Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Current State
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Apr 10, 2022 - 05:08 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
Following which my expectations were for the Dow to target a trend to $31k as illustrated by the graph from my last article
The 2nd leg of the downtrend following the corrective rally is now under way with the Dow and other indices BREAKING below support that resulted in a panic sell off on Thursday's open that had my phone notifications pinging like crazy as buy limit orders were being triggered all in the opening minutes at well below where they were set which I am sure had buy the dip brigade who do not understand what is going on SCREAMING at their stock charts as their earlier buy the DIP FAILED, Perhaps RESULTING IN PANIC SELLING OUT OF LOSNG POSITIONS right at the very LOW of the most recent LOW!
This is how those who bought the dip a couple of weeks ago would have experienced yesterday's opening sell off, likely then taking the bounce to call it a day and EXIT their longs. Or else permanently sat on the sidelines convinced that stocks will go much lower, just as only a few weeks ago many failed to sell convinced that there was going to be a blow off top. This is what happens when investors expose themselves to FOOLTUBE, MSM and the BlogosFear! If you follow that tripe then you are either selling or being stopped out because all those fools advocate putting in stops at levels that usually turn out to be exactly where markets bottom! The blind leading the blind!
Instead this was me during yesterdays panic sell off, just like Billy Ray Valentine buying target stocks at deep discounts as the panic selling FOMO fools sent stock prices sharply lower on Thursdays open, significantly expanding my exposure to stocks!
As for what happens next, we'll so far everything appears on queue to follow the trend trajectory for a volatile weak first half of 2022 that looks like resolving in a stronger second half of the year. The Dow remains on target towards achieving $31k in a volatile trend lower, a lot of wild swings up and down as I warned to expect months ago so I buy whenever opportunities present themselves as individual stocks tend to do their own thing.
Everyone wants to know if this was the bottom, just as a couple of weeks ago I was being asked if Dow 33k was the bottom, NO it was NOT the bottom. Though in reality I don't give a fig where the actual bottom will be as all I am doing is buying the deviations from the highs rather than trying to buy the bottom so whenever stocks plunge to new lows I WILL BE BUYING usually via limit orders as was the case yesterday or via direct at the market orders that I tend to share live in the patron comments. The more good stocks fall the more I buy! Of course I track exposure to each stock but remember I did SELL 80% of my AI stocks portfolio going into the HIGHS! So I have plenty of ammo to fire at this stocks BEAR MARKET as I continue to scale into positions as and when opportunities present themselves towards the Buying levels I gave many weeks ago that act as good markers that represent deep deviations from the highs of upto 50% for some stocks.
In the long-run the only thing that will matter is if one is invested or not, as where prices bottom will be irrelevant!
You are either invested or you are not, that's it, nothing more.
Though I very much doubt stocks bottomed yesterday, I suspect this bear market has a lot further to run. We need to see BLOOD ON THE STREETS!
INVEST AND FORGET DOES NOT MEAN BUY GARBAGE IT MEANS TO BUY GOOD COMPANIES FOR GOOD REASONS WHEN FAIRLY PRICED AND THEN FORGET ABOUT THE STOCK PRICE BECAUSE THAT WILL YOYO ALL OVER THE PLACE BETWEEN FOMO MANIAS AND EXTREME PESSIMISM, likely every other day!
My investing time horizon is to remain invested for as long as the company remains GOOD and does not become overly overvalued in which case I would seek to reduce exposure the more overvalued the stock becomes as was the case during the second half of last year where by the time I was done I had sold out of 80% of my AI stocks portfolio due to extreme over valuations and this despite adding to to Intel and Facebook.
This article was an except for my recent analysis on continuing to capitalise on the downward spiral in stock prices in response to first Inflation Panic and now plus Ukraine War Panic. With the primary focus on identifying 5 small cap tech growth stocks to add to my High Risk stocks portfolio out of a short list of 50 stocks.
World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War!
What Putin Plans for Ukraine
JRS.L Capitalising on Russia's War CRASHED Stocks
THE 2020's INFLATION MONSTER!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State With Updated Buying Levels
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META?
FACEBOOK RINSE AND REPEAT
INVESTING LESSON - HAVE A PLAN AND THEN EXECUTE IT!
HIGH RISK STOCKS - INVEST AND FORGET
High Risk Stocks Portfolio Revised Buying Levels
GROWTH STOCKS TO CAPITALISE ON THE PANIC OF 2022
1. XXXX - RANK 1 - $121.8, PE 7.8, EGF 38%
2. XXXX - RANK 1 - $58.5, PE 9.9, EGF 30%
3. XXXX- RANK 2 - $16.7, PE 8.7, EGF 33%
4. XXXX - RANK 2 - $89.5, PE 17.2, EGF 23%
5. XXXX - RANK 2 - $49.7 - PE 196, EGF 188%
That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Whilst my most recent just posted analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here!
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
My Main Analysis Schedule
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Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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