Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Nov 09, 2021 - 04:28 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target.  Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at agratianj@gmail.com

 

Bullish Trend Continues

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low:  ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of StockCharts)

SPX daily chart

Last week SPX tacked on another one hundred points as the strong intermediate uptrend which emerged from the base formed by the corrective phase ending on 10/13 continued uninterrupted.  A good part of that advance came after last Wednesday’s FOMC report which reassured traders that the Fed would not take any immediate action that would slow the economic recovery, as well as repeated comments by Fed chairman Powell that he did not consider the tick up in inflation to be a serious threat.  These reassurances brought an immediate 40-point advance, but there was more to come!  After a brief consolidation into Friday morning, more good news in the form of a stronger than anticipated jobs report, propelled the index nearly 50 points higher before some profit-taking finally took hold. 

As discussed previously, the base which was formed into mid-October has the potential to send SPX to at least 4790, and perhaps as high as 4960.  With the price acceleration which boosted the index this past week, it could reach the first target before coming to the current short-term cycle top.  Subsequent market action will help us evaluate if the higher target is also reachable.

So far, there is no sign that the 7-year cycle is having any effect on prices.  That could change after early 2022.

  •  
  • DJIA daily
  •  
  • The DOW also profited from the bullish news background to extend its trend even higher above its five-month consolidation pattern and, like SPX, ended the week overbought, but with no sign that it is ready for its next correction.  However, the McClellan oscillator which is posted below may be – is – telling another story.  It had made a new high during the previous week, but last week the breadth indicator underperformed prices by a considerable margin.  Does it mean that a consolidation in the price index is around the corner?  In addition, a cursory evaluation of the price structure reveals a 5-wave pattern since 10/1, suggesting that we could be approaching a short-term high in that index.
  •  
  •  
  • SPX hourly chart
  •  
  • The base which was completed in October is divisible into phases, each of which resulting in a potential count on the P&F chart.  These counts specify price levels where prices might be expected to pause in an uptrend, until the entire base count has been satisfied and the current trend is at risk of reversing. 
  •  
  • The phase structure of the September-October base had alerted us that a pause might occur at about SPX 4650.  In addition, a minor cycle was due to bottom toward the end of the week or early next week.  Any concern that the index would consolidate after reaching 4650 was quickly dissipated by the market’s reaction to the FOMC comments and bullish jobs numbers.  The index did pull back to 4681 after it had shot-up to 4718 on Friday morning, which could be attributed to normal profit-taking, or to the bottoming of the minor cycle.  Either way, a trivial occurrence within the context of the overall trend which shows no real sign of slowing its advance; and with 4790 still very much on the radar before the current short-term cycle reaches its apex. 
  •  
  •  
  • USD dollar daily
  •  
  • The dollar was not able to make additional progress last week, but neither did it reverse its short-term trend, so we’ll need a little more data before we can gauge whether or not it can extend its rally to the slightly higher resistance level.
  •  
  •  
  • GDX gold miners - daily
  •  
  • GDX found support at the extension of its downtrend line and bounced.  While last week’s action was bullish and the index may be ready to challenge overhead resistance, if the dollar is able to advance a little higher over the near-term, it may deter the index from making any further immediate progress. 
  •  
  •  
  • PAAS – daily
  •  
  • PAAS is also making a bullish pattern after finding support at ~22.50.  Like GDX, it may be at the mercy of what the dollar does over the near term.
  •  
  • BNO Brent oil fund - daily
  •  
  • BNO has started to consolidate after reaching its 22-target.  So long as it remains above its 50-dma, its correction will be limited, but it will probably extend down to its primary trend line if it closes below it. 
  •  
  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  
  • Boosted by reports that were taken as bullish for the market by traders, SPX continued the strong intermediate uptrend
  • which originated in early October.  Higher prices are likely before a meaningful corretion can take hold.

Andre

Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com.

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in