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The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK

Politics / New World Order Jun 25, 2022 - 10:50 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

In my last analysis I laid out why Ray Dalio was wrong about the rise of China, that according to his thesis was set to displace the US and herald in a New Chinese World Order, where I even went so far as to make the following video to delve deeper into why Ray Dalio was wrong and hinted at where the new empire could emerge from.


Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About Rise of China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

Which following this analysis suggests I may have been more on the mark than I thought I was at the time - CANZUK

The UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand could become the NEXT EMPIRE to rule the world (what's left of it!) Courtesy of CLIMATE CHANGE because ALL of these nations to varying degree BENEFIT from Climate Change (Australia less so, more 50/50).

I would imagine that most recognise that Candia will be a huge beneficiary of climate change as it becomes more temperate and hospitable that will take in the worlds huddled masses in their hundreds of millions, probably many tens of millions of americans will become dual national Canadians.

And then at the opposite end of the world we have New Zealand that will become the Japan of the southern Hemisphere! Whilst the UK will become more temperate along the same lines as Canada as the central hub of the emerging CANZUK Empire with a population that will probably exceed 1 billion whilst continental America and China disappear beneath huge dust clouds.

However, there is one more nation that could come to rule the world due to climate change and that is RUSSIA! It may take a revolution to get things going but as Russia becomes more temperate it will enjoy the same explosive growth as Canada. So perhaps a 100 years from now rather than the super powers of America and China vying to rule the world it will be CANZK vs Russia that will have soaked up a large chunk of the population of the rest of the West.

However, just as the US would at least contemplate invading Canada then so will CHINA facing climate death contemplate invading Siberia so as to create China 2,0, in advance of which China will seek to destabilise Russia. do their utmost for Russia to break apart so that China can march in and take Siberia,

NEW ZEALAND the NEXT JAPAN?

Given that climate change will benefit the Northernmost nations and the southern most nations then in terms of long-term investing that is where one should focus ones investments. Thus Canada, North Europe including the UK, Alaska, RUSSIA and a the opposite ends of the pole Southern most and Western South America, and NEW ZELAND.

Of all possibilities New Zealand probably offers the greatest potential that climate change looks set to deliver huge expansion of in terms of population and economic activity New Zealand's current population is just 5 million that over the next 50 years could easily expand ten fold to 50 million and given climate change dynamics that may turn out to be an under estimation as the worlds climate distressed masses head off to the climate change safe havens.

Which implies huge upside for this relatively small nation that is far from most's investing radar, and thus New Zealand is the first of my Climate Change investing destinations where I have settled on playing safe by selecting the Ishares MSCI New Zealand ETF, ENZL as a long-term multi-decade vehicle that has 97% exposure to the New Zealand across some 23 large cap stocks..

Performance to date has been akin to a sleeper as New Zealand continues to trundle along off the grid of most investors. So yes whilst to date it has come nowhere near to that of the S&P. However going forward that could be it's greatest strength because it does NOT comprise ANY US stocks so offers maximum diversification to the climate change mega-trend. And given that New Zealand in stock market terms is a sleeper then it offers the potential to scale into a position over a number of years each time the indices deviate from there highs so is not exposed to the shrill cries for an always imminent bottom as has been the case during the current bear market.

In valuation terms ENZL trades on a PE of 16, which is set against it's FOMO high of X30 and 5 year low of 11.7, so is at about half it's high with perhaps scope to trend lower to X14.

Technically ENZL bounced off support at $45, which if breaks would target a trend to $40. In terms of buying levels I would seek to accumulate for the very long run at between $46 and $40 whilst collecting a 3% dividend and then wait for climate change to do it's work. so what I would do is accumulate this year and then forget about it for TEN YEARS! Of course most don't have the patience to do that!

As for New Zealand's property market, I will save a price analysis for my third piece in this series, but it's safe to assume if I lived in New Zealand I would be buying LAND within or on outskirts of city limits, BUY LAND BEFORE the gold rush starts! And it maybe worth investigating New Zealand REITs, though personally I don't like rates, they tend not to be good long-term performers, too much debt.

I will likely do a similar exercise for other climate change beneficiary nations, Canada, Alaska, Northern Europe and Russia, RUSSIA!!! Russia is pending the end of totalitarianism to rise to become a true GREAT POWER, it has the potential to become the NEXT United States all courtesy of climate change, RUSSIA IS THE PLACE TO BE INVESTED FOR THE VERY LONG-RUN FOR GENERATONAL WEALTH CREATION! Akin to investing in the US during the depths of the 1930's Great Depression! That's what it's like to invest in Russia today! Though it remains to be seen of what I am invested in survives the Ukraine war bloodbath to make it to the other side of the PUTRID DEPRESSION, Max Risk vs Max Reward.

The bottom line is climate change is REAL and we have long since passed the point of no return which whilst highly damaging for most nations however does benefit some nations of which Canada, Alaska, Northern Europe, Russia and New Zealand, that look set for explosive growth both in terms of population and economies where in less than 100 hundred years time the likes of New Zealand could come to rise to become one of the worlds great powers either on it's own or as part of a UK, Canada,. Australian Union so that their collective security deters the likes of the US and China from climate charge distress land grabs, where Australia's land mass allows for internal migration to avoid the worse of climate change.

Can Tech Come to the Rescue?

I imagine to counter global warming one would need to REFLECT the suns rays back into space. Thus it is within human capability to spread particles in the stratosphere that reflect some of the solar energy hitting the earth and thus act to lessen the global warming catastrophe. However all of the movies suggest that this always tend to result in unintended consequences, usually resulting in an even worse outcome such as an Ice Age.

And it could spark climate wars, i.e. the USA wants to cool the climate whilst Russia looks forward to global warming so that it can finally gain productive access to most of it's landmass and coastline.

This article is an excerpt from my recent exensive analysis of the state of the stocks bear market and more AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game, Climate Change Housing Market Impact and the Next Empires that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
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  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
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Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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