Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast

Politics / Pandemic Apr 01, 2020 - 06:51 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

So Boris Johnson is infected and self isolating, Matt Hancock the Health Minster is infected and self isolating, Chris Whitty the Chief Medical officer is infected and self isolating. Westminister is now turning into a hottest of UK hotspots as the officials and MP's failed to practice that which they preached. Maybe with these idiots out of the picture the nation can act more competently in containing the pandemic. Meanwhile the government representative at the daily briefings has started mentioning that if the UK can keep deaths below 20,000 than that would be a good thing! What's South Korea's number? 150! CRIMINAL! That's what the governments response to Coronavirus has been CRIMINAL! Now there are even reports that the government is under reporting the number of deaths perhaps in attempts to average out the numbers over a month rather than to post spikes that would panic healthcare workers and the general public.


Of course the hidden agenda all along has been one of fostering HERD IMMUNITY amongst the population with the goal of achieving a 60% infection rate as my video from several weeks ago illustrated. Which is why they kept the Schools open for a good 2 weeks longer than they should have done, only closing on the 20th of March, a decision that will cost many thousands of lives!

UK Government Implements Coronavirus Herd Immunity Protocol, Plans for 1.4 Million Covid-19 Deaths

On the plus side the UK began work on converting large exhibition centres across the UK into huge field hospitals, all named as Nightingale hospitals, with beds ranging from 2000 to 5000 each. Though don't be under much illusion that they will be able to treat at anywhere near same level of regular hospitals, instead high concentration of viral particles will mean people sent there will be at a higher risk of dearth.

However, every action the government has announced to date is a case of chasing the curve rather than being proactive in containing the virus, for if they had been competent and contained the virus South Korea style than this weeks total shutdown and the panic building of temporary hospitals with thousands of beds would have been completely unnecessary!

Even worse, the UK has barely enough ventilators to cope with the current load, let alone for what is to come. Where Dyson the vacuum cleaner says they are going to build 10,000 ventilators, which would be great news were it not for the fact that they state first deliveries will be in about 100 days time! Which where this pandemic is concerned is about 90 days too LATE!

So it's more probable that simpler devices will emerge over the coming week rather than full blown ventilators which clearly are not as easy to make as the Health Secretary was propagandising barely a week ago before he fell victim to Covid-19 due to not following his own social distancing advice.

The NHS staff have been badly let down by an incompetent government, though most governments have proved incompetent other than that of South Korea and Germany which has nearly 7 times the number of critical care beds per head of population as does the UK, which is being reflected in a far lower number of deaths despite having more people testing positive.

My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected tested positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

The latest number of infected is 19,522 which is marginally better than forecast (21,777). Whilst actual deaths reported of 1228 is also marginally better than forecast (1447).

So it appears that the UK is on track for about 8,100 deaths by the end of April which is better than what the governments spokesman started announcing this weekend (for the first time) that if the UK achieved less than 20,000 deaths then that would be considered a success.

The rest of this extensive analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work - US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector

  • Paying the Price for Acting Too Late
  • UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast
  • US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast
  • Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications
  • Coronavirus Global Recession 2020
  • Existing Stock Market Trend Expectations
  • AI Stocks Q1 Buying Levels Current State

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2020 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in