Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
4.INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! - 10th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Britain's Hyper Housing Market - 27th May 22
Lower Copper price due to Chinese lockdowns is only Temporary - 27th May 22
How the United States Conquered Inflation Following the Civil War - 27th May 22
Greater Depression Now!? - 27th May 22
Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? - 27th May 22
The Dark Side of the Internet - Cybersecurity - 27th May 22
Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order - 24th May 22
Globalists Convene to Plan Central Bank Digital Currencies - 24th May 22
After Recent Highs, What’s Next for the Gold Junior Miners? - 24th May 22
Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - 21st May 22
Why Is Crude Oil Ignoring US Inventories? - 21st May 22
Here is Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold Mining Stocks - 21st May 22
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 20th May 22
US Real Estate Investors – Is There An End In Sight? - 20th May 22
How Technology Affected the Gaming Industry - 20th May 22
How To Set And Achieve Reasonable Goals For Your Company - 20th May 22
How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall? - 19th May 22
Bitten by FANG? Clocked by Cryptos? -- 'Air Pockets' Everywhere - 19th May 22
Northern General Hospital Orthopedics Fractures and and Ankle Clinic Consultations Real Patient Experience - 19th May 22
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis

Politics / Pandemic Mar 26, 2020 - 07:56 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.


Still Italy's CFR of 9% is shockingly high! i.e. implies to expect over 12,500 deaths and it remains to be seen to what extent the CFR could worsen yet given that Italy's healthcare system already being overwhelmed let alone potentially face a more than doubling in the number of infected patients by Mid April.

So Italy is a warning of what to expect if a nation does not act quickly to contain and manage outbreaks South Korea style the consequences of which are that severe Panic actions are implemented to HALT the pandemic, such as shutting down the whole nation, and that there is a LAG of about 2 weeks between measures taken and results in slowing the progression of a parabolic pandemic. Thus Italy's total lock down actions this week will manifest in early April by which time the total infected in Italy could reach 130,000 before starting to flattening out towards 140,000.

Thus the big question mark is can the US and UK avoid becoming Italy 2.0 for both have been slow to act where the UK 2 weeks from now could be seeing an CFR of 9% and the US 4 weeks from now. Or with advance warning act to pull off a miracle by resolving towards South Koreas 1% that so far rather than being the norm is turning out to be an outlier as most nations are resolving towards a CFR of between 3% and 6%.

In terms of infections trend, if the UK and US followed Italy's curve then the UK would start to flatten out in about 4 weeks time and the US in about 6 weeks time. So around Mid April for the UK and early May for the US. However in terms of the rates of infection, I am expecting both nations to be at an advantage to Italy and should in relative terms resolve to lower rates of infections. For they have NO excuse NOT listening to the messages screaming and crying out of Italy!

The rest of this extensive analysis that concludes in detailed Coronavirus trend forecasts for the UK and US, folowed by stock market implications of has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - US and UK Coronavirus Pandemic Projections and Trend Forecasts to End April 2020

  • Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from the Coronavirus CRASH
  • UK Coronavirus Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy 
  • US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic 
  • Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve
  • Case Fatality Rate Analysis
  • Italy CFR and Infections Trend Analysis 
  • US and UK CFR
  • UK Coronavirus Trend forecast
  • United States Coronavirus Trend forecast
  • Vaccines and Treatments
  • CoronaVirus Forecast Stock Market Trend Implications

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in