1800, so likely we are in for a period of consolidation.

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020

  • Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • QE4EVER
  • US DOLLAR
  • LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS 
  • Gold / SIlver Ratio
  • Trend Analysis 
  • ELLIOT WAVES
  • Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion 

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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