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Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II

Currencies / US Dollar Apr 08, 2021 - 02:58 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Currencies

In this second part of our exploration of the recent US Dollar rally and what it may be reacting to in relation to the current US stock market highs and continued rally, we will explore some of the underlying factors that are translating into US Dollar strength while the US stock market continues to push higher.

In the first part of this research article, we highlighted the US Dollar reaction to the 2008-09 credit market crisis and how the US Dollar actually started to bottom/rally in early 2008 – just as the rollover top in the US stock markets continued to setup.  The way the US Dollar reacts to stress factors in the global markets is to strengthen as a safe haven as capital is constantly seeking the best environment for investment and profits.  When the markets enter a period of turmoil, the US Dollar typically begins to strengthen before the global markets really begin to react to the fear or turmoil.

The recent news of large financial institutions and hedge funds taking large losses and closing operations is somewhat similar to the Lehman event of 2008.  These types of larger corporate debt collapses have wide-range global market effects.  Sometimes, these events can ripple into other global corporations who engaged in this level of financing or credit functions.  For example, Credit Suisse’s attempt to recoup potential losses from the Greensill collapse may be a very complicated and fruitless process according to a recent Wall Street Journal article.


Weekly US Dollar Shows Uptrend Starting

The current US Dollar Weekly chart, below, shows how the US Dollar has strengthened over the past 3 months and how this current uptrend aligns with the $89 lows from early 2018.  One of the most interesting aspects of this chart is the peak in early 2020, as the COVID-19 virus market collapse bottomed, which was followed by an extended decline.  As mentioned earlier, the US Dollar acts as a safe haven during times of uncertainty and chaos.  Obviously, the initial COVID-19 market selloff prompted quite a bit of uncertainty and chaos, prompting the US Dollar to rise nearly 9% in just two weeks.  Does the current upside trending in the US Dollar translate into more uncertainty and chaos in the markets?

Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!

The recent bottom on this Weekly US Dollar chart happened on January 6, 2021. This was the day that Congress certified the US state electors.  It was also the day that chaos took place in Washington DC.  From that point onward, the US Dollar began a decidedly upward price trend.  Since that low on January 6, the US Dollar has risen over 4.60%.  Over that same time, the SPY has rallied more than 7.5%, which obviously fails to show any US or global market concerns.

Weekly Smart Cash vs. US Dollar Correlations

The following chart shows the US Dollar (as a GOLD line) and our Custom Smart Cash Index (as a BLUE line) and highlights the threshold of the US Dollar that usually prompts a breakdown in price in the stock market.  The ORANGE threshold level on this chart for the US Dollar is 94.10 and the PURPLE threshold level on this chart 99.50.  Once the US Dollar reaches levels above the ORANGE threshold, the SPY becomes much more volatile and tends to retrace lower over time.  Once the US Dollar reaches above the PURPLE threshold, it appears the US Dollar reaches major resistance, stalls, and contracts, which prompts a fairly large upside price trend in the SPY.

Currently, the US Dollar Index is trading just above 93.00 and it just 1.1 away from the ORANGE threshold.  Should the US Dollar continue to rally over the next few weeks and months, our research suggests the US stock market will enter a period of increased volatility with broad sector trending/rotation.  As you can see on this chart, near the end of 2018, the US Dollar Index rallied above the ORANGE threshold while the Custom Smart Cash Index entered a period of extended price volatility (2019 through the COVID-19 bottom in 2020).  Once the US Dollar Index fell back below the ORANGE threshold (July/August 2020), the Custom Smart Cash Index began to rally estensively.

The current rally in the US stock market will likely continue until the US Dollar Index moves comfortably over the ORANGE threshold, there is a strong possibility the US stock market will enter a period of extended volatility and trending.  That means that the current bullish price trend may enter a broader rally phase – targeting a new excess phase peak.  Or, it may shift into more of a sideways price trend with a broad range of price rotation – like what happen in 2015 to 2016.

Interestingly enough, near the end of 2016, as the US stock market bottomed and began to rally, the sectors that lead that rally included precious metals, miners, utilities, regional banking, and technology (later in 2017).  This suggests we need to watch metals & miners as well as utilities and regional banking sectors later in 2021.

Currently, the leading sector trends are Real Estate, REITS, US Financials, Global Infrastructure, Global Natural Resources, Technology, Consumer Services, and Aerospace & Defense.  These leading sectors suggest many traders/investors believe the next few years will be filled with various advantages in technology, raw materials, consumer activities and infrastructure/defense spending.  Get ready for some really big trends in various sectors and be prepared to jump into some of these bigger trends.

Don’t miss the opportunities in the broad market sectors over the next 6+ months.    Staying ahead of these sector trends is going to be key to developing continued success in these markets.  As some sectors fail, others will begin to trend higher.  Learn how BAN Trader Pro can help you spot the best trade setups. Learning to profit from these bigger trends and sector rotation will make a big difference between success and failure.  If you are not prepared for these sector rotations, then you can sign up now for my FREE webinar that teaches you how to find, enter, and profit from only those sectors that have the most strength and momentum. Staying ahead of sector trends is going to be key to success in volatile markets.

For those who believe in the power of trading on relative strength, market cycles, and momentum but don’t have the time to do the research every day then my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you with daily market reports, research, and trade alerts. More frequent or experienced traders have been killing it trading options, ETFs, and stocks using my BAN Hotlist ranking the hottest ETFs, which is updated daily for my premium subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

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