Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Jan 11, 2022 - 03:45 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

With the market breaking the support I noted last week, it has sent a warning shot across the bow of the bulls. But, before I discuss my market view, I want to first address something that you are all thinking: The Fed caused the decline this past week.

Well, before you go off so certain in your theory, consider that when the Fed had the actual meeting a few weeks ago and announced that it was going to tighten, the market rallied 140 points off its low that day. Yes, the market rallied on the tightening announcement. And, when the market dropped when the Fed minutes to that same meeting came out, you want me to accept that the Fed “caused” the drop?

I have said it many times and I will say it again: While a news event can be a catalyst to a market move, the substance of that news is not going to provide you with an indication for the direction of the move. Here we have a clear instance where the market received the same message regarding the Fed’s tightening two weeks apart. One instance saw the market move up strongly by 140 points, and the other saw the market move down by 110 points.


Any person who is viewing these events objectively cannot come to a reasonable conclusion that the exact same substance within a news event “caused” both a rally and a decline two weeks apart. Rather, the reasonable and objective conclusion is not that the news event caused both a rally and a decline, but that market sentiment two weeks ago was positive and placed a positive spin on the news event, whereas the market sentiment was turning negative when the second announcement was made two weeks later.

While you can always close your eyes to the truth, that does not make it any less true. I don’t ask much from you, other than you be honest with yourself.

“Geese are but Geese tho’ we may think ‘em Swans; and Truth will be Truth tho’ it sometimes prove mortifying and distasteful.” - Ben Franklin

And, if you want further examples of when the market moved exactly opposite the Fed news or plans, feel free to read this article I wrote some time ago:

Sentiment Speaks: I Fought The Fed... And I Won

As far as the market is concerned, before we broke support, I was expecting two higher highs, with the potential we can even exceed 4900SPX in the 2nd high. However, with support broken, it has become much more precarious.

And, I warned you last week about the higher risk:

“But, I want to again highlight my larger degree expectation. I still think we can see a 7-10% pullback in the market in early 2022. While my preference is to begin that pullback from a bit higher region than where we are right now, I do want to note that we have approximately 100-150 points of potential upside, whereas the downside is 300-350 points. So, clearly, risks have now risen and will continue to rise as we move towards the 4900SPX region.”

While I am not quite as confident that we can get one more higher high before we begin the decline towards the 4400SPX region, I would say that as long as we hold the 4635SPX support region, then I can still look for one more rally towards the 4860-82SPX region to top us off before we turn down to the 4400SPX region. However, if we break that support, and continue down below 4600SPX, it opens the door to a direct move down to the 4400SPX region sooner rather than later.

Ultimately, the current environment has become much more precarious and I think it is a high probability that we will see 4400SPX in the coming months. The only question that I still have is if the market can strike a higher high in the 4860-4882SPX region before we begin that drop to 4400SPX. And as long as we hold 4635SPX, I will be looking for that rally to a higher high.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. He recently founded FATRADER.com, a live forum featuring some of the top fundamental analysts online today to showcase research and elevate discussion for traders & investors interested in fundamental rather than technical analysis.

© 2022 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in